Canada-China Brief: Chinese Party Congress, Canadian MPs in Taiwan & more

This week's edition covers the commencement of China's 20th Party Congress, Canadian parliamentarians' trip to Taiwan, and more.  

First, here's the latest from IPD:

IPD's Roundup

Keynote announcement: East Asia Strategy Forum 2022

With just 2 weeks remaining, IPD will host its second East Asia Strategy Forum (EASF) in collaboration with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada gathering top defence and foreign policy thinkers in Ottawa from November 1-2. Learn more and reserve your spot for EASF with keynote speakers including Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Evan A. Feigenbaum

Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, South Asia

EASF Day 2: Keynote Speaker

Top Stories

China's 20th Party Congress opens as Joly pays attention

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened on October 16th and is slated to review China's performance in the past five years and reveal the newest members of the 25-member Politburo and the seven-member Standing Committee.

Policy continuity — Xi Jinping delivered a report listing achievements over the past five years and laying out the agenda for China's next five years including:

1. Long-term goal unchanged: "The central task... [is] a concerted effort to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects, and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization." 
2. Zero-Covid remains: “In responding to the sudden attack of Covid-19, we put the people and their lives above all else and tenaciously pursued a dynamic Zero Covid policy. We have protected the people's health and safety to the greatest extent possible." 
3. Growth and technology key: “High-quality development is the top priority... development is the party’s top priority in governing... we must regard science and technology as our primary productive force, talent as our primary resource, and innovation as our primary driver of growth."
4. Foreign policy stands fast: "[China] has always decided its position and policy on issues based on their own merits... China stands firmly against all forms of hegemonism and power politics, the Cold War mentality, interference in other countries' internal affairs, and double standards."
5. Defence modernization continues: “We will intensify military training under combat conditions across the board to see that our armed forces can fight. We will innovate new military strategic guidance and develop strategies and tactics for people’s war, establish a strong system of strategic deterrence."

What commentators think — Experts have offered mixed reactions to Xi's remarks and stated plans: 

• Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, suggested an attempt to shift the basis of legitimacy to security, saying "his narrative is [that] China faces many dangers, the country is in a war-like state, figuratively, and he is the saviour."
• Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, argued that the directions laid out in Xi’s opening speech were a continuation of previous policies and that his emphasis on challenges and struggles is an effort to justify "the need for a strong party and its great leader.”
• Dexter Tiff Roberts, a Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center, highlighted that "as Xi stated in his speech, while China’s global power has increased, it is also facing an unstable international environment and must be prepared for 'strong winds and high waves and even dangerous storms.'"

Canada's strategy incoming? — Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced that she will release Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy before the end of the year and that it would be shaped in part by the revelations of the 20th Party Congress.

• At EASF 2022, hear more insights on Taiwan and Beijing's approach to cross-Strait relations under the backdrop of the National Congress from keynote speakers including:

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University; Strategic Planner, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

EASF Day 2: Keynote Speaker

Canadian parliamentarians complete trip to Taiwan

Led by Liberal MP Judy Sgro, a Canadian parliamentarian delegation completed a visit to Taiwan. The group of MPs met with President Tsai Ing-wen, Premier Su Tseng-chang, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu. 

A polite exchange — In a statement released by the Taiwanese government, President Tsai expressed her gratitude to Canada's support for Taiwan:

• "Taiwan and Canada are key global trading partners. Canada's bilateral trade with Taiwan is growing faster than its trade with any other Asian nation. Last year, our two-way trade increased more than at any time since 1995." 
• "[Ottawa] has also spoken up for Taiwan in the global arena and backed Taiwan's international participation... We look forward to seeing Taiwan and Canada continue to deepen exchanges across the board and work together to safeguard peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region." 
• In response, Sgro stated that "Taiwan is an important stakeholder for Canada. It is a two-way street. Not a one-way street. And a valuable partner for the world."
• "I am confident as we move forward, we will have more opportunities as we work on the Indo-Pacific strategy that we want to see happen. This is a very important part of the world, but it's also critical to have peace and stability. And Taiwan demonstrates all of that."

Beijing protests — The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa was quick to express its disapproval of the visit via a statement released to the Globe and Mail:

• "Despite China’s stern position... Canadian parliament members persist in visiting the Taiwan region of China. This blatantly violates the one-China principle, grossly interferes in China’s internal affairs and sends a seriously wrong signal to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.”
• “China has consistently and firmly opposed any form of official exchanges... Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory and this recognition serves as the political foundation on which China develops relations with other countries, including Canada."

Xi Jinping on Taiwan — Xi Jinping's remarks at the Party Congress paid special attention to re-unification and China's position towards Taiwan:

• "[The Taiwan question] must be resolved by the Chinese. We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary." 
• "We have always shown respect and care for our Taiwan compatriots and worked to deliver benefits to them. We will continue to promote economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation across the Straits."

What commentators think — Experts and observers have offered their analysis on Xi's commentary on Taiwan:

• Lev Nachman, an assistant professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, stated that Xi's repetition of prior rhetoric and “choosing not to escalate on this issue is a signal that he is probably far more focused on trying to overcome domestic challenges." 
• Zhang Wensheng, a deputy dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, said the remarks were "a fresh warning not only to separatists in the island but also to external interference" and were "extremely necessary given a changing global environment."
• Kit Conklin, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted “an increasingly bold and aggressive Chinese foreign policy” as “Xi’s refusal to ‘renounce the use of force’ leaves little room for strategic ambiguity when it comes to China’s willingness to go to war with the United States over Taiwan."

What They're Saying

The Asia Pacific region is wary of China’s re-emergence as the dominant regional power. Most AP states want the U.S. regional presence to balance China. Nonetheless, with the possible exception of Japan, no Asia Pacific state will join an American attempt to “contain” China. The region has lived with China for millennia. It understands that the U.S. will eventually leave, but China will stay. If the Asia Pacific is forced to choose between the U.S. or China it will—reluctantly—choose China. If Canada is on the other side of this line, it risks damaging itself in the world’s most important region.

— Shaun Narine, Professor, St. Thomas University

This [Xi's third term] really ensures a great continuity for China because you can expect the policies of the current government will continue: There’s no speculation, no disruption. So basically, I think this trend at the [current] congress will ensure another five to ten years of China’s continued path towards the second centennial, which is to make China into a modernized society by 2049.

— Wang Huiyao, President, Center for China & Globalization

The continuation of Xi’s rule means that on the big questions of China’s future, Beijing is unlikely to shift its policies dramatically: after a decade in power, Xi’s impulses, assumptions, and judgment are already clear. The bilateral relationship with the United States, Beijing’s view of state-market relations, its use of coercion toward Taiwan, its strategic alignment with Moscow, its approach to economic statecraft—none of this will fundamentally change at or after the congress. 

— Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic & International Studies

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NEWSLETTER BY PETER HUANG