Covid-19 epidemic will end. Brace yourself for a tough 12 - 24 months.

The world has been turned upside down by Covid-19 epidemic. The last 3 months have been strange times:

We fell asleep in 2019, it was one world where :

We were essential... The air, earth, water and sky was ours. We felt we are masters."

and woke up in another.

Suddenly home quarantine became the norm

Disney is out of magic,

Paris is no longer romantic,

New York doesn't stand up anymore,

the Chinese wall is no longer a fortress, and Mecca is empty.

Hugs & kisses suddenly became weapons, and not visiting parents & friends became an act of love.

Suddenly we realised that power, beauty & money are not that worthy, and can't get us the oxygen if we have to fight for a ventilator. We learn the difficulties of living in a cage, how to cope and live with in 4 walls .

We also learned we are not necessary. The air, earth, water and sky without we are finer.

When we are back, we might need to remember that we are natures guests. Not its master."

The world will be there and will continue its life and it is going to be beautiful.

No one can say for certain when Covid-19 pandemic will end. But it will end.

Remember All of the past, pandemics have typically lasted between 12 and 36 months.

In 2009, a novel H1N1 flu pandemic occurred. (Remember swine flu?) The WHO declared a pandemic that June, and by mid-September, the FDA approved four vaccines for the virus, and they started getting administered in October. In late December, vaccination was opened up to anyone who wanted it, and the pandemic was deemed over in August 2010.

Here is the list of other pandemics of past which all lasted 1 to 2 years

Spanish Flu: 1918-1920

Asian Flu: 1957-1958

H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic - SARS: 2009-2010

West African Ebola epidemic: 2014-2016

We can't simply model a new pandemic against a past one and accurately determine how bad or long *this* pandemic will be—because they are not the same viruses, and viruses behave and spread differently. But with the genetic code already learned and more info becomes available about COVID-19, predicting an end for this in 2021 is not an outlier assumption.

Do we understand Corona well

#Covid19 is different from the flue or influenza.

. It’s a lot more deadly.

. So far 3 to 4% is fatal . Once more data is available the true death rate would be 1%.

. It’s more contagious . 2 to 2.5 people get infected from one patient

. 15% needs Oxigen Critical care and 5% needs ventilators

. There is no vaccine available yet

#Corona is uniquely dangerous due to three attributes that make it both hard to contain and quite lethal: 1) it is easily transmitted, 2) there are many undetected disease carriers because symptoms are mild in many cases and they do not appear for up to 12 days, and 3) the mortality rate is high enough to do major damage.

Sure this epidemic could overwhelm our health-care resources and disrupt the everyday processes in life we all rely on like going to school, work, shopping centers, and public gatherings in 2020.” The horse is out of the barn.” We have learned 2 serious facts about the virus itself now: a. There’s evidence that people who do not show severe symptoms can spread it silently. b. The slow rollout of diagnostic tests in countries , make it impossible to find the precise case count or know where the virus might be spreading.

About one in five people might loose working hours or jobs. Hotels are already empty. Airlines have grounded flights. Restaurants and other small businesses are closing. Inequalities might widen: People with low incomes might be hardest-hit by social-distancing measures, and most likely to have the chronic health conditions that increase their risk of severe infections. Covid 19 might destabilize cities and societies many times over for a very long time, or to quite the extent that we’re seeing now,”

Just because the virus isn’t being contained doesn’t mean we’re powerless to prevent serious illness and deaths among the most vulnerable. There’s still a lot communities can do to slow the spread, save lives, and buy crucial time for either a cure or a vaccine to be developed. Short-term strategy has to be to drive down cases as much as possible to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed - when we run out of intensive care beds then deaths spike. In the meantime, we all need to keep practicing all of the hygiene and lifestyle habits we have been hearing over and over. New cases in China are now declining thanks to the government’s dramatic measures to contain the virus — mainly case finding, contact tracing, and suspension of public gatherings. We also need to stop panicking and stigmatizing people of different ethnicities— this will only make people more hesitant to speak out and seek care. Disease should show us that we are all connected and need to help each other, not divide us.”

There are essentially 4 ways out of this mess.

- vaccination

- enough people develop immunity through infection

- permanently change our behaviour/society.

- Developing drugs that can successfully treat a Covid-19 infection could aid the other strategies too.

Each of these routes would reduce the ability of the virus to spread. It means to end this outbreak, for good, we’ll need antiviral treatments or a vaccine.

We will start to see the page turn in 2021, At that point, we may have a vaccine, and we will have much more experience with this disease. Vaccine research is taking place at unprecedented speed. Right now, researchers are working on multiple vaccines in both animal and human trials. The first person was given an experimental vaccine in the US in March second fortnight after researchers were allowed to skip the usual rules of performing animal tests first. Researchers are also working on new vaccine technologies — like mRNA vaccines that don’t use viruses at all in their production process — as well as cutting-edge therapeutic antibodies. Researchers might need one- to two years to develop and launch a new vaccine. It could be a year or more before the safety and efficacy of these pharmaceuticals are proven. In medicine, effectiveness is not guaranteed. But even if it takes a year or more to produce, those treatments could still prove useful. So in the meanwhile both governments and individuals need to do the job of trying to develop interventions that could be used if it gets worse. ... We need ways of protecting ourselves.”

Economic impact

But during this period there will be serious disruptions in economic activity, freedom of movement and association, and freedom from frequent, mandatory blood testing and quarantines? Shutting down national economies and suspending civil liberties is another form of widespread suffering.

We are only beginning to understand this. Here are some initial thoughts:

· Governments will learn to strike a balance between controlling the spread of COVID-19 and allowing individual freedoms and economic activity. As a result, there will be more friction in everyday life. And, unpredictable COVID-19 hot spots plus political pressure on leaders to show action will trigger intermittent strong reactions: lock downs, arbitrary travel bans, widespread quarantines, intrusive screening of people crossing boundaries.

· Virtual work will become much more common. Zoom.us will fly even higher.

· Businesses will become better able to withstand disruptions: supplier shut-downs, sudden employee absences, demand slumps caused by disease outbreaks.

· Employers will need to give employees more flexibility to avoid travel or take care of sick dependents

· For many businesses, certification of disease control processes and standards will be a key part of the brand. Government, industry, or specialist certifications will emerge, similar to ISO 9001. Companies that host customers send employees to customer premises will need to reassure that their people are carefully tested and monitored.

· Travel will “cost” more due to the risk of infection and lock-down while traveling as well as the added work airlines, hotels, and restaurants will need to do to minimize infection risk

· Delivery businesses and take-out (from certified restaurants) will do well. “Contactless delivery” is already a thing.

· Road-warrior work will gravitate to younger people who have less to fear from COVID.

· Industries that supply products to help avoid, manage, mitigate or treat COVID-19 infection will do well. The number of hospital rooms will need to grow, and hospital and governments will need reserves of equipment, supplies and drugs.

· Industries conducting activities that enhance COVID-19 risk will suffer: aviation, hospitality, cruises especially, conventions, etc.

· We will each be responsible for self-monitoring and reporting COVID-19 status, and for challenging those who appear to be ill. This is particularly true with a disease for which part of the population is at serious risk and another part has much less risk.

· In the near term, businesses are likely to face, and need to prepare for, a demand slump and liquidity crisis, as the world comes to terms with living in a state of medical siege.

This is a rather a not so comforting prediction. Perhaps containment will succeed, technology will ride to the rescue, or COVID-19 will mutate sufficiently slowly that immunity can persist, and a long-lasting vaccine can be created. We can hope for the best, but we need to prepare for a new set of serious challenges.

Individuals need to brace up for the impact

Individuals also need to brace up for the big recession challenge .. Something in our lives needed to change, we might need to prepare strategies to take the leap.

. Organize your finances.

. Prepare for the next 18-24 months! Imagine your economy is going to a serious recession and start doing research into what kind of coping up you will do and the kind of life you want to live.

. Come up with a budget to manage the next 24 months. Figure about how much you think you must spend. Factor in lodging, food, transportation, health and a buffer for the extras.

. Start saving every penny possible. Saving and budgeting your finances is not glamorous, but it’s an important part of your coping up.

1) Get out of debt if you can.

2) Pay credit cards outstanding without fail every month

3) Cook at home. Little things like buying lunches every day and takeout every week add up. Having lunches prepped in advance and ready means there is no excuse to buy.

4) Sell things you don’t need and discontinue subscriptions which are not essential

5) Have more than one account you can draw from in case anything happens to one of them.

6) Avoid all non essential travel and movements

7) Cash is king .. review your investment performance before investing further

. Stick to your job and help the ones become unemployed. See if there is an option to work remotely or even just take an extended leave of absence (yes, unpaid, if it’s really needed!).

. Prepare emotionally well for the losses and tough times ahead. Big life changes are stressful! Consider cutting back on caffeine and alcohol to help keep your immune system healthy.

. Get healthy and try all possible steps not to get caught with Covid 19. Make sure you are up to date on all of your vaccines (and check to see if you need any additional ones) and make sure you have any prescriptions that you need on hand. Try meditation to help ease your mind. Try app Calm or other apps out there. Take some time every day to focus on your breath. Whatever works for you, just make time for self-care. Also, add some yoga and strength training to your workouts. Walk more. Your body will thank you later.

. There will also be a fear and self-doubt that arises when faced with the reality of how much life is about to change. Take some self-care time to reflect on the options to overcome this tough time . Surround digitally yourself with people who are supportive. Seek out communities for support if you need it. Chances are they’ve been there, too.

. Your kids are going to be at home for more time and online teaching is going to be the norm.

. Decide how and what all you'll do for your family and to help others. First, decide what kind of life you will have and how you want to go about it.

. We need to be hooked on to life, exploring and love the freedom that we created for us with a proper understanding that we have stepped onto a new path in 2020.

So let’s wish success for those researchers, medics and wish for survival for each one of us. science will come up with solutions and let’s hope that will happen quickly . One thing is certain .. It will also end !