The Decline of the West(ern engineering)

** A slightly different discussion here, and (probably) part one of two, the second taking the idea further into the current hype train of AI. But AI in what it could and should be, not just the limited VC money rush on GenAI. There will be a bit of software methodology mentioning too. Context is key, as well as king.

Consider this graph:

The sales of two brands of children's toys. Meccano and Lego. I am not going to introduce gender-targeted influences on this, but might do that for fun using the data at some point later. My gut feeling is that doesn't make any difference here due to the date of the inflexion ponit.

What is going on here? At some point in the mid-to-late 60s the sales of Meccano declined to approximately zero, and Lego exploded. I am sure there are many explanations, but I'm going to take a different slant, not one I've seen before. Of course, if you have encountered me over the years, you might have heard this before.

It is well-known that Britain went through a decline in manufacturing, starting from the 50s through to the 70s and never recovering. There are various reasons well documented elsewhere. But it happened. From the heights of the Industrial Revolution and changing the world, to a four-day week and strikes and never attaining anything remotely like those heights. The parallels to this pattern are all over the world, but that is not the direction I am taking on this.

There was a decline. It never recovered. There are of course pockets of engineering, but nowhere where it was. And this rise and decline is mirrored in the sales of Meccano against Lego.

Why is that important? So very what? You can correlate all sorts of things, and all sorts of things have been correlated for comedic value in the past.

But I do think there is a story to tell in this data. From a culturally contextual point of view.

Meccano kits were models that came with pre-formed parts, much the same way Lego kits are models that come with pre-formed parts. But there is a vast difference. Meccano required the use of tools for assembling. It was, in all essence, mechanical engineering. Wrenches and spanners and nuts and bolts. Nothing as simple as click one brick on to another. The instructions involved more thinking, more preparation, more design, more care.

The inter-to-post war years coincide more-or-less with the height of Meccano, and coincide more-or-less with the height (and end sequence) of British manufacturing engineering domination. The inflexion point of producer to consumer is at the junction where Meccano, the engineering approach, was replaced by Lego, the outsourced thought approach.

Couple that with there was always deliberate mistakes in the Meccano instructions, in order to cause the budding engineer to think about what they were building, adapt and learn new techniques. Not the by-rote hand-holding of Lego. Imagine the outcry if the latest Lego comic-licensed adult-priced set had a printing error. Because those building blindly, and blithely, obey the page.

This is not to say Lego constructions aren't intricate, nor beuatiful pieces of engineering end results. They are. I have more than a few. But it boils down, as ever, to something similar in software development.

The Build Versus Buy approach. The Doing Advanced Things With Y versus Advanced Y. It would be very pejorative to say that Lego is a dumbed down version of Meccano, but there are legs in that argument. And...that is almost the point of this essay.

With the fall of thinking through a problem to being given the problem tightly coupled to its solution (and ready-made blocks to get to that solution) came the fall of British manufacturing industry. It dovetails nicely. A generation of engineers to a generation of pre-fab labourers in a generation. And also followed the fall of mathematical sciences in the public school system.

(Don't believe me? Even in my lifetime, as I was going through college, more and more of what I did earlier was pushed later in the system. Calculus at O Level disappeared to A Level, and eventually to first year undergraduate. Meantime, as I watched my children go through education, that hadn't reversed. But the humanities were taught so much better than the way it was to me. Probably something in there, but no one wants to hear that.)

Meccano versus Lego. Building software to suit your needs versus an API from a service in AWS.

Lego versus Meccano. Quickly building what others have designed versus learning how it is built from scratch.

The world moves to a few providers that everyone uses. Skills gets lost, and it is an easy rallyng cry for a politician of any ilk to play on the heart strings and bluster about remembering when we made stuff ourselves, without having to import everything from China. I mean, we outsourced to cheap labour, not sure what they expected.

And no one has time to learn the underlying concepts any more it seems. Is this the inherent physicist in me coming through? Or just getting older and wondering why no one asks the right questions anymore? Of course use the right tool for the job, but that implies you understand the problem and all the available tools. Not just have to click a config setting on a UI in the cloud and everything appears in the way the vendor designed, which might grate a touch on what you really wanted.

Meccano versus Lego. Fundementals with practical applications set against an application given.

Lego versus Meccano. Prebaked without user input set against prebaked with total engineer buy-in.

Even the free play with those toys are very different. A box of Lego bricks can be put to whatever your imagination deigns. To do the same with a box of Meccano metal plates would take a lot more ingenuity. Lego gives you something quicker, but flimsier. Meccano gives you a solid structure, but takes more time and care. Lego is a safety net, Meccano need consideration.

(I've suddently remembered Airfix kits, which I would wager follows the same trend as Meccano, although it still has a following and likely won't have dwindled to nothing.)

Look at conferences, too. The shift from the whats with the hows to promotional pitches for a product. If even there are any technical talks at a technical conference. I am sure there is also some economics to be discussed in here. Big Tech(tm) eating the world and doling out the scraps they want to give. Not all of this is bad, but this isn't about being fair or balanced, I just want to make the point of the decline in thought-led engineering to spoon-fed construction via the medium of two brands of childrens toy, both of which crossed my childhood in some form.

Is there an answer to reverse this trend? Probably, but not likely one that is shouted by nostalgic politicans. Not the misguided good old days right end of things, nor the misguided nationalise everything left end of things. It is not recentring STEM in schools, although with my bias I'd be all for that. And the answer certainly doesn't lie in some LinkedIn wannabe ThoughtLeadingInnovationClickBaitEngagement nonsense leaking from his skewed attempt at provocation. Pretty poor attempt at provocation, as I do think there is something in here.

The world moves on, maybe we have to accept the West sits in its playpen and simply puts moulded bricks together, with pockets of holdouts in various places, while the East accelerates its understanding of what is needed to make the moulds. And likely the playpen too.