Did Erdogan cancel his White House visit because of the war on Gaza?

Did Erdogan cancel his White House visit because of the war on Gaza?

By Ragip Soylu - MEE Turkey Bureau Chief


Good morning,

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to postpone his highly anticipated state visit to Washington came as a surprise to many here in Turkey since his administration had repeatedly requested such a meeting with US President Joe Biden.

Late last week, Turkish and American officials said the meeting between the two leaders would take place at “a future time” after the resolution of a “schedule conflict.”

For months, Ankara had requested a meeting between the two leaders in an attempt at mending the fractured Turkey-US relationship.

Erdogan and senior AKP (Justice and Development Party) officials were slated to make their first visit Washington after last May’s election victory, and the trip would have capped months of breakthroughs, the first coming after Ankara ratified Sweden’s accession to Nato.

However, days before the official announcement was made, there were signs the one-on-one meeting could be scrapped.

OdaTV, an opposition outlet which frequently publishes news stories without sources, ran a story on 20 April that the meeting was going to be cancelled following Congress’ decision to approve a $26bn aid package to Israel.

The story created a buzz in political circles with Turkish officials saying there was no “official” cancellation as of yet.

Then Aytuc Erkin, a columnist for the opposition leaning Sozcu newspaper, published a piece on 25 April, saying the visit could be cancelled within 48 hours, with one source telling him that “a clear stance must be taken on the Gaza issue.”

As I mentioned here last week, Erdogan and senior AKP officials felt the government’s Gaza and much broader Israel-Palestine policy was poorly conveyed to the public, and was among a series of factors that led to their local elections defeat.

This is why Erdogan decided to publicly meet Hamas leaders and impose trade restrictions on Israel days after the vote, possibly in an attempt to placate his voter base.


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Division within the Turkish government

As far as I understand, there were two divergent views within the government regarding the visit.

First, supporters of the visit argued that Erdogan could have raised concerns over US policy regarding Gaza face-to-face with Biden, whilst the trip could have solidified bilateral relations and increased Western investor outlook in Turkey.

The opposing side, however, believed that the optics of Erdogan’s visit would have irrevocably damaged his reputation given Washington is still arming Israel. Additionally, there are no major deals to announce and the Turkish president will be in Washington this July for the annual Nato summit.

Personally, I think had the visit gone ahead it would have allowed Erdogan to better engage with Biden over the war on Gaza. Virtue signalling doesn’t help the people of Gaza or the Palestinian cause in general. It also gives the false impression that Turkey continues to be an unreliable partner despite good relations between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

But since the visit has now been “postponed”, what course of action does Erdogan take next?

I don’t expect any major rupture in ties between now and the Nato summit in July, but Erdogan will likely deepen his criticism of Washington.

When he decided to cancel the trip, he surprisingly reprimanded the Biden administration.

He said the US should maintain neutral in the Israel-Palestinian conflict and condemned the decision to veto Palestine’s membership to the United Nations.

“We do not accept this decision, which causes further pampering of Israel. The American administration does not contribute to the solution with the unconditional military and diplomatic support it gives to Israel, and it causes the problem to grow even further, while 35,000 people are brutally murdered in Gaza.”

The approval of the military aid package is the clearest indication of this.


Worth mentioning

  • Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu told CNN on Sunday that Hamas should be declared a terrorist group due to its attacks on Israel on 7 October. However, he added that he doesn’t approve of oppressive policies against the Palestinian people and women and child deaths in Gaza. Read it here.
  • Turkey told fellow Nato members on Monday that it supports outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's bid to be the next Nato chief. Ankara expects Rutte to be vigilant on counter-terrorism issues as well as considering non-EU members input in the alliance. Read it here.
  • On Monday, Erdogan met his nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli for the first time following the elections to talk about Erdogan’s meeting with main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, whose CHP emerged as the largest political party in the 31 March vote. Sources indicate that Bahceli demanded that discussions with Ozel regarding a new constitution should not entertain proposals to modify the electoral framework, specifically changing from a majority system, where a candidate must secure more than half of the votes to win, to a plurality system, in which the candidate with the most votes wins, regardless of whether they achieve an absolute majority.


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Dominic Mokgakala

CEO - Africa Ascension Investment Inc. | COO - Africa Music Week | COO-Visions Through Our Eyes Driving Social Impact & Operational Excellence

9mo

As much as we would hope a face to face bilateral discussion would become, the fact remains that no one would change Binden's or the American establishment's stance on Israel. Except for the popular uprising within the country. President Erdoganis no fool to realise the optics matter at home, whilst the student protests in the USA is far more damaging to the US administration, and he does not need to go down with the boat.

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