CEIC Insights | Top Stories of 2024, Part I: Trump, China, Trade and the US Debt Ceiling
This special, year-end version of our newsletter looks back at the stories that CEIC's users read and downloaded the most.
Data stories of the week:
How US-China Trade Changed Under Trump and Biden (Nov. 8)
Our Nov. 8 chart looking back at the evolution of US-China trade through and after the first Trump term was one of CEIC’s 10 most popular visualizations of 2024.
The first Trump term reshaped the bilateral trade landscape between China and the United States. The US trade deficit with China stopped shrinking during the pandemic -- but this proved to be a temporary phenomenon.
We visualized US exports and imports since 2017 with indices measuring total bilateral trade: one for China and one for the rest of the world. The trend lines diverged from mid-2018. We used June of that year, when Trump announced a 25% tariff on some Chinese goods, as the neutral "100" value.
Two more rounds of tariffs were implemented in August and September of 2018; an additional tariff was increased at the start of 2019. As the US trade deficit with China narrowed, trade of goods with other countries remained largely stable.
By early 2022, supply chains were experiencing significant disruption. The Biden administration kept many Trump tariffs and added levies on goods such as electric vehicles. Our bilateral trade index for China shrank from 109 in mid-2022 to about 88 today.
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China's exports: how high tech gained share (Oct. 17)
Our Oct. 17 chart examining how high tech became increasingly important to Chinese exports was one of CEIC’s 10 most popular visualizations of 2024.
China continually adjusts its export strategy to move up the value chain; the proportion of high-technology products in the nation's trade mix steadily increased from 2020 to 2023.
Earlier in China's industrialization, the nation identified three key sectors for export growth: household appliances, furniture and clothing. Today, these are known as the "Old Three." Now, the focus is on the "New Three": electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
The export share of "New Three" products is now at about 4% of total exports, up from 1.5% at the end of 2020. "Old Three" products are still more important in absolute terms, but their relative share slipped -- about 9%, down from more than 10% at the end of 2020.
Electric vehicles notably outperformed amid a weaker export market in 2024.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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A US debt-ceiling debate could feature early in Trump’s next term (Nov. 22)
Our Nov. 22 chart examining the potential for a debt-ceiling crisis in 2025 was one of CEIC’s 10 most popular visualizations of 2024.
President-elect Donald Trump is already demanding that Congress raise the federal debt ceiling, criticizing a deal struck by officials from both parties.
We had explored the possibility of a 2025 debt-ceiling crisis just last month. A quirk of US government finances, the ceiling is a hard limit on borrowing by the US Treasury.
Without a deal to raise the ceiling, the government could shut down, resulting in a missed debt payment. In practice, the US resorts to accounting maneuvers to avoid default – as well as repeated temporary suspensions of the debt ceiling. But these rounds of political brinkmanship (like the most recent, in May 2023) have factored into downgrades of the US credit rating.
We charted the steady rise of US debt since 2016 and overlaid periods when the debt limit was suspended and then raised. US debt has been rising more quickly since the end of the pandemic era's ultra-low interest rates, and January marks the expiration of the debt-ceiling suspension that came with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which ended the 2023 crisis.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Fund flows to Malaysia are supporting the ringgit (Sept. 19)
Inflows to a nation's bond and stock markets – a result of international asset-allocation decisions – can significantly influence exchange rates.
We explored this trend in Malaysia and the broader ASEAN-6 bloc by tapping our EPFR fund-flows solution (which, like CEIC, is now an ISI Markets company.)
In September, we had recently seen inflows to bond and equity funds turn positive. July and August saw the ringgit jump against the dollar. This was linked to a combination of optimism about the tech-driven Malaysian economy and the US Federal Reserve Board pivot to lower rates.
Later in 2024, this trend reversed itself. Fund flows began tapering, foreshadowing MYR’s decline from its peak against US. And after Donald Trump was re-elected, the largest equity outflows in more than a year began; the ringgit has steadily weakened.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Thailand's FDI success and its relationship to Chinese inflows (Nov. 21)
Our Nov. 21 chart examining foreign investment in Thailand was one of CEIC’s 10 most popular visualizations of 2024.
Thailand benefited from a steady stream of foreign direct investment in recent years – with China emerging as a key source of capital.
Ahead of Donald Trump's return as US president, we can view this trend as a longer-term response to global trade tensions. Companies – including Chinese ones – began "de-risking" by shifting their supply chains.
Our pie charts compared the sources of FDI into Thailand, five years apart. Japan has long been notable for its investment in the electronics sector, but from 2019 to 2024, Greater China increased its share significantly (by 10 percentage points to 26% of total FDI). The US also grew its share, while Japan’s share fell.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Other News from ISI Markets
2025 ASEAN Economic Outlook
The dynamic ASEAN nations continue to outpace global growth, driven by resilient export sectors, robust FDI inflows into manufacturing, vibrant financial markets and digitally driven innovation.
Join us on Jan. 13 at our 2025 ASEAN Economic Outlook as we explore the region’s trade patterns, cross-border investment and supply chains. Leveraging CEIC’s economic nowcasts and EPFR’s fund-flow insights, we will be sharing expert perspectives on navigating ASEAN's evolving economic landscape.
2025 ASEAN Economic Outlook
During our recent webinar, “From Macro-to-Micro: 2025 Global Markets Outlook Post-US Election”, ISI Markets experts Radina Koleva, Senior Economist at CEIC, and Cameron Brandt, Director of Research at EPFR analyzed the key macro and microeconomic trends shaping 2025, and the ripple effects on developed and emerging markets following a year that saw half of the world’s population heading to the polls.
Alongside the on-demand webinar, we have developed a comprehensive chart pack with 30+ visualizations from CEIC and EPFR, to showcase how the global economy is recalibrating post-US elections and shed some light on the year ahead.
CEE M&A OUTLOOK
We are pleased to invite you to the EMIS Next webinar, during which we will meet with experts to discuss the M&A landscape in the CEE region. This session will provide expert insights into key Eastern Europe countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, and the Baltics.
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