Canada-China Brief: Anand on China at Shangri-La, Joly's Indo-Pacific advisors & more

This week's edition covers Defence Minister Anand's criticism of China in Singapore, Foreign Minister Joly's new Indo-Pacific advisory committee, Tory blame of Chinese election interference, and more.  

First, here's the latest from IPD's Asia program:

IPD's Roundup

Canada’s dilemma: China and the ‘rules-based international order’

In new analysis for IPD's China Strategy Project, Research Fellow Zachary Paikin argues that "Ottawa would be wise to adopt a posture rooted in caution and restraint, cooperating with Washington on the security implications of China’s rise where necessary while keeping the door open to engagement with Beijing where possible."

100 days of war in Ukraine: How the world has changed

Commenting for La Presse, Advisor Jocelyn Coulon suggested (in French) that "countries of the South have acquired significant economic and political autonomy over the last twenty years: they now have the opportunity to do without the West in certain areas and turn to other providers such as China."

From Our Experts

On China's 'unsafe' aerial interceptions of Canadian jet patrols:

The incidents are fairly typical behaviour from the PLA. The famous collision between a US Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a J-8 PLA fighter in 2001 along with PLA interceptions of US surveillance planes in the South China Sea are examples of ways Beijing has used to protest and prevent the US military and its allies from conducting surveillance operations within the Economic Exclusive Zone. In other words, close encounters between Chinese and US/allies planes tend to occur during military operations that Beijing most strongly opposes, with surveillance activities being one of them. 

In confronting military planes from Canada and Australia, Beijing is also sending a clear message to two of Washington’s closest allies, who each face its own difficult challenges in the bilateral relations with China. There is of course the domestic dimension, which is about safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and national dignity while ensuring not to look weak in the eyes of the Chinese public.

— Zhouchen Mao, Associate Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy

On the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Canada's options:

Given that the incipient IPEF joins a crowded group of trade agreements that are already in force—CPTPP, RCEP, DEPA—the economic benefits are marginal at best. The true value of IPEF is a signal to America’s partners in the Indo-Pacific that Washington, not Beijing, will write the rules that govern the regional economic order. IPEF reflects the larger geoeconomic struggle that America and China are locked into. 

Indeed, the accession provision that partners "share our goals, interests, and ambitions" in IPEF's joint statement reveals this is an effort to box China out of regional economic integration. China will look at this, correctly, as another containment policy. Whether the IPEF is in Canada’s long-term national interest is not immediately clear and requires careful thought.

— Stephen Smith, Associate Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy

Top Stories

Anand criticizes China at Shangri-La, trumpets 'responsible engagement'

Attending the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Canada's Defence Minister condemned aerial encounters with the Chinese airforce over North Korean sanctions enforcement and laid down Ottawa's approach to the Indo-Pacific.

'Irresponsible' — Accompanied by Canada's Chief of Defence Staff Wayne Eyre, Anand took issue with recent jet incidents and singled out Beijing:

• "Canada conducts its operations lawfully and we expect our military to be able to operate unimpeded on the high seas and in international airspace."
• "Canada is concerned with China’s increasingly assertive behaviour, particularly in the South and East China seas... China’s actions have heightened tensions and undermined the rules-based international order."

Indo-Pacific promises — Anand reiterated Ottawa's forthcoming regional strategy and pitched Canada's inclusion in ASEAN defence fora:

• She indicated Ottawa's wish to be added to the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting–Plus and urged the bloc to "grant Canada observer status to expert working groups."
• Anand added that Canada offers "a new and fresh approach to addressing regional security challenges" as it seeks to "build a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific where states engage responsibly, behave transparently and demonstrate respect for international rules."

Beijing responds — Major General Guo Ruobing of China's delegation to the forum critiqued Anand's remarks in a subsequent question period:

• Recalling more positive historical ties, Guo prefaced his statement by saying "Canada has a very high position, respect and reputation in China and we really miss that."
• Canada's airforce, however, had "come to China to the nearby airfield and our territorial water." He asked whether Canada's patrols were intended to "show off" and if they were a form of "disruption and insecurity to Asia."
• Separately, China's embassy in Canada stated that the UNSC had "never mandated any country to deploy forces... in jurisdictional air and sea areas of other countries" in the name of sanctions enforcement.

US-China crosstalk — Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Washington's representative to the conference, expressed support for Canada:

• "PLA fighters have conducted a series of dangerous intercepts of allied aircraft operating lawfully in the East China and the South China Seas. That should worry us all."
• In his own address, Chinese Minister of National Defence General Wei Fenghe asserted that "one is not in a position to champion any international law, rule or order if it only follows rules that fit its interests."

Joly taps Dominic Barton as part of Indo-Pacific advisor group

Foreign Minister Joly announced the creation of an external and cross-partisan advisory committee to support her department's work on Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy. The grouping includes Canada's most recent ambassador to China.

Who's who — Global Affairs Canada said the committee's 17 members would ensure "diverse perspectives" will inform its strategy with figures including:

• Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew from under Paul Martin as well as ex-Conservative leader Rona Ambrose, a previous advisor on the renegotiation of NAFTA. 
• Academic Pascale Massot, a former advisor on China to Joly's predecessors François-Philippe Champagne and Stéphane Dion, as well as Yves Tiberghien, Director of UBC's Centre for Japanese Research.

Boots on the ground — The news has come as Joly has announced a review and potential rehaul of the foreign service:

• Addressing the department, Joly said that "power is more diffuse. We are no longer living in a unipolar world. Old alliances are being tested, and new alliances are coming to form."
• Federal sources reported to the Globe & Mail that Joly is proposing that 1,000 more diplomats be posted to the Indo-Pacific and that she is "determined to repair relations with Beijing."

Still waiting — With the timeline of the strategy's release still uncertain, foreign diplomats and domestic stakeholders have aired public views:

• Japanese Ambassador Kanji Yamanouchi expressed hope that it "comes sooner rather than later" and potentially before this year's November APEC summit in Thailand.
• In a briefing report filed for the parliamentary trade committee, the Canada-ASEAN Business Council advised that Canada must dispatch greater numbers of senior diplomatic appointments to the region.

Tories double down as O'Toole faults China for election loss

Former opposition leader Erin O'Toole was supported by party colleagues in repeating claims that Conservative defeats in last year's elections were the result of Chinese interference.

Multiple seats — In a recent interview, the ex-Tory leader relitigated the allegations and specified numbers:

• "We almost won the election, we lost probably about eight or nine seats to foreign interference from China... that would have probably given me a little more sturdy of a leg to stand on if I held it to a very small minority."
• The figures build on previous party claims that up to 13 ridings were targeted by foreign interference including Chinese-Canadian constituencies in Richmond, British Columbia and Markham, Ontario.

Colleagues rally — MPs and party staffers came out in support of O'Toole while others have pointed to alternative reasons:

• Foreign affairs critic Michael Chong contended "the communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese-language social media platforms."
• Mitch Heimpel, O'Toole's former director of parliamentary affairs, referred to consultations with Canadian intelligence agencies but also acknowledged issues with the party's "ethnocultural outreach."
• Tory leadership candidate Patrick Brown has argued that "the impression in the community was that the Conservative party was against the Chinese-Canadian community" and that "there needs to be a clear distinction.”

The verdict — Assessments from CSIS and recent studies of disinformation in the last federal election have tested Conservative claims:

• Canada's intelligence agency told Politico that its threshold to announce that "an incident or a series of events" had "[threatened] Canada’s ability to have a free and fair election" had not been met.
• A McGill University report on the polls concluded "no clear evidence that there was a concerted effort by the Chinese state to interfere in the election" and that it was "minimally impacted by mis- and disinformation."

What They're Saying

The government has come in and introduced all these policies now about if you want federal funding, we’re going to restrict which partners you can use. They’ve put in these policies, and there are already concerns being raised about prejudice against Asian-American or Asian-Canadian scholars, that they are being left out of applications because there’s too much fear that they’re going to be rejected by the government because they’re Chinese. That’s a real problem.

— Stephanie Carvin, Associate Professor, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs

ASEAN countries are worried about the impact on ASEAN's central position and are very guarded about [IPEF]. ASEAN leaders made it clear at the US-ASEAN Special Summit in mid-May that inclusive cooperation is a priority for regional cooperation... the politicization, weaponization and ideologization of economic issues are contrary to the code for successful Asia-Pacific cooperation and are doomed to failure.

— Xu Liping, Research Fellow, Institute of Asia-Pacific & Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The democracies cannot permit the foremost authoritarian state to dominate the Indo-Pacific, shape its strategic culture and set the rules. The democracies need structures and new frameworks for collective pushback to respond when China behaves badly and acts in violation of international law... We must stay engaged with the PRC for reasons of geopolitics, trade and our people-to-people ties... but we need to do so with eyes wide open because China is actively challenging our rules-based order.

— Colin Robertson, Senior Advisor, Canadian Global Affairs Institute

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NEWSLETTER BY JOHNSEN ROMERO

IMAGE CREDIT: GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA | IISS | WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM | ERIN O'TOOLE