Chapter 13: The Climate War

Chapter 13: The Climate War

This is Chapter 13 from free climate book A Plan to Save the Planet.

The fossil fuel industry and their suppliers support many people. However, they are not a majority and the majority of U.S. citizens want to decarbonize according to survey. Ultimately, we are looking at a political fight between “Carbon” and “Climate”. They are both in an existential crisis. They are both fighting for their lives.

The primary participants on the climate battlefield are as follows.

  • Climate: People concerned about climate change
  • Carbon: Fossil fuel industry and their suppliers
  • Labor: Labor unions and their workers.
  • Green Republicans: Republicans who want to decarbonize

U.S. Climate Politics

National media often portray the climate war as a fight between those who want to decarbonize and those who do not. However, this is an oversimplification. The truth is more nuanced and is summarized as follows.

  • Carbon interests spend significantly more money on lobbying and makes more political donations than Climate. The Sierra Club and their friends are small relative to an industry.
  • An industry's political activity is backed by a profit model. In other words, they spend one dollar on lobbying and political donations, and get back more than one dollar in benefit. Climate's model is different. Their benefit is to someone else, far into the future. And they are not supported by an industry's revenue stream.
  • Climate is not politically strong enough to fight Carbon by themselves. Therefore, they typically elicit help from Labor, who requires protectionism in return for their support. This leads to provisions that favor U.S. manufacturers over lower cost imports. Ironically, these increase CO2 emissions when they increase decarbonization costs.
  • According to a survey, 60% of Republican voters do not want to decarbonize. Therefore, Green Republican lawmakers cannot be too vocal about their views. And they are a small group relative to the Democrats. For these reasons, they are rarely recognized. 
  • Republicans are not opposed to green electricity. For example, red states North Carolina (47%) and Arizona (45%) each produce more green electricity as a percentage of total than blue states Florida (16%), Nevada (23%), and Massachusetts (29%). The values in parenthesis refer to the percentage of electricity in each state that is generated without emitting CO2.
  • Politically liberal coalitions have formed most climate legislation. Subsequently, it contains many fiscally liberal provisions, and these are not accepted by fiscally conservative Republicans. For example, Green Republicans often do not support decarbonization measures that cost more than $50/mtCO2.
  • Lawmakers from regions that produce coal or natural gas are not likely to support the Green Line due to the social and economic pain it would bring to many of their employers.
  • Approximately two-thirds of the U.S. states do not produce natural gas and do not produce coal. Instead, they import fuel, and they benefit from low fuel prices. A coalition of Democrats and Green Republicans from these states could potentially decarbonize electricity at less than $50/mtCO2.
  • Republicans and Democrats often do not get along. However, simple legislation is sometimes feasible when based on a common goal, and both sides are given veto power over each provision.

Carbon Blocks Decarbonization with Money

The five largest petroleum companies together spend $200M each year on lobbying to block decarbonization. Green organizations, like the Sierra Club, do not have this kind of money. And non-green Republicans who vote against climate remedies, for a variety of reasons, do not spend money to block Climate.

What does $200M buy? Carbon wants Climate to believe they are decarbonizing when they are not, to get them to fight less. To do this, some climate remedies are enacted; however, they are watered down relative to what is needed. In the end, decarbonization is mild.

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Figure 13.1: A portion of an oil refinery's vast revenue is often used to protect their financial interests.

Climate is a Small Monkey

Industries are politically powerful due to their vast wealth and large numbers of employees. Employees and their friends vote, while employees and their employers make political donations. To connect the dots, lobbyists suggest to lawmakers that donations and votes are contingent on support for specific measures.

Each industry is a political gorilla, while other groups metaphorically are small monkeys. The fossil fuel industry (“Carbon”), labor unions (“Labor”), automobile manufacturers (“Auto”), and groups of factories (“Manufacturing”) are examples of political gorillas. And a group of non-profits that encourage decarbonization (“Climate”) is the small monkey.

In theory, a monkey can jump on a gorilla's back and ride forward. However, in practice, the gorilla typically receives most of the benefit, while the monkey gets the crumbs.

The Alliance between Climate and Labor

To get IRA to pass, Climate put together an alliance with Labor. For this reason, much of the IRA helps Labor and ignores CO2. For example, one provision cancels the $7.5K subsidy on electric vehicles made outside North America. Ironically, this increases CO2 emissions since it blocks low cost EVs from entering the U.S.

Cheap Green Car

One can buy a small EV in China with a 250-mile range for $17K, an example of which is pictured below. If these were allowed into the U.S. with a $7K subsidy, final price would be $10K. And this would cause more families with two cars to consider having one gas muscle car and one light electric. Normally, Americans favor more car for more money. However, an $10K price would cause some to reconsider.

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Figure 13.2: EV Dolphin (Atto 2) manufactured by China's BYD in 2021.

Protectionism

Many nations protect their domestic manufacturers from foreign-made goods. They do this with import tariffs, government subsidies for domestically manufactured goods, and regulations that block imports. These practices are commonly referred to as “protectionism”. They reduce trade deficits, help domestic manufacturers, and help domestic Labor. However, they also increase prices, increase inflation, increase interest rates, increase the risk of recession, hurt domestic consumers, and do not reduce CO2.

The U.S. implemented little protectionism over the last several decades, and this made it easier for Americans to shop. However, the Trump administration increased protectionism with more import tariffs, and the Biden administration increased it with legislation like the IRA. 

Protectionism is a form of trade warfare where a nation demands more access to foreign markets, in return for increased access to their own markets. In other words, nations occasionally agree to protect less with respect to each other.

Arrangements are codified in what are called Free Trade Agreements (FTA). As of 2022, the U.S. had FTA arrangements with 20 countries. This included Canada, Mexico, Korea, and Australia. However, it did not include China, Japan, India, and European countries.

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Figure 13.3: Ships often carry hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of cargo, which effectively transfers wealth from one country to another.

The Chinese block many imports into China with regulations. And they often copy products designed by others. This drives the Americans crazy. In response, the IRA links electric vehicle subsidies to these practices. For example, EVs made with Chinese battery components will not receive U.S. government subsidies, unless the Chinese soften their business practices, which is unlikely.

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Figure 13.4: Relations between the U.S. and China are often tense.

The Easiest Way to Decarbonize Transportation

The easiest way to decarbonize U.S. transportation is to pick on a different industry to protect. However, this is not likely since Climate's political power is small relative to the combined strength of Carbon, Labor and Auto. If we use the monkey analogy, this would be like one small monkey overpowering several gorillas.

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Figure 13.5: Industrial robots assemble automobiles at low-cost.

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A Plan to Save the Planet (book)

For a free PDF of entire book, click here.

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Articles by Glenn Weinreb

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