China's "New Three" / "新三样": 
(Part II) Photovoltaic Systems

China's "New Three" / "新三样": (Part II) Photovoltaic Systems

In this article series, we began by understanding the meaning of China’s “New Three”, where does the term come from and the business and political emphasis surrounding these three industries. We kicked off in Part I by looking at the History of the Battery and the “Great Leap Forward” with Lithium-ion. And now it's time to look at one of the main drivers of the Green Tech movement and the best source of unlimited energy available to us: the Sun!

Energy supply shortage and environment deterioration are two serious issues which deserve our attention. Our daily life continuously consumes electrical energy. Historically, the main electricity supplies come from natural gas, nuclear and coal. These supply sources all pollute the environment by generating greenhouse gases and accelerate global warming which may lead to the endangerment and/or extinction of many habitats and ecosystems. This is driving us to explore clean energy, such as solar energy, wind energy and hydropower. The renewables are the fastest growing sector and comprise the biggest portion of new energy sources deployed on the grid.

By generating electricity from converting hydropower, wind energy and solar energy, the development of renewable energy originated in the 19th century and has developed at somewhat fast and slow paces ever since depending on the technologies and applications.

But as we step into the 21st century, away from fossil fuels, and with the next phase of Paris Agreement goals rapidly approaching, governments and organizations everywhere are looking to increase the adoption of renewable-energy sources. Some of the regions with the heaviest use of energy have extra incentives for pursuing alternatives to traditional energy. In Europe, the incentive stems from targets combined with an energy crisis. In the United States, it comes courtesy of the Inflation Reduction Act, a 2022 law that allocates USD 370 billion to clean-energy investments.

These developments are propelling renewable energy market - estimated at USD 970 billion in 2022 and is expected to hit over USD 2,18 trillion by 2032 with a registered CAGR of 8.50% from 2023 to 2032.

 In this report and due to the nature of my work and industry (DIY Retail), we will deep dive into the Residential Solar PV market - estimated at USD 41.41 billion in 2023 and is expected to hit over USD 66.25 billion by 2032 with a registered CAGR of 5.40% from 2024 to 2032 -, primarily focusing on battery energy storage systems (BESS). Battery storage is an essential enabler of renewable-energy generation, helping alternatives make a steady contribution to the world’s energy needs. The flexibility BESS provides will make it integral to applications such as peak shaving, self-consumption optimization, and backup power in the event of outages. Those applications are starting to become more profitable as battery prices fall.

All of this has created a significant opportunity. More than USD 5 billion was invested in BESS in 2022, according to an analysis from McKinsey—almost a threefold increase from the previous year. They expect the global BESS market to reach between USD 120 billion and USD 150 billion by 2030 (of which USD 23.3 billion for residential applications), more than double its global size today (and 3x increase for residential). But it’s still a fragmented market, with many providers wondering where and how to compete.

Throughout this report I hope to look into the best opportunities in the rapidly accelerating BESS market and to how to best prepare and how to formulate an adequate strategy for the residential consumer.

Introduction to Residential Renewable Energy Solutions (RRES)

The RRES is an energy optimization solution for household users that integrates solar energy, power grid and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) altogether. Without the RRES, we pay higher electricity bills at grid peak hours and lose power supply at grid outage times. The invention of RRES cuts our electricity bills by selling back solar energy and guarantees a backup power supply at blackout times. The residential ESS functions to store intermittent electrical energy from Photovoltaic (PV) modules and provide power supply for backup loadings. The current RRES market is dominated by players from APAC region, North America and Europe, such as LG Electronics, Tesla, Huawei, Enphase, and Siemens.

The RRES solution diagram (a) DC coupled solution and (b) AC coupled solution.

In residential applications, currently solar energy is the sole renewables for being deployed. In 2021, deployment of PV modules was expanding rapidly in various countries, amounting to 54.9 GWp in China, 25.9 GWp in EU, 730 MWp in UK, 23.6 GWp in US, 12 GWp in India. Researchers worldwide are dedicated to pushing the boundaries of efficiency in solar cells and PV modules by studying materials and processes. In addition, PV modules’ application performance is inevitably affected by weather conditions like solar irradiance and shading. As a result, electricity is generated in an intermittent way which creates bottlenecks for consumers looking to not only consume and sell excess, but also store it for later use.

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are the effective solution for storing electricity generated by PV modules. The best way to get a sense of the opportunities associated with BESS is to segment the market by the applications and sizes of users. There are three segments in BESS: front-of-the-meter (FTM) utility-scale installations, which are typically larger than ten megawatt-hours (MWh); behind-the-meter (BTM) commercial and industrial installations, which typically range from 30 kilowatt-hours (kWh) to ten MWh; and BTM residential installations, which are usually less than 30 kWh.

Utility-scale BESS (FTM), which already accounts for the bulk of new annual capacity, is expected to grow around 29 percent per year for the rest of this decade—the fastest of the three segments, making battery energy storage system capacity is likely to quintuple between now and 2030.

Residential Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Behind-the-Meter (BTM) BESS

A residential energy storage system (ESS) is a collection of high-tech devices that store and supply excess electrical, mechanical, chemical, and thermal energy for later use. It can be combined with solar energy generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems, and the battery facilitates the further accumulation of daytime energy. A battery pack is perhaps the most prevalent form of ESS, called BESS, and the most common battery system is a lithium polymer battery.

Residential installations—headed for about 20 GWh in 2030—represent the smallest BESS segment. The global residential ESS market size was valued at USD 7.30 billion in 2021. It is estimated to reach USD 23.3 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 17.57% during the forecast period (2023–2031). Its adoption is further enhanced by the continuously declining prices of solar PV panels.

But residential is an attractive segment given the opportunity for innovation and differentiation in areas ranging from traditional home storage to the creation of micro grids in remote communities. From a sales perspective, BESS can be bundled with PV panels, smart homes or home EV charging. Tailored products will help residential customers achieve goals such as self-sufficiency, optimized self-consumption, and lower peak power consumption. A recent consumer survey on alternative energy purchases suggests that interest in a BESS product will come down to a few factors (below):

Understanding ESS / BESS Technology and Value Chain

From a technology perspective, the main battery metrics that customers care about are cycle life and affordability. Lithium-ion batteries are currently dominant because they meet customers’ needs. Nickel manganese cobalt cathode used to be the primary battery chemistry, but lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has overtaken it as a cheaper option (customers appear willing to accept the fact that LFP isn’t as strong as a nickel battery in certain areas, such as energy density). However, lithium is scarce, which has opened the door to a number of other interesting and promising battery technologies, especially cell-based options such as sodium-ion (Na-ion), sodium-sulfur (Na-S), metal-air, and flow batteries.

Sodium-ion is one technology to watch. To be sure, sodium-ion batteries are still behind lithium-ion batteries in some important respects. Sodium-ion batteries have lower cycle life (2,000–4,000 versus 4,000–8,000 for lithium) and lower energy density (120–160 watt-hours per kilogram versus 170–190 watt-hours per kilogram for LFP). However, sodium-ion has the potential to be less costly—up to 20 percent cheaper than LFP—and the technology continues to improve, especially as manufacturing reaches scale. Another advantage is safety: sodium batteries are less prone to thermal runaway. There’s also a sustainability case for sodium-ion batteries, because the environmental impact of mining lithium is high.

From a Value Chain perspective, it’s important to have a sense of the potential revenues and margins associated with the different products and services in the industry:

  • The BESS value chain starts with manufacturers of storage components, including battery cells and packs, and of the inverters, housing, and other essential components in the balance of system.
  • Then there are the system integration activities, including the overall design and development of energy management systems (EMS) and other software to make BESS more flexible and useful.
  • Finally, we have the sales entities, project development organizations, other customer acquisition activities, and commissioning.

Understanding ESS / BESS Integrations with other systems – PV+ESS+EV+HP

Home storage is trendy. That´s because they make sustainably generated energy usable when it is needed. This protects resources and the wallet: If you have a photovoltaic (PV) system and store energy (ESS) during the hours of sunshine, you can still use it in the evening or morning hours. For example, for a heat pump (HP). It is the perfect addition to the sustainable duo of PV and ESS systems. The HP system does not use the conventional raw materials oil and gas, which are becoming more expensive and scarce. Instead, it gets around 75% of its energy from the immediate environment. Only the remaining 25% is electricity. If this is fed via a PV system, homeowners can generate their heat even more efficiently and in a more environmentally friendly way. Yet this only works when combined with the home storage. Because the solar energy, which benefits the heat pump via the photovoltaic system, is generated only during the day and not in the early morning or evening. These are exactly the times of the day when not only the electrical appliances but also heating system is in use, at least in the colder months. Regenerative energy is not available in the morning and evening because unused solar energy flows back into the grid. It’s different with a home storage system (ESS): It stores excess energy and makes it available at a later time.

How a Heat Pump (HP) System Works

The principle of the heat pump (HP) is clever: it extracts thermal energy from its surroundings outside the building – from the air, the earth or the groundwater, depending on the model. However, the temperature of the energy generated is not yet high enough to heat a house or produce hot water. That is why the heat pump uses a cyclic process: the heat source system contains water with antifreeze added. This liquid takes the heat from its natural environment and transports it to the main body of the heat pump. A refrigerant with a low boiling point circulates there. It absorbs the heat and evaporates. A compressor compresses the refrigerant, pressure and temperature increase. The refrigerant is now in gaseous form and reaches the condenser where it is condensed and gives off its heat to the heating circuit which heats the building. The refrigerant is expanded again, flows back to the evaporator and the cycle begins again.

What is special about the heat pump system is its high level of efficiency, which is higher than that of conventional heating, in terms of how much energy is generated per energy invested. In addition, the heat pump does not release any CO2 when absorbing heat. The heat obtained corresponds to around 75% of the energy that the heat pump needs to heat a building. Only the missing 25% comes from electricity. This is where the PV system comes into play. Because the solar energy it generates can contribute to the last quarter of the energy required. The combination of PV and HP systems is a very energy-efficient solution that is becoming more and more attractive due to the energy and environmental situation. Especially since there are government funding opportunities.

Research Case Study for the integration of PV-ESS-HP in Germany

Researchers led by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) in Germany have studied a residential heat pump (HP) installation coupled with PV, battery storage, and a smart grid-ready system.

Their analysis is based on a year of data from a single-family home in Freiburg, Germany. It uses a ground-source heat pump with a nominal capacity of 13.9 kW. The PV unit has a module area of 60 square meters and a nominal power rating of 12.3 kW. The battery has a capacity of 11.7 kWh. The system had to account for heating a living space of 256 square meters, as well as a domestic hot water (DHW) tank.

The heat pump of the setup has an SG-Ready label, which means it can communicate with the grid and adjust its own operations. In the context of this research, however, it was used to maximize the PV self-consumption by adjusting the heat pump operation based on available PV electricity.

The researchers said the combined system achieved a self-consumption rate of 43% per year. During the winter, with reduced PV generation, the rate reached 94% to 100%. In the high-PV summer months, self-consumption dropped below 50%, reaching its lowest point in July at 25%.

The scientists also looked into solar fraction (SF), which refers to the ratio of PV electricity supplied directly to the heat pump load, or through battery discharge, to the total heat pump electricity consumption.

“During the evaluation period, the heat pump consumed a total of 5,064 kWh of which a major 63.8% was contributed by grid supply,” they said. “The PV array supplied 899 kWh (17.8%), and the battery unit supplied 934 kWh (18.4%), resulting in an annual solar fraction of 0.36.”

The researchers calculated the seasonal performance factor (SPF) for the combined system, yielding a rate of 6.7, a 59.5% improvement compared to a system solely reliant on the grid to feed the heat pump. Additionally, the smart grid-ready system increased supply temperatures for domestic hot water by 4.1 K and space heating by 1.8 K. However, only 5% of thermal energy in space heating mode and 28% in domestic hot water mode were provided at elevated temperatures.

Europe’s Residential Energy Storage Market

Europe Dominates the Global Market. It is the most significant global residential energy storage systems market shareholder and is expected to expand substantially. The demand for ESS in the European region is witnessing high expansion due to the rapid adoption of rooftop solar power.

Since 2015, the residential energy storage systems market in Germany has grown rapidly, aided by an incentive program that offers a 30% investment subsidy for battery systems. As of January 2022, the United Kingdom had 13.79 gigawatts (GW) of installed solar capacity, of which 26% (3.25 GW) came from solar PV installations below 10 kW, primarily residential rooftop solar photovoltaic consumers. Additionally, Italy has introduced a new super bonus incentive scheme that allows for a tax credit of 110% of the expense from July 2020 to July 2023, encouraging energy efficiency interventions. In order to be eligible for the super bonus, the photovoltaic (PV) and storage system must be installed simultaneously with one of the key interventions. Overall investments must increase the energy efficiency rating. In the event of ineligibility, obtaining the existing 10-year, 50% tax credit for small-scale PV generation assets and BESS is possible. Thus, Europe is anticipated to lead the global residential energy storage systems market over the next decade.

For example, in its latest market study for residential energy storage, SolarPower Europe calculates an increase in storage capacity of 71% (3.9 GWh) in the most likely scenario for the past year.

This corresponds to more than 420,000 new storage batteries and a total installed capacity of 9.3 GWh. By the end of 2026, the European industry association even expects total storage capacity to increase by 300% to 32.2 GWh, equivalent to 3.9 million European households optimizing the self-sufficiency of their power supply and limiting their electricity costs.

Germany has kept the undisputed top position in 2022 and 2023 and the number of newly installed solar storage systems continued to surge. The figures recorded by the German Solar Association (BSW) in 2022 – 214,000 new residential storage systems, 3,900 new commercial storage systems and an installed storage capacity of around 6.7 gigawatt hours (GWh) – were far exceeded in 2023. Last year, more than half a million new solar storage systems were installed, bringing the total number of solar batteries to more than one million, and their usable storage capacity to 12 GWh. In theory, this is would be enough to cover the average daily electricity consumption of around 1.5 million two-person households. The Germany Residential Energy Storage market size is estimated to be worth USD 1.67 billion in 2022 and is forecast to a readjusted size of US$ 5.09 billion by 2028 with a CAGR of 20.44% during the review period.

The top position of the German storage market essentially results from the fact that the demand for systems for domestic and commercial solar power generation is driven by the exploding electricity costs and, at the same time, 70 % of newly installed photovoltaic systems are built in combination with a storage battery.

The top five countries combined (Italy 14%, Austria 3%, UK 6%, Switzerland 3%) cover 88% of the market. However, all other markets also grew by an impressive 137 % on average. The strongest growth in this group is shown by Poland and Sweden, which could take 3rd and 4th place in Europe by 2026.

Promotion of Photovoltaic (PV) Systems and Heat Pump (HP) Systems

The Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) currently subsidizes heat pump systems with 35 percent of the eligible costs. These must “meet the corresponding minimum technical requirements.” Further funding options apply to “efficient heat pump systems” in existing buildings. The recently approved BEG reform provides for new funding conditions from 2023. Among other things, there is a 10% heating exchange bonus and a 5% heat pump bonus for the use of water, ground or wastewater heat sources.

The Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection has compiled answers to the most important questions about the BEG reform, which also includes funding options for other renovation measures, here (in German). KfW bank supports the purchase of photovoltaic systems and other energy efficiency measures with cheap loans. In addition, the Annual Tax Act 2022 provides for extensive tax relief for small photovoltaic systems. Changes to income tax should already apply to the tax year 2022.

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Market Dynamics

Falling Costs and Rising Efficiencies of Solar Photovoltaic Panels

Globally, the average price of a solar PV panel has decreased by nearly 90% over the past decade. Since 2011, the prices of other components have also decreased significantly, lowering the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for residential solar PV generation. As a result of the combination of economic and geopolitical factors, the rate of decline in solar PV panel prices will slow slightly. However, it is anticipated that prices will persistently decline over the projected duration.

In addition, the efficiency of solar PV panels has steadily increased over the past decade. With the advent of new technologies and manufacturing capabilities, this trend is anticipated to continue throughout the forecast period. Most commercially available solar panels have efficiency ratings between 16% and 18%; however, the most efficient panels have rates as high as 22.8%. The rising efficiencies of solar panels will likely allow owners and operators to generate more energy and reduce costs while creating a demand for residential ESS systems, thereby boosting market growth.

Declining Lithium-Ion Battery Prices

With the growing demand for lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, manufacturers are currently focusing their efforts on reducing the cost associated with Li-ion technology. Over the last decade, the cost of lithium-ion batteries has decreased dramatically. In 2021, the cost per kWh of lithium-ion batteries was USD 132. The price of lithium-ion batteries had a consistent downward trend, with a reduction of 10.2% on an annual basis, as opposed to the 12.2% decline observed in 2019.

Furthermore, it is anticipated that the average price of lithium-ion batteries will continue to decline and reach approximately USD 74/kWh by 2026, making them significantly more cost-competitive than other battery types. Additionally, as Western battery producers expand production capacity to meet increased demand, global prices are expected to plummet further. Hence, the continuous reduction in the cost, leading to the extensive use of lithium-ion batteries, is expected to drive the residential ESS market during the forecast period.

Lack of Direct Access to Battery Metals

Despite burgeoning demand for residential ESS, the supply chain for battery metals such as Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt is vulnerable to disruptions. Most large markets, such as the United States and Europe, have significant domestic demand and battery manufacturing capabilities. However, most large markets in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific lack domestic reserves of critical battery metal ores such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium.

The dominant control of China over the supply chain for battery metals poses a substantial challenge for battery makers outside of China. Thus, disruptions in the supply chain are anticipated to impose major limitations on the expansion of the worldwide home Energy Storage System (ESS) market over the projected period.

Energy Storage Systems Trends and Opportunities

‘4T’ Energy System – A Conceptual Trend that is already Here

At Intersolar Europe last year (2023), Guoguang Chen, President of Smart PV & ESS Business at Huawei Digital Power, unveiled their smart PV strategy: “Making the Most of Every Ray”.

One very interesting concept approach was their ‘4T’ (WatT, HeaT, BatTery, and BiT) technologies, which refers to Huawei’s innovations in the field of power electronics, thermal management, power storage, and Cloud and AI, which enable traditional solar energy to be more efficient and intelligent. The application of “4T” technologies will also effectively accelerate the energy transition toward the “4D” - Decarbonization, Digitalization, Decentralization, and Democratization.

The “4T” combination enables power consumers to be transformed into power producers!

‘Zero Waste’ Energy Storage Systems

If we look at the first 3 T’s (WatT, HeaT, BatTery), a lot has been accomplished already. There are multiple systems of both electrical and thermal energy production, and when there is an excess of electrical energy production, we can use BESS to store the excess for later use. But what about the excess thermal energy?

If combined with both thermal and electrical storage, PV-driven heat pumps in buildings could support higher self-consumption, according to a study by University of Catania scientists. The researchers have proposed a new energy system consisting of a PV array, an electric heat pump for space heating and cooling, and two different storage systems for heat – Thermal Energy Storage (TES) - and electricity (ESS).

The Italian group of researchers said their proposed configuration significantly reduces the required battery capacity by 10 kWh or more, resulting in many financial and environmental advantages. They noted that surplus energy from PV can be used for ESS charging or activating the HP for TES charging.

The scientists conducted a simulation of the system through the TRNSYS software using a reference building in Catania. The system is assumed to rely on an electric heat pump with a thermal maximum power of 9.5 kW, a radiant floor system, and a 4.8 kW PV system using 300 W panels with an efficiency of 18.4%. Their modeling also considered solar radiation, wind speed, electrical load, electricity prices, and price- and incentive-based DR programs

“The total electricity demand is 10,828 kWh/year, which means 77.3 kWh/m2 (square meter of floor), while the electricity production from PV is 8,855 kWh/year,” they said, noting that around 34.1% of the generated solar power is self-consumed. “Therefore, due to lack of available space for the installation of the PV plant, the demand coverage factor is 81.8%.”

They said that the system could achieve self-consumption and self-sufficiency rates of about 80% if linked to a thermal storage system and a 5 kWh electrical storage system. This high percentage is three times higher than that one achievable by an energy system without storage, according to the researchers.

“It allows for reduction of the emission of at least 1,300 kg CO2 equivalent, while the requested lower capacity of the electrical storage diminishes the installation costs, of about €10,000, which compensate for the extra costs for the installation of the thermal storage, of about €1,500.”

The last ‘T’ (biT) – The Emergence of Artificial Intelligence in Energy Management Systems (EMS)

Think of it as your own Energy Management Assistant – Huawei calls its system EMMA to follow on this Energy Management Assistant idea. In other words, a Home ESS is what enables the owners of photovoltaic arrays to use as much of the solar energy they produce as possible, “Making the Most of Every Ray” - to quote Huawei’s Guoguang Chen.

A Home Energy Management System, or HEMS, is a digital system that monitors and controls energy generation, storage and consumption within a household. HEMS usually optimizes for a goal such as cost reduction, self-sufficiency maximization or emissions minimization. With the increasing adoption of electric mobility and heating, residential PV, and dynamic tariffs, HEMS are becoming more popular as the saving potential increases. Typical assets manageable by these systems may include:

  • Photovoltaic (PV): A PV system, or rooftop solar, is often the first step to a HEMS as it allows households to become independent from the grid (and increasingly volatile electricity prices) and use locally-generated electricity to power the energy-consuming assets in their home. These usually include an inverter to convert the solar power into usable energy that powers household devices.
  • Battery / ESS:  a storage system can store surplus solar power when the sun is shining and allows it to be used later when it is needed.
  • Heat Pump: a heat pump is a highly efficient heating device powered by electricity that extracts heat from an external source rather than producing it. It can be powered by local PV and is therefore becoming an increasingly common part of HEMS.
  • Electric Vehicle (EV): EVs are another flexible energy-consuming asset. Because they usually sit for a long period of time, their charging can be shifted to periods when either solar generation is high or electricity prices are low. The car must be linked to the HEMS via a wallbox or other smart EV charger.
  • Smart Meter: A smart meter is an important element in a HEMS as it provides real-time information on household consumption.
  • White Goods: household devices such as washing machines or fridges can also be controlled intelligently to optimize their electricity consumption.

It is important to note that in order to implement a HEMS, there are certain technical requirements that must be met to ensure consistent functioning of different distributed energy resources (DERs);

  • A stable and reliable internet connection securing proper communication between the energy management system (EMS),server and each energy device would be beneficial but a local network would suffice
  • A local gateway typically in the form of a central control unit, like our gridBox, that optimizes energy flows on site. Cloud-based energy management is also possible without a local gateway, however, this is less prevalent and has increased latency.
  • Software and applications compatible with the hardware to control, monitor and access the DERs in a household.

The main goal of a home energy management system is to cover the energy demand of a household while minimizing costs and/or emissions. Typically, a HEMS reduces costs and emissions by maximizing the utilization of renewable energy  as it aligns consumption with times when renewable energy is available.

Since every household has its individual needs, applications may vary to fit specific demands. HEMS can start with a basic setup involving a few assets and then become more complex to enable more savings:

  • Monitoring: gaining real-time data and visualization of the operational behavior, site-specific details and status of all connected assets.
  • Self-sufficiency optimization: maximizing the amount of self-generated power that is used to power the remaining assets in a home to minimize costs and emissions.
  • Time-of-use tariffs (ToUT): shifting the electricity consumption of  connected DERs, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, to times of low prices.
  • Flexibility Marketing: monetizing the flexibility of assets by feeding energy back into the grid if there is excess power, for example stored in the battery, according to varying electricity prices and grid capacity.
  • Larger use cases: HEMS is the building block that enables larger-scale future energy use cases such as smart districts (energy is connected and optimized across a larger area), virtual power plant (the flexibility of multiple energy assets is aggregated and monetized by participating in wholesale markets) or energy communities (energy is shared via peer-to-peer trading).

To give you a fun, more practical example, a HEMS can help you make the most of battery by controlling the charging mode according to the weather.

And the ‘machine duo’ which will power devices to communicate amongst themselves in the most efficient and automated way possible will be the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Imagine a HEMS which accommodate AI to analyze feasibility of load and weather Big Data acquisition, online load forecasting/prediction, online load priority assignment, online peak clipping estimation on the cloud and peak clipping Demand Side Management.

Imagine a home where Generative AI not only responds to user preferences but learns and adapts autonomously, optimizing energy usage in real-time. Tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch can empower HEMS to analyze data patterns and generate actionable insights, paving the way for an entirely new approach to residential energy consumption.

The Future of Residential ESS

The whole RRES is developing towards higher and higher flexibility, compatibility and scalability.

  1. The high flexibility means that a friendly user interface can be accessed to monitor and manage system operation modes, in order to optimize electricity bills to the biggest extent. This can include choosing solar irradiance peak hours to charge LiB storage and selecting grid peak hours to discharge LiB storage. By collecting and analyzing the big data from end-users, different user portrait models can be generated for realizing automatic optimization of system operation modes.
  2. The high compatibility aims at including more user demand into this eco system, like heat pump and EV chargers. Apart from energy management system (EMS), there will be a central/distributed Gateway solution that is embedded with data analytics models. This Gateway solution can communicate among different products in the eco system.
  3. The high scalability means to build up a bridge between the RRES and utility renewable energy system (URES), the RRES and URES can become each other’s power source or power demand, which helps us to connect the distributed RRES dots and knit a bigger eco network.

Based above understanding of future RRES, we can sense that the future residential ESS will become more and more intelligent, diverse, integrated and with shared community and network infrastructures.

The Future of Other Residential ESS

Following the diverse trend of residential ESS, other types of ESS may enter residential market in one way or the other, such as Vanadium Redox Flow (VRF) ESS and Supercapacitors. Compared to Lithium-ion Battery (LiB) storage, VRF ESS and Supercapacitors have lower gravimetric energy density and therefore bigger footprint, however, both VRF ESS and Supercapacitors can provide longer cyclability and more stable safe operation.

Solid-sate battery (SSB) have gained a lot of attention in recent years. Different from LiB, the electrolyte in SSB is in solid state. Compared to LiB, the gravimetric energy density of SSB is about 1.7–2 times bigger, volumetric energy density is about 1.1–1.6 times bigger, and can operate under higher temperatures (above 100°C). The SSB market size is predicted to be around USD 1.65 billion by 2030. The technology challenge for SSB is to combine both organic and inorganic solid electrolytes for obtaining both lower flammability and higher energy density. Silicon Anode is also a technology trend due to its lower cost, non-flammability, and slower degradation. But Silicon Anode can bring in mechanical issues like voids and cracking.

Performance comparison among different ESS solutions

In the residential market, there already exists SSB based products, this will motivate the development of residential ESS towards better safety, better reliability and smaller footprint.

Apart from different residential ESS solutions, the intelligent BMS will also dominate future technology trends by enabling predictive maintenance models in the cloud. The predictive maintenance model can generate adaptive warranty models and optimize quotation in product proposals. This will greatly sharpen company’s business competency and enhance more opportunities.

Overall, a virtual system is anticipated to upgrade system performance, improve system operation efficiency and detect potential safety risks. It will be a bonus to have the virtual system alive to simulate different what-if scenarios. Thanks to all the research work published, we can now imagine such a virtual system architected with multidiscipline simulations and AI big data models using real-time data, as demonstrated in the below figure.

The virtual system also ages along with time and evolves to always mirror the physical system. In addition, the virtual system can have real-time communication with the physical system. This virtual system is widely recognized as ‘Digital Twin.’ It may not be able to develop fully working Digital Twin at this moment, however, some promising progress is already done by experts in this field.

Conclusions and Recommendations for Success in ESS/BESS Industries

Given the many customer segments that are available, the different business models that exist, and the impending technology shifts, it is important that we finish by reflecting upon what are the best tactics to ensure success in this market. Here are four actions that may contribute to a winning strategy:

  • Identify an underserved need in the value chain: In a nascent industry such as this, it pays for companies to think about other products and services that they could get into, whether through organic moves or inorganic ones. For instance, is there anything to stop a system integrator from doing battery packaging in-house? Or from co-developing a new cell chemistry with a battery manufacturer? For that matter, is there anything to keep a battery manufacturer from adding system-integration or service capabilities to appeal to a specific BESS segment, such as utilities?
  • Software is a particularly critical area to explore: The value of storage systems will likely evolve from just hardware into the software that controls and enhances the system, unlocking the opportunity to capture larger customer segments and higher margins. BESS players need to develop these capabilities early or risk having to outsource to ‘trendier’ platforms that will emerge.
  • Build resilience in supply chains: Many critical BESS components (ranging from battery cells to semiconductors in inverters and control systems) rely on complex supply chains, which are susceptible to supply shocks from a multitude of sources, including raw material shortages and regulation changes. Strategic partnerships, multi-sourcing, and local sourcing are all levers to consider when defining a supply chain strategy, while not forgetting to plan for potential technology shifts. In addition to this, strategic partnerships with large engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) players ready for large-scale BESS installations are crucial to ensure successful execution of BESS projects.
  • Focus on the product features that matter most: Product specifications should reflect what customers care about. Such an approach is especially important given that price competition is likely to remain a permanent reality in the BESS market. For example, making the right decision on system architecture and integrating with existing customer infrastructure (say, by coupling direct current with photovoltaic technology as well as other already installed branded appliances) could reduce the barriers to entry for many customers.
  • Think big and move fast. With BESS in the spotlight and revenues starting to increase rapidly, now is not a time to play it safe. While it’s true that the market is highly fragmented, it’s also true that some bigger players are starting to amass market share. This raises the stakes for all companies, especially for small ones that may have just started research projects and now find themselves sitting on top of a high potential fast moving market. These companies will likely need to take some risks to have a chance of gaining share and avoid being muscled out by bigger companies.

The BESS market is in an explosive stage of development. Players that don’t move now will miss out. The winners in the market may prove to be the companies that exhibit the four actions mentioned above.

These ‘winners’ will create and define the brand tribes customers seek in this energy transition movement.

#China #ChinaNewThree #NewThree #新三样 #XinSanYang #SolarPower #Photovoltaic #SolarPanels #SolarCells #ElectricVehicles #EV #NewEnergyVehicles #NEV #LithiumBatteries #Lithium-ion #Li-ion #Battery #EnergyStorageSystems #ESS #RMBMoreira

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