On these days in 2020 - 25th and 26th April

SATURDAY 25TH APRIL 2020

Facts and figures.

813 UK deaths overnight.

47 in Scotland.

23 in Wales.

16 In Northern Ireland.

711 in England.

Total hospital deaths in the UK so far now stands at 20,319.

Tragic milestone.

The milestone figure of over 20,000 deaths had previously been earmarked as significant by scientists advising the government.

On 17th March 2020 Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Officer, said that keeping the number of UK deaths below 20,000 would be a ‘good result.’

 ‘If we can get this down to 20,000 and below, that is a good outcome in terms of where we would hope to get to with this outbreak.’

The Home Secretary Priti Patel described it as,

 ‘a tragic and terrible milestone.’

Some commentators believe that the figure quoted should be doubled, with the true number of deaths nearer 40,000 when adding non-hospital deaths in care homes and individual households.

Model citizens.

Imperial College London who has been providing ‘models’ for the government to anticipate outcomes against options said that without the stringent social distancing measures that we put in place, the UK would have been on course for around 250,000 deaths. A terrifying prospect, if accurate.

Daily news.

Oxford University has reportedly developed a test which checks antibodies to determine whether someone has developed immunity after having COVID-19. It will be ready for June 2020 and is similar to a pregnancy test.

After the test, you look in the little window; if two lines appear, it means you have antibodies and are immune. If you get one line, it means you do not and are vulnerable to the disease. The tests cost £10 each, and the government has ordered 50 million of them.

Whoops.

Contrasting advice has been issued today from The World Health Organisation, which tells us not to rely on immunity tests as some people have been re-infected in East Asia.

The WHO said,

 ‘There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection. At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk free certificate.”

Interest.

European countries are tiptoeing into releasing lockdowns and searching to get the right balance between allowing more freedoms and risking re-igniting infection and a potential second wave. Meanwhile, the UK looks on with interest, with two weeks to go until the next lockdown review.

Belgium is opening small stores next week and their schools the week after. They are also insisting on people wearing facemasks on public transport and in shops. There have been reports that they will slowly allow contacts, with people having to nominate ten people who they can regularly socialise with whilst still being cautious.

Spain and Italy have opened small stores and some parts of their manufacturing businesses.

There is controversy and protests from businesses in Germany as small stores are being allowed to open, but larger stores and cafés are not. Angela Merkel says that this is ‘only the beginning’ of the pandemic and they must remain cautious.

Vicarious infection.

As for the UK. In the papers, stories are circulating about the ‘choose ten people’ option, mentioned above which Belgium is reportedly looking into. The idea is that you nominate ten people close to you who you can interact with.

The big question is do the ten people all have to select each other? If not, I think it problematical and a risk. Why? Because I would nominate ten people. Each of those would nominate ten people, who in turn are selecting ten people and so on. Before you know it, there are a thousand people all, vicariously socialising with each other. Even with the first option, some of my ten people will work in hospitals, or schools etc. and be exposed more than I would have been. It is a risk before a treatment, or any workable vaccines exist.

Other newspapers report other intended measures are being considered. The Daily Telegraph says that there will be a 2-week quarantine to enter the UK. This would mirror Australia and Singapore’s approach. In Australia you are put into a hotel room and monitored, the suggestion here is that people just give an address and promise to stay there!

Aids memoire.

Further afield in the African nations they appear to be limiting the coronavirus reasonably well with less than fifteen hundred deaths so far and a low 28,000 total confirmed cases.

It is suggested that this is because they have greater experience with epidemics such as AIDS and Ebola. They have an established network of designated contacts in all small communities who are pro-active in identifying anyone with symptoms and so close it down immediately. I hadn’t considered this, and it is welcome news, although it is still very early days, I suppose.

Welched.

Innovative electrical goods supplier Dyson has said that the UK government no longer requires the medical ventilators it designed and built to treat patients with COVID-19.

Ministers had appealed for UK manufacturers to help with the shortage of ventilators, but the demand has so far been less than envisaged. Dyson's ventilator is undergoing clinical tests, and the government had previously said it intended to buy 10,000 machines.

This is a shame when Dyson have stepped up to the plate to help the country in our hour of need, and I hope and expect that they will have a market elsewhere in the world, and possibly even back here in the UK if we have the anticipated second wave.

Down stroke.

Concern has been expressed about a considerable drop in attendance at hospital Accident and Emergency Departments. Visits by the public are down 50%. Medical experts want people to seek medical attention and not be put off by the coronavirus pandemic. Anyone delaying doing so is potentially putting their long-term health at risk, as well as their life. The number of people seeking treatment for heart attacks and strokes is down.

England’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty warned of this potential early on in the crisis when he referred to ‘indirect deaths’ caused by the coronavirus.

4 pm Press Briefing. Priti Patel Home Secretary.

The Royal College of Surgeons has said they believe that the delayed operations backlog could take 5 years to catch up. This will cost lives.

DIY funerals.

Journalists query mixed messages from the government with regard to the measures in place. The large DIY store B&Q has been allowed to open up, creating huge queues, yet they want us to stay at home and keep funerals to ten people. The Home Secretary rejects the premise of mixed messages.

The National Crime Agency representative reports that organised criminals are exploiting the crisis.

A million pounds worth of cocaine has been discovered hidden in boxes of surgical face masks being smuggled through the Channel Tunnel.

False PPE is being sold, and faulty test kits are being offered online.

Some crime is down, but fraud and drugs offences continue and, in some cases, rise.

Author’s note: Drug dealers and their operations aren’t privy to the Chancellor’s furlough scheme.

The effect on crime caused by everyone being in their homes is interesting. In Miami, Florida, I see that they have not had a homicide in seven weeks for the first time since 1957 when it went nine weeks and three days without any reported murders.

2 out of 5 – see me.

The Home Secretary refers to five pillars which must be met before lockdown can be released. How many of these have we reached so far, in reality?

1)    Protect the NHS – we have done that so far by ‘flattening the curve.’

2)    The death rate is sufficiently down – That is yet to happen, and while it is not rising, it is very high at 7-800 a day.

3)    Infection rates are down - The r number of transmissions by an infected person is below 1 in most places, but we are still having 5,000 new cases a day.

4)    Testing is ready now and for the future - It is yet to reach its target of 100,000 a day, and the antibody testing seems to be either not ready or irrelevant if re-infection is possible.

5)    There is no chance of a second wave occurring – This is a tricky one and the ‘catch-all’ condition that can always be used to argue to retain a lockdown. With the state of the emerging coronavirus epidemic in developing countries and the middle east, coupled with the potential for re-infection, I do not think you can say there is no chance of a second wave until you have a cure or a vaccine.

Author’s note. As with all conditions, there is scope to argue them in or argue them out, dependent on where those in power want to steer the mob.

Dummy.

In America, Donald Trump has been under pressure after people mocked his ‘inject disinfectant’ debacle. Seemingly in a fit of pique, minutes before the daily briefing was due to start, he cancelled it with a tweet at 11.01 GMT.

‘What is the purpose of having White House news Conferences when the Lamestream media asks nothing but hostile questions & then refuses to report the truth or facts accurately. They get record ratings & the American people get nothing but fake news. Not worth the time and effort.’

He has thrown his dummy out of the pram. Surely this is unacceptable for a world leader in the middle of a pandemic?

Family life.

We had ‘Lily’s Saturday Fun Time’ on video today. All my children come onto the House Party app, and we can see each other and chat and play games. My daughter, Lily seems to love it.

It is adorable, but it makes me miss them even more, and I would love to be able to give little Lily a great big hug. Games include quizzes and spelling tests for Lily as well as word games and drawing games. It is an alien existence we are living, and we cannot do a thing about it.

Quote of the day:

‘A lot of you cared, just not enough.’ Jay Asher.

SUNDAY 26TH APRIL 2020

Facts and figures.

413 hospital deaths in the UK.

18 Scotland.

14 Wales.

15 Northern Ireland.

336 England.

Total deaths in the UK 20,732.

Author’s note. Unlike other countries, the UK figure only includes hospital deaths, not care homes or households – some estimates think this figure could be double.

769,850 tests have been done.

29,058 tests done yesterday.

162,840 have tested positive.

4,463 new cases overnight.

There are 15,953 currently in hospital with COVID-19.

Some additional figures:

The USA has 961,969 cases of COVID-19

Deaths from COVID in the USA: 54,530

Worldwide cases of COVID-19: 2,962,915

Worldwide deaths: 205,936

Countries around Europe are starting to release their lockdown measures, and it is worth noting the different impacts on the countries and their chosen methods to mitigate risk as they try to ease back to some sort of normality. It will be our turn at some stage soon.

ITALY

195,351 cases.

2,357 new cases yesterday.

26,384 total deaths.

Italy issued a nationwide lockdown on March 9th, 2020 ordering its 60 million residents to stay home. Schools, universities and all non-essential businesses were closed, with supermarkets, banks, pharmacies and post offices allowed to remain open. Travel within Italy was banned except for health reasons or urgent matters.

People are only allowed to leave home for set reasons; grocery shopping, and the doctors, and they need a printed certificate declaring their reason for leaving the house. Violations attract fines between 400 to 3000 euros or up to 3 months in jail.

The original deadline to end lockdown of April 3rd, 2020, was extended to April 13th, and then again to 3rd May 2020. On April 14th, 2020, the Italian government relaxed some restrictions by allowing bookshops, clothing stores for children, and other small shops to open.

The Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte said manufacturing could restart as soon as 4th May 2020. At least one region, Veneto, defied the central government and relaxed restrictions on cemeteries, takeaways, and pizzerias last week.

SPAIN

219,764 cases.

23,190 deaths from COVID-19.

Yesterday's deaths – 288.

Spain has been in lockdown for 47 days, declaring a lockdown on 14th March 2020. (compared to UK’s 35 days). Non-essential shops and schools were closed down as well as hotels and tourist accommodation. It also closed its borders. Outdoor exercise was banned apart from walking a dog. The Spanish took this very seriously with thousands of police and military on the streets.

As of today, children (under 14’s) have been allowed to leave their homes for the first time in six weeks, so long as an adult accompanies them. They will be allowed one hour of supervised outdoor activity each day between 9 am, and 9 pm within 1 km of their home, and social distancing must be observed. Also, starting on 2nd May 2020, Spaniards will be allowed to leave their homes for short walks and exercise. Some construction and manufacturing workers are allowed to work.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said,

 ‘maximum caution will be our guideline for the rollback. We must be very prudent because there is no manual, no road map to follow.’

Fernando Simon, the head of Spain’s centre for health emergencies, allowed some non-essential workers to return to their jobs a fortnight ago, and this has not had any negative impact.

FRANCE

122,875 cases overall.

New cases 1,537.

Total deaths 22,580.

In France, the government has had a strict nationwide lockdown since 17th March 2020, banning all public gatherings and telling residents to stay inside except for essential tasks. All non-essential shops, open-air markets have been ordered to shut. People have to fill out a form stating their reason to leave the house. Outdoor exercise is only permitted once a day and must be alone and not exceed one hour. Families are allowed to take walks but must remain within a kilometre of their homes. Walking the dog is allowed, but they must record the time they leave the house to ensure the hour limit is not exceeded.

Those breaching the rules face fines of 135 – 3,700 Euros and up to 6 months in prison for repeat offending.

GERMANY

154,175 cases overall.

1,737 new cases.

5,640 deaths overall.

Germany has a very low death rate compared to others, and curiously have fallen short of ordering their 80 million population to remain at home. (Bavaria and Saarland did put their residents on full lockdown telling them to say at home). They have employed a strategy of strict social distancing, which began on 22nd March 2020. Public gatherings of more than two people are banned, except for families and those who live together. Restaurants were told to close unless they did delivery and collect. Hairdressers and tattooists were declared part of the nonessential shops told to shut. Exercising outside is allowed but with a distance of 1.5 metres apart.

Measures were eased last week, 20th April 2020, leading to an increase in social activities that has worried some health authorities. Shops with floor space less than 800 square metres were allowed to open their doors, along with car showrooms, bookstores, and bicycle shops. Masks are mandatory in shops and on public transport from 27th April 2020.

Lockdown restrictions will remain until 3rd May 2020 when the government plans to re-open some schools the day after.

RUSSIA

74,588 cases overall.*

5,966 new cases.

681 deaths.

*WHO figures – some scepticism exists regarding the figures posted by Russia.

President Vladimir Putin seemed initially to be in denial, suggesting that the virus had not reached his country. However, on 30th March 2020, Moscow imposed a city-wide quarantine, which has been extended until further notice. It applies to all Muscovites with exceptions for medical care, shopping for food, or going to work. Russia’s second city St Petersburg has now done the same, along with other pockets around the country.

Starting April 15th, 2020, Moscow will implement a digital pass system, and residents will be required to download a QR code to move around the city, declaring their route in advance.

Violating the system’s rules could result in fines between 1,000 to 40,000 roubles ($13.70 to $548).

Russia’s Parliament has approved strict new laws with penalties up to 7 years in prison for violating quarantine rules and ‘causing others to die.’

On March 28th, 2020, President Putin ordered a month-long nationwide holiday, telling the country to take work off until April 30th 2020.

OTHERS

In India, millions have been without work for weeks and are facing starvation. The most vulnerable being those workers who work day-to-day and are paid daily. Their earnings have been closed off since 25th March 2020.

They have scarcely imposed any restrictions in Sweden, shops, restaurants, and junior schools have stayed open. It is notable that their death rates are 200 per million people, compared with 31 per million in neighbouring Finland and 36 per million in Norway, who have locked down.

The WHO has warned of 10 million cases in Africa within three to six months, although it could be lower if authorities act quickly to contain outbreaks.

South and Central America are in deep crisis, with Brazil emerging too as a significant hotspot. Their president Jair Bolsonaro is mentioned earlier in this diary as being dismissive of the virus.

New York COVID-19 deaths have fallen to the rate it was 21 days ago. Governor Cuomo wants to get testing to 40,000 a day and is signing an executive order to allow local chemists to be involved. It sounds like a good idea. He feels the testing is key to getting people back to work safely.

Two mink farms in the Netherlands have been cordoned off after two of the animals tested positive for COVID-19. This, along with cats being tested positive, is something of a concern, and I wonder if this might become more problematic with pet owners in the future. I recall other diseases where animals shared illnesses such as ‘Mad Cow Disease’ (Bovine spongiform encephalopathy), and ‘Bird Flu’ (Avian influenza, mainly H5N1), but certainly not domestic animals.

Daily news.

Sunday’s newspaper headlines:

PM’s back to tighten grip on crisis.

 – Sunday Express.

Scientists hail game changing immunity test.

 – The Mail on Sunday.

PM returns to face lockdown dilemma as scientists warn over grim virus data.

 – The Observer.

Two weeks quarantine if travelling to the UK.

 – The Sunday Telegraph.

‘Raring to go.’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to return fully to work on Monday (tomorrow). We learn he had a three-hour summit with the Cabinet on Friday to get up to speed. He says he is ‘raring to go.’ He has some big decisions to make, not least with the growing clamour to ease the lockdown provisions. I wonder if his near-death experience with COVID-19 will make him more cautious?

4 pm Press Briefing. George Eustace. Environment Secretary.

Before the pandemic, there were 2.1 million delivery slots per day available across major supermarkets.

There are now 2.6 million available after increasing the infrastructure and supply chain.

In the next few weeks, it will be increased further to 2.9 million

Lack of puff.

France has had to limit nicotine products as they have been purchased in bulk due to a recent study suggesting smokers are less likely to get COVID-19 and have a higher chance of survival.

2.6 challenge.

Today should have been The London Marathon, and its cancellation will be a hit to numerous charities of £66.4 million. Charities are struggling to survive because of the pandemic and the lockdown with events being cancelled. The organisers of the marathon suggested doing a ‘2.6 challenge’. Do a challenge involving the numbers 2 or 6 for charity. (There are 26 miles in a marathon). It might be running 2.6 miles, or swimming 2.6 kilometres. Things like that.

The 2.6 challenge has already raised over £4 million for charity.

The mental health charity MIND has so far lost £12-20 million.

Overall, charities have lost £4 billion in donations since the lockdown began. There will be consequences for individuals because of this. It is another example of the indirect impact of COVID-19.

Bell weather.

Some potentially good news on work in the UK for an antibody test. Sir John Bell at Oxford University says that an antibody test (showing if you have ever had COVID-19) could be available in June 2020.

The WHO worried initially that there might not be immunity from COVID-19, but ongoing work in England seems to show otherwise. After catching the coronavirus, it takes two weeks to get an antibody. It takes four weeks to build up the optimum antibodies. Immunity after that follows, but the length of this remains to be seen.

Family life.

The lady was pleased.

I completed my volunteer task today by collecting some shopping for a lady. Naturally, it didn’t go as expected because the Royal Voluntary Service stated in the instructions to volunteers that the store will ring the person to get payment over the phone. The store had heard nothing of this, and I spoke to numerous members of staff. In the end, the store said they would pay for it. It was less than £10 but, still, this was a kind gesture in troubled times. Thank you to Morrison’s. The lady was pleased.

My kids are keeping busy, Chris is working both online and teaching in school, and Andy is working normally at Cancer Research at the City Hospital in Nottingham.

‘Playing favourites.’

My son Harry is helping me with my second audiobook, and he has started doing a podcast with his friend. It is an amusing chat between the two of them and is called ‘Playing Favourites.’ They have a topic suggested for them and decide which one is their favourite. The first broadcast was ‘root vegetables.’ Chris might also be employing Harry to make a film for his school about the second world war. All very pleasing.

I am glad they are occupying themselves and not just stagnating.

Quote of the day:

‘And although I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains, and (yet) have not charity, I am nothing.’ – Corinthians I

Continue reading:

CORONAVIRUS 2020 VISION PARTS ONE AND TWO ARE NOW AVAILABLE ON AUDIBLE AND ITUNES. PART 3 IS COMING SOON. CHECK OUT THE SAMPLE BY CLICKING BELOW AND CLICKING AT THE FOOT OF THE COVER.