Saudi Arabia - Russia - Turkey - US
Al-Monitor: Saudi crown prince balances Turkey visit with stops in Greece and Cyprus
Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to visit Turkey as part of a regional tour shows that the kingdom has no intention to upset Greece and Cyprus while mending fences with Turkey.
A forthcoming visit by the Saudi crown prince could have made Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan all smiles — had he not added Greece and Cyprus to his tour. At a time of resurging tensions between Turkey and Greece, the prince’s itinerary comes as a message that Saudi Arabia has no intention to upset its friends while mending fences with Turkey.
The planned tour of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely referred to as MbS, will take him also to Egypt and Jordan, with the exact schedule still under discussion, according to Reuters. The trip could happen as soon as early June, two sources told the agency.
Riyadh’s perception of a growing Iranian threat, its stumbles in the Yemen war and US policy shifts could all be reasons for rapprochement with Turkey. The notion of a Sunni axis against Iran in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon is also drawing Riyadh and Ankara closer despite their collaboration with different local actors on the ground. Ankara and Tehran have clashed over an array of issues in recent months, including the formation of the new Iraqi government, the prospective export route of Kurdish gas, Turkey’s pursuit of Kurdish militants on Iraqi Kurdistan territory and threats to intervene also in Sinjar, the sharing of transboundary waters and the specter of a fresh Turkish military operation in Syria.
Erdogan may have further motives to make up with MbS, whom he had sought to discredit internationally over the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. For many observers, his quest to ease Turkey’s financial crisis is the most pressing reason.
Furthermore, peace with the Saudis could ease Turkey’s regional troubles to some extent. Ankara would face obstacles in various Arab countries as long as it bickers with Riyadh. Saudi Arabia can influence those relationships, negatively or positively, thanks to decades of handing out financial aid and claiming the leadership of the Muslim world. Turkey has faced such Saudi influence across the region, including in Egypt, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Tunisia.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have stood by the quartet of Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which has isolated Turkey in the energy rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean, though the two Gulf nations are not directly involved in the issue. A major objective of Turkey’s drive to normalize ties with Egypt, Israel and the Gulf heavyweights is to tip the equilibrium in the Eastern Mediterranean to its favor, which is keeping Greece alert against losing its Arab friends.
The crown prince’s plan to visit Turkey follows Erdogan’s fence-mending trip to the kingdom in April. It may look like a return visit, yet the inclusion of Greece and Cyprus to the same tour might dampen the mood in Ankara, given Turkey’s hopes of making gains against its two historic rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Saudis have had no direct role in the disputes, but their display of solidarity with Greece and Cyprus has irked Ankara. In March 2021, Saudi Arabia sent warplanes to Greece as part of joint military drills, making it clear whose side it takes in the disputes. The following month, Athens agreed to lend a Patriot air defense system to Riyadh to help protect Saudi infrastructure against missile attacks from Yemen.
The tour of the crown prince is remarkable also for its timing, coming amid rising Turkish-Greek tensions. Last week, Erdogan said he had “written off” Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for lobbying against Turkey in the US Congress. The Greek Cypriots, meanwhile, launched gas exploration in an area overlapping with the economic zone that Ankara claims.
Erdogan’s warm embrace of MbS was the highlight of his trip to Saudi Arabia, but he returned without signing any agreements. What MbS’ visit to Turkey could yield remains unclear. Ankara has been unusually tight-lipped about the visit since Reuters broke the news on May 23. A Turkish official quoted by Reuters was laconic, listing the topics of discussion as “bilateral trade, regional development, a possible [currency] swap deal and other investment and energy projects.”
The Saudis – hit repeatedly at home by the Yemeni Houthis -- are reportedly interested in purchasing the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones.
Turkey’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia follows its reconciliation with the UAE, which happened rather fast but has yet to produce the significant strides that Ankara expects in terms of trade and investments. Ankara has floated rail and land road projects to connect Turkey and the Gulf via Iraq. Its discussions with the Emirates have focused on investment opportunities in various sectors, from renewable energy to healthcare. The two sides aim to seal a comprehensive free trade agreement by the end of the year.
Progress with the Saudis might take longer. Bilateral ties were badly damaged over the Khashoggi affair, which tarnished the reformist and progressive image that MbS was trying to project to the world, with Ankara sharing the details of the gruesome murder with the CIA. Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiadis played significant roles in breaking the diplomatic isolation of the crown prince.
MbS’ upcoming tour coincides also with a US quest to mend ties with Saudi Arabia and convince it to increase oil production to offset the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices. Thus, MbS has a stronger hand vis-à-vis Ankara now, since the chill between Riyadh and Washington helped promote the Saudis’ rapprochement with Turkey.
And by combining his trip to Turkey with visits to Greece and Cyprus, the crown prince highlights his intent to preserve Riyadh’s ties with the two countries. Egypt did the same after launching reconciliation talks with Turkey last year, showing commitment to its ties with Greece and the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, a regional body excluding Turkey. Any expectation to the opposite would have been unrealistic in the first place. Turkey erred in this context during the showdown in the Gulf in 2017, openly taking Qatar’s side and antagonizing the Gulf heavyweights.
Erdogan hopes Turkey could become a route for alternative gas supplies to the European Union, which needs an alternative to Russian gas. Boosted by Washington’s decision to rescind support for EastMed, a pipeline project to carry Israeli gas to Europe via Cyprus and Greece, he hopes to strike deals with Israel and Egypt before too long. The EU, however, is already working on a deal to import Israeli gas via Egypt, under which Israeli supplies would be liquefied in Egypt before being shipped to Europe.
In sum, the equilibrium in the Eastern Mediterranean is unlikely to easily change to Turkey’s favor in the short run, even if Turkey’s ties with Egypt, Israel and the Gulf continue to improve. And the foreign investments that Erdogan wants to ease Turkey’s economic turmoil ahead of elections next year might not come at the desired pace and scale. With many obstacles, his hopes could be largely reduced to wishful thinking.
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A-Arabiya: Russia urges Turkey to ‘refrain from actions’ which could escalate tensions in Syria
Russia urged Turkey to “refrain” from launching an offensive operation in Northern Syria to avoid “provoking an additional escalation of tensions” in the country, after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced launching a military campaign targeting Kurdish “terrorists”.
“We received with alarm reports of such a forceful operation. Such a step, in the absence of the consent of the legitimate government of Syria, would constitute a direct violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and would provoke an additional escalation of tension in this country,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.
She added: “We hope that Ankara will refrain from actions that could lead to a dangerous deterioration of the already difficult situation in Syria.”
Erdogan had announced that Turkey will launch a cross-border operation against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) – an outlawed Kurdish group which has led an insurgency against Turkey and created a conflict that has killed tens of thousands.
However, the YPG forms the core of the US-led forces in the fight against the extremist ISIS group.
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The Hill: Biden lays groundwork for risky meeting with Saudis
President Biden and his officials are laying the groundwork for a high-profile meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reversing course on the campaign promise to isolate the powerful Gulf leader.
Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are at a high over a range of issues, from the Saudi government’s repression of opposition and its role in the killing of a Washington Post opinion journalist, to Riyadh’s actions in the war in Yemen.
Families of victims of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks are also deeply suspicious of the Saudi government and have sought to bring lawsuits against Riyadh.
A source familiar with the potential meeting confirmed to the Hill that discussions are taking place but that it is still in the planning stages. The Washington Post and Associated Press earlier reported on the deliberations in the White House.
The administration views U.S. ties with Saudi Arabia as a practical necessity rather than reflecting shared values and principles. But lawmakers and groups critical of the nation’s human rights record and its disregard for civil liberties and freedoms are likely to voice opposition.
The meeting would largely be focused on convincing Riyadh to release more oil on the market and bring down gas prices that are at sky-high rates, said Samantha Gross, a fellow and director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution.
“I’m certain that President Biden will ask MBS to increase oil production faster than the OPEC group has been,” she wrote in an email to The Hill, referring to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, where Saudi Arabia is considered a de-facto leader.
The president could come face-to-face with Prince Mohammed, or MBS, at the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting expected to be held in Riyadh later this month, and that is likely to dovetail with an expected visit by Biden to Israel.
The meeting will send a significant signal that the U.S. acknowledges Prince Mohammed’s role as the powerful, day-to-day leader of Saudi Arabia, and the official successor to his father, the 86-year-old King Salman.
The Saudi government has sent signals it could make some level of accommodation on oil prices.
OPEC+, the larger grouping of OPEC, announced Thursday it would increase petroleum exports by 50 percent for July and August, part of efforts to offset Russian output losses as the European Union looks to ban Moscow’s oil imports to the continent.
The move signals Saudi Arabia’s shifting position as the Biden administration has rallied nations to impose costs on the Kremlin over its war in Ukraine. It would go against agreements between Riyadh and Moscow, which is a member of the OPEC+ group.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud in Riyadh on Monday, during a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Lavrov reportedly expressed gratitude for Gulf nations holding back from joining U.S.-led sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The potential Biden-MBS summit has already received pushback from September 11 families who say Riyadh must be held accountable for the role Saudi officials allegedly played in the attacks.
Pro-democracy activists are also likely to raise opposition to the meeting, in particular since the Biden administration withheld sanctions on the crown prince over the killing in 2018 of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi, despite U.S. intelligence agencies determining Prince Mohammed authorized a plan to “capture or kill” the opposition writer.
Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, the organization founded by Khashoggi, criticized the Biden administration for “kowtowing to a murderous dictator.”
“Biden’s global priorities of defeating authoritarianism and upholding the rule of law — in Ukraine and elsewhere — will be undermined by Biden’s unprincipled, unstrategic approach,” she told The Hill.
Biden is also likely to face pressure from other human rights groups and Democrats who want the U.S. to end all military support to Riyadh over their record of civilians killed by Saudi bombs in Yemen’s civil war.
A bipartisan group of 50 House members on Wednesday introduced a war powers resolution to end unauthorized U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s offensive airstrikes in Yemen. A companion bill is expected to be introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) next week.
Still, congressional criticism may be dialed down given competing domestic crises — such as rising inflation, exorbitant gas prices and unrelated issues like abortion rights, gun violence and the baby formula shortage. The administration also has delivered on establishing a fragile cease-fire in Yemen.
Lawmakers are also likely to recognize the key role Saudi Arabia plays as a security partner in the region and the need to maintain ties with Riyadh as a counter to overtures by Russia and China.
Saudi Arabia also has deepening relations with Israel and is a counter to Iran.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told The Hill last month that he has concerns over a meeting between Biden and Prince Mohammed.
“[MBS] He is [a powerful leader], but he also has a past that we need to recognize. I have concerns, but I’d want to hear the reasons that [Biden] might meet with him, if he is.”
Administration officials, without confirming the upcoming meeting, say they have succeeded in “recalibrating” the relationship between Washington and Riyadh by putting U.S. interests — on regional security, humanitarian assistance in war zones, and promotion of ties with Israel — front and center.
“Saudi Arabia is a critical partner to us in dealing with extremism in the region, in dealing with the challenges posed by Iran and also, I hope, in continuing the process of building relationships with Israel and its neighbors, both near and further away, through the continuation, expansion of the Abraham Accords,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday, referring to the Trump-era normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Simon Henderson, director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, said that there’s little common ground on both a personal and professional level between Biden and the Crown Prince but that global realities are pushing them together.
“The Saudis, or one should say MBS, is furious that Biden ignores him. And Biden just doesn’t like him — perhaps for good reason,” Henderson said. “He’s just not Biden’s sort of character, which is what’s gone on with the relationship so far. But with Ukraine, and Russia’s action there, means this sort of distancing no longer works.”
Biden lays groundwork for risky meeting with Saudis | The Hill
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WSJ: OPEC and Russia-Led Group Agree to Increase Oil Production
The partners known as OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected oil-production increase of 648,000 barrels a day in July and August
OPEC and its allies agreed Thursday to a bigger-than-expected oil-production increase, OPEC delegates said, allowing Saudi Arabia to potentially pump more crude and paving the way for a potential deal with the U.S.
The move represents a shift for the Saudis, who lead the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and have resisted calls from the U.S., U.K. and other Western countries to pump more oil to help reduce a price boom resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision comes after a flurry of diplomacy between Washington and Riyadh, with senior U.S. officials traveling to Saudi Arabia in recent weeks to broker a deal, officials familiar with the discussions said.
At a meeting Thursday between OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia, the group agreed to raise output by 648,000 barrels a day in July and in August, OPEC delegates said. Until now, the OPEC coalition, called OPEC+, had been dedicated to a series of monthly output increases of about 400,000 barrels a day that have done nothing to stop oil prices from surging above $100 a barrel since the Feb. 24 invasion.
The OPEC+ decision came days after the European Union agreed to impose a partial ban on Russian oil purchases, adding to Western sanctions that have helped push Russian crude production down by 700,000 barrels a day in the past two months. While Russian exports have held up over that time, some OPEC officials believe it will be difficult for Russia to keep pumping at the same level after the EU move.
Video: EU Leaders Pledge
Russia is one of the world’s three largest oil producers, along with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Before the invasion, it pumped 11.3 million barrels a day, about 11% of global supplies.
According to the Persian Gulf officials familiar with the discussions, the Saudis would consider increasing their oil output more than planned if Russian output continues to decline. Their decision would also depend on President Biden’s potential visit to the Middle East at the end of this month, which could include his first meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the officials said.
Saudi Arabia and another major Gulf OPEC producer, the United Arab Emirates, say they want Washington to beef up their security after a string of attacks by Yemeni rebels and threats by Iran.
It couldn’t be determined whether OPEC+ will make a decision on a new production plan for Saudi Arabia on Thursday, or whether it will stick to its current plan until the Russian production picture becomes clearer.
OPEC delegates said any extra Saudi increases would have to be agreed to collectively. They said OPEC+ could suspend Russia’s obligations to pump more oil or meet the output targets agreed to under the current collective plan, an exemption that is also extended to countries like Iran and Libya, where there are production disruptions.
Increasing Saudi oil production has been a central element in talks about a possible visit by Mr. Biden to Saudi Arabia, where he would meet Prince Mohammed for the first time.
Late last month, two senior Biden administration officials—White House adviser Brett McGurk and State Department energy envoy Amos Hochstein —flew to Saudi Arabia to try to hammer out a series of agreements to help repair strained relations between the two countries. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the crown prince’s younger brother who serves as deputy defense minister, also flew to Washington to discuss the issues.
Relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been strained since Mr. Biden took office with a vow to treat Saudi Arabia and its young crown prince as pariahs because of their unpopular war in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi forces and the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by a Saudi hit team that U.S. intelligence officials concluded was sent by Prince Mohammed. The crown prince has denied involvement in Mr. Khashoggi’s killing but said he bears ultimate responsibility as the kingdom’s leader.
Mr. McGurk and other White House officials have been trying to broker a rapprochement between Mr. Biden and Prince Mohammed so that the two could meet later this month in Saudi Arabia. But the talks have yet to produce an agreement that satisfies leaders in both nations, according to people involved in the talks.
Russia has rushed to keep alive an oil alliance that it struck in 2016 with the Saudis and OPEC. The resulting OPEC+ coalition controls over half the world’s oil production, giving Moscow sway over crude prices.
In the days before the Ukraine invasion and since, Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken multiple times with Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s de facto leader, each time releasing a statement lauding the importance of OPEC+.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Riyadh this week and met with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, calling OPEC+ “important and relevant.” His remarks followed a report in The Wall Street Journal that OPEC+ was considering exempting Russia from its output targets as its production waned.
That last OPEC+ agreement was struck in May 2021, with the group deciding to increase its output by about 432,000 barrels a day each month for a year, gradually bringing their output back to prepandemic levels. The group cut output in 2020 when global demand fell during the initial economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic.
Under the OPEC+ deal, Moscow is supposed to increase its output by 114,000 barrels a day. But its output is now expected to fall by about 8% this year.
Whatever OPEC does, it is set to keep Moscow as an ally, looking ahead to a day when its production could come back, officials said.
OPEC and Russia-Led Group Agree to Increase Oil Production - WSJ
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DefenseNews: How Sweden and Finland could reshape NATO’s northern security
By Joe Gould
LONDON ― America’s top general, Gen. Mark Milley, and senior Swedish officials will open a major multinational exercise from Stockholm this Saturday as the Baltic Sea takes on a pivotal role in NATO’s northern defense calculus.
With Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership, which is still pending, the famously shallow body of water would essentially become a sea surrounded almost exclusively by alliance countries, with Russia maintaining its access through naval sites in Kaliningrad in the south and the St. Petersburg region at the far eastern end.
To send a signal to Russia of allied resolve, Sweden’s Defense Ministry wants a more robust NATO presence on the Baltic Sea, with naval vessels, and by air, through the sort of exercise kicking off June 5.
Sweden will host the annual large-scale BALTOPS exercise for the first time in its 50-year history. To show off amphibious, anti-submarine, gunnery and air-defense operations, 14 NATO allies, plus Sweden and Finland, will bring 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft, and about 7,000 personnel, according to the alliance.
Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is slated to leave at the end of the week for Finland and Sweden as part of the next leg in his Europe trip. The four-star general said his meetings with senior officials there will be “symbolic of the support that the United States has for both these countries and the support that we have for their application to join NATO.”
All NATO members must approve the two Nordic nations’ bids to join the alliance, which were propelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has said it won’t allow their accession unless certain steps are taken, but NATO leaders are looking to the NATO summit in Spain in late June as the chance for the historic expansion.
The accession of Finland and Sweden, historically neutral nations, is expected to transform Europe’s security landscape for years to come. Their armed forces and geography would seriously complicate any further aggression Russia might want to try in the region, defense officials and national security experts say.
Sweden has “an incredible navy” with an air arm and ships like the Visby-class corvette that specialize in antisubmarine warfare and mine countermeasures, said retired Adm. James Foggo, the former commander of U.S. naval forces in Europe.
“They’re fast and made to fight in the fjords. The Scandinavians do that really well,” Foggo, now dean of the Navy League’s Center for Maritime Strategy, said of the distinctive-looking Visby class.
Growing ties
Finland and Sweden, despite their nonaligned status, participate in NATO’s planning and review process and have interoperability and cyber-defense arrangements with NATO. The U.S. signed bilateral defense cooperation agreements with both Sweden and Finland in 2016 and a threeway statement on boosting defense cooperation further in 2018.
In 2018, weeks after Russia staged Vostok, then its largest military exercise since the Soviet era, NATO conducted its massive Trident Juncture 18 exercise in Norway. Run by then-admiral Foggo, it included 50,000 troops and 70 ships from every NATO country, plus Finland and Sweden ― who hosted aircraft deployments and made their airspace available for operations.
“After Trident Juncture, I was convinced that Sweden and Finland do not need to be reformed in any way, shape or form. They can join tomorrow and be plug-and-play, just like they’d always been members of the alliance,” Foggo said.
Foto Stoltenberg Sweden
Sweden’s Gotland, a strategically important Baltic Sea island, sits roughly 100 miles from Stockholm, but 200 miles from Kaliningrad, the headquarters of Russia’s Baltic Sea fleet, and 400 miles from Leningrad Naval Base in St. Petersburg.
Concerned about Russian encroachment in their waters, Sweden has reconstituted three heavy land brigades and returned a medium-range, surface-to-air missile system to the island in 2021. It again beefed up its presence there earlier this year in response to some Russian naval moves.
Along with the advantages offered by Sweden’s naval forces and Baltic Sea ports, Gotland has been made into “an unsinkable aircraft carrier,” U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, said at his Senate hearing last week to become NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe.
Sweden has acquired the Patriot long-range air-defense system and plans to double its defense budget, while Finland recently ordered 64 F-35 aircraft in a deal worth $10 billion. Finnish forces, Cavoli said, are “well-equipped, very well-trained, very quickly expandable, exercised very frequently, and absolutely expert in defending” its 800-mile border with Russia.
Their accession, Cavoli said, would create “almost geometric dilemmas” for Russia.
Baltic effects
Finland remembers its Winter War of 1939-1940, where the Soviet Union suffered heavy losses, and it’s since designed its defenses against Russia.
“They’re fully confident in their ability to defend against Russia alone, much less if you add in NATO [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], airstrikes, [special operations],” said William Alberque, a former NATO official now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Where it’s been feared that Russia might attempt to seize territory from its Baltic neighbors, Finland’s accession means Russia’s “scope for adventurism in the Baltics goes to zero,” Alberque said.
“From Russia’s point of view, Finland joining NATO is a ... disaster,” Alberque said. “There’s no credible scenario where they could do even a limited attack without the Finns rendering the entire Baltic fleet into involuntary submarines and the entire Russian air force in that area getting shot at from every direction.”
Russia’s Kola Peninsula, where its nuclear submarines and Arctic navy are headquartered, borders Finland to the west. That means it would suddenly become vulnerable to NATO, as would St. Petersburg.
“Right now the Russians have a lot of force up there facing the Norwegians, but that force planning just goes out the window because Finland can now sever the main link to the Kola Peninsula with a strike east,” Alberque said.
How Russia could credibly mass forces in the region after Sweden and Finland join NATO would be an open question. There’s speculation Russia could respond by giving up on the northeast, by depleting its conventional forces there and consolidating them in regions of greater concern for Moscow, like the Caucasus, and its Ukraine fight.
“I think they’re going go back to the old Soviet-style ghost units, with lots of equipment and a couple of generals but no troops, and they’re going to bolster their nuclear posture,” Alberque said.
Visiting Washington last week, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto stressed that Finland would be “a net contributor of security to NATO” in the Baltic Sea region alongside Sweden. Finland contributes roughly 2 percent of its economy to defense, while Sweden has a “very strong submarine fleet,” he said.
“We are not consuming resources; we are bringing resources,” he said.
Amid debate in Finland over whether to seek a permanent NATO base, Haavisto said Finland would maintain its spending and “take care of our own security.” It would participate in NATO air patrols of the region, exercises, and other partnerships with Baltic states.
Still, while there’s been no uptick in Russian cyber activity against Finland, violations of Finnish airspace or activity along its border with Russia, Finland could use some interim allied “capability to react rapidly,” the foreign minister said. While NATO officials are confident Turkey’s opposition will be resolved, how long it will take is unclear, and both Finland and Sweden have been seeking security assurances for the meantime.
“Of course, we were looking: What are the possible risks? And of course, traditional military risks, violation of sea areas, violation of airspace, or cyber threats, hybrid threats. We are very security-oriented people in Finland,” Haavisto said, adding: “There are some negative scenarios in which you cannot cope alone.”
Swedish fighters escorted a U.S. B-52 Stratofortress from NATO’s Bomber Task Force over Swedish airspace in February. Ships with NATO maritime groups last month practiced mine countermeasures and anti-submarine warfare with their Swedish counterparts, while NATO aircraft did the same in an air policing exercise.
Swedish officials are asking the U.S. to boost the frequency or size of such activities on an interim basis. The thinking goes that stepped up naval exercises would offer U.S. forces experience operating in confined waters, as Swedish and Finnish forces do, and would send a signal that American and other NATO assets can quickly be diverted to the Baltic Sea.
“We’re looking at all options,” said one Swedish official, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “We can do an increase in frequency, we can boost the already planned exercises, or presence of various kinds. There’s presence of ships, the air domain or visits to talk on the policy level.”
About Joe Gould
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AlArabiya: Chad declares ‘food emergency,’ urges international help
Chad on Thursday declared a “food emergency” in the impoverished landlocked country, urging the international community to help.
The plea for aid comes before a meeting Friday between the head of the African Union and Russia’s president to discuss grain supplies in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Following the constant deterioration of the food and nutritional situation this year and taking into account the growing risk to populations if no humanitarian aid... is provided, this decree declares a food emergency,” read the document signed by the head of the military junta ruling the country.
“The government calls on all national actors and international partners to help the populations,” the decree said.
The United Nations has warned that 5.5 million people in Chad – more than a third of the population – would need humanitarian assistance this year.
The World Food Program in March estimated that 2.1 million Chadians would be “severely food insecure” during the lean season starting in June.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions on Moscow have disrupted deliveries of wheat and other commodities from the two countries, fueling concerns about the risk of hunger around the world.
Around 30 percent of the world’s wheat supply comes from Ukraine and Russia.
Food prices in Africa have already exceeded those in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab springs and the 2008 food riots.
On Friday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will receive Senegalese President Macky Sall, who chairs the African Union, to discuss “freeing up stocks of cereals and fertilizers, the blockage of which particularly affects African countries,” Sall’s office has said.
Chad is the planet’s third poorest nation, the United Nations says.
In 2021, it ranked 113 out of 116 nations on the “Global Hunger Index” – a peer-reviewed tool compiled by European NGOs.
A junta led by General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno has ruled Chad since last year, after his father, long-serving strongman Idriss Deby Itno, died in battle.
Chad declares ‘food emergency,’ urges international help | Al Arabiya English
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Al-Arabiya: Egypt stands to receive $600 mln in wheat import, silo funding from World Bank, EU
Egypt stands to access more than $600 million from the World Bank and the European Union to improve its wheat silo system and support government wheat purchases as it struggles with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Under a food security program pending approval by the World Bank board, Egypt would receive $380 million to help its state grains buyer import up to 700,000 tonnes of wheat for its bread subsidy program, a World Bank document showed.
An additional $117.5 million would be allocated for increasing silo capacity, financing development of high-yield wheat varieties and improving climate resilience.
Separately, the European Commission has mobilized 75 million euros ($80.24 million) for the expansion of Egypt’s wheat storage capacity, and 25 million euros ($26.75 million) for small and medium enterprises in the agriculture sector, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi said late on Wednesday, following a visit to Cairo.
That funding is part of a previously announced 225 million ($240.71 million) euro food security support package to Middle Eastern and North African nations impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has left Egypt, which provides steeply subsidized bread to more than 70 million people, facing sharply higher import costs. Russia and Ukraine have been the main suppliers of wheat to Egypt, one of the world’s largest importers.
Last week, Egypt’s supply ministry said the Saudi Arabia-based International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) had doubled its credit limit to Egypt to $6 billion to help it import wheat.
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A well put together selection of articles that examines a sensing of a major portion of the "geopolitical stew" in progress and its "Byzantine" layering. We do seem to have emerged into an era that has, perhaps, greater global security challenges then we have seen in our lifetimes (some of us reach back in the US case to the Truman Administration) and in which almost all aspects of the societal constructs of competing or attempting to exist polities have assumed weaponized aspects internally and externally. One phenomenon in this dynamic that seems to be expanding is the proliferation of the number of rings in the "circus" now well beyond three. One might argue that the "entertainment" quotient is past saturation, especially given the life and death realities for too many people around the world as these developments play out. So the question begs, what effective leadership is emerging to tamp down the activity to more satisfactory levels and restore those who suffer its worst effects to more acceptable levels of existence?