Carbon emissions keep rising, but climate action shows promise

Global carbon dioxide emissions from using fossil fuels have reached a record high of 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.

The Global Carbon Project provides a stark reminder that time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – as rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions are needed to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels. 

The researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels – but there is evidence of climate action.

Up 0.8% from 2023, carbon dioxide emissions from using oil, coal, and natural gas for energy continue to rise. Meanwhile, over the last 10 years carbon dioxide emissions from land use change – such as deforestation – have declined on average.  

However, this year both fossil fuel and land-use change carbon dioxide emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024. 

Despite the rise in emissions this year, the latest data also shows evidence of widespread climate action. Renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing emissions over the past decade from deforestation have been confirmed for the first time.

Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others. Progress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero. Until we reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts on countries and communities worldwide.

The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world – including the National Centre for Atmospheric Science.

Dr Patrick McGuire, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading, participated in the Global Carbon Budget for a second consecutive year and for a fourth time in total. He said:

“The new Global Carbon Budget reveals a disturbing reality – global fossil carbon dioxide emissions continue to climb, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024. Despite clear evidence of accelerating climate impacts, we’re still moving in the wrong direction. The need for rapid decarbonisation has never been more urgent."

“We have only about six years until we consistently exceed 1.5°C of warming at current emission rates. While some regions show promising decreases in emissions, the overall global trend remains deeply concerning. We need immediate, coordinated action across all sectors to drastically cut emissions and expand carbon removal efforts.”

Key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

• Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024. 
• China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.
• US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.
• India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.
• European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.
• Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.
• International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total, and counted separately from national/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.
• Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade, but are set to rise in 2024. 
• Permanent carbon dioxide removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
• Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels. 
• The effects of the temporary El Niño climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as the land carbon dioxide “sink”) in 2023, which is projected to recover as El Niño ended by the second quarter of 2024.
• Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.
• The land and ocean carbon dioxide sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total carbon dioxide emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change. 

The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 120 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner. The 2024 edition (the 19th annual report) was published in the journal Earth System Science Data today on Wednesday 13 November.

Image credit: Marc A. Hermann / MTA.