Chapter 13: The Climate War
This is Chapter 13 from free climate book A Plan to Save the Planet.
The fossil fuel industry and their suppliers support many people. However, they are not a majority and the majority of U.S. citizens want to decarbonize according to survey. Ultimately, we are looking at a political fight between “Carbon” and “Climate”. They are both in an existential crisis. They are both fighting for their lives.
The primary participants on the climate battlefield are as follows.
U.S. Climate Politics
National media often portray the climate war as a fight between those who want to decarbonize and those who do not. However, this is an oversimplification. The truth is more nuanced and is summarized as follows.
Carbon Blocks Decarbonization with Money
The five largest petroleum companies together spend $200M each year on lobbying to block decarbonization. Green organizations, like the Sierra Club, do not have this kind of money. And non-green Republicans who vote against climate remedies, for a variety of reasons, do not spend money to block Climate.
What does $200M buy? Carbon wants Climate to believe they are decarbonizing when they are not, to get them to fight less. To do this, some climate remedies are enacted; however, they are watered down relative to what is needed. In the end, decarbonization is mild.
Climate is a Small Monkey
Industries are politically powerful due to their vast wealth and large numbers of employees. Employees and their friends vote, while employees and their employers make political donations. To connect the dots, lobbyists suggest to lawmakers that donations and votes are contingent on support for specific measures.
Each industry is a political gorilla, while other groups metaphorically are small monkeys. The fossil fuel industry (“Carbon”), labor unions (“Labor”), automobile manufacturers (“Auto”), and groups of factories (“Manufacturing”) are examples of political gorillas. And a group of non-profits that encourage decarbonization (“Climate”) is the small monkey.
In theory, a monkey can jump on a gorilla's back and ride forward. However, in practice, the gorilla typically receives most of the benefit, while the monkey gets the crumbs.
The Alliance between Climate and Labor
To get IRA to pass, Climate put together an alliance with Labor. For this reason, much of the IRA helps Labor and ignores CO2. For example, one provision cancels the $7.5K subsidy on electric vehicles made outside North America. Ironically, this increases CO2 emissions since it blocks low cost EVs from entering the U.S.
Cheap Green Car
One can buy a small EV in China with a 250-mile range for $17K, an example of which is pictured below. If these were allowed into the U.S. with a $7K subsidy, final price would be $10K. And this would cause more families with two cars to consider having one gas muscle car and one light electric. Normally, Americans favor more car for more money. However, an $10K price would cause some to reconsider.
Recommended by LinkedIn
Protectionism
Many nations protect their domestic manufacturers from foreign-made goods. They do this with import tariffs, government subsidies for domestically manufactured goods, and regulations that block imports. These practices are commonly referred to as “protectionism”. They reduce trade deficits
The U.S. implemented little protectionism over the last several decades, and this made it easier for Americans to shop. However, the Trump administration increased protectionism with more import tariffs, and the Biden administration increased it with legislation like the IRA.
Protectionism is a form of trade warfare where a nation demands more access to foreign markets, in return for increased access to their own markets. In other words, nations occasionally agree to protect less with respect to each other.
Arrangements are codified in what are called Free Trade Agreements (FTA). As of 2022, the U.S. had FTA arrangements with 20 countries. This included Canada, Mexico, Korea, and Australia. However, it did not include China, Japan, India, and European countries.
The Chinese block many imports into China with regulations. And they often copy products designed by others. This drives the Americans crazy. In response, the IRA links electric vehicle subsidies to these practices. For example, EVs made with Chinese battery components will not receive U.S. government subsidies, unless the Chinese soften their business practices, which is unlikely.
The Easiest Way to Decarbonize Transportation
The easiest way to decarbonize U.S. transportation is to pick on a different industry to protect. However, this is not likely since Climate's political power is small relative to the combined strength of Carbon, Labor and Auto. If we use the monkey analogy, this would be like one small monkey overpowering several gorillas.
Climate Solution Videos (YouTube Channel)
A Plan to Save the Planet (book)
For a free PDF of entire book, click here.
Climate Solution Articles
Related Material