Does Netanyahu feel the pressure in Gaza cease-fire talks?
The Israeli prime minister sees time on his side; Iran seeks face-saving off-ramp from broader conflict.
- Andrew Parasiliti in the Week in Review
As this column goes to press, there are reports of progress in Gaza cease-fire talks as they concluded on Friday after two days of meetings in Doha. Negotiations are expected to resume next week with a "bridging proposal" on the table.
The mediators include CIA Director Bill Burns and White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk for the United States, along with the host and prime minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egyptian General Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel. Israel Mossad Director David Barnea attended as a negotiator along with two other Israeli officials.
The talks have been billed as perhaps the last chance to reach a deal to stave off threatened retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah for Israel killing Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr on July 30 in an airstrike in Beirut and for the assassination of Hamas political bureau Chairman Ismael Haniyeh the next day in Tehran, reportedly with a bomb planted in his guest quarters while in the capital for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The killing of Haniyeh makes the already complicated diplomacy with Hamas that much harder, as ultimate decisions by the organization require a nod from Yahya Sinwar, who is at an undisclosed, underground location in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Iran is looking for a face-saving way out of the situation, linking its possible restraint to a Gaza cease-fire. Check out this carefully worded statement from Aug. 9, first obtained by Al-Monitor’s Elizabeth Hagedorn from Iran’s Mission to the United Nations:
“Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognized by us. The Israeli regime has violated our national security and sovereignty through its recent act of terrorism. We have the legitimate right to self-defense — a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire. However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
Iran is in knots over what to do next. Pezeshkian’s new government is getting swamped by calls from mediators advising him to stand down. Qatar is key here. While Iran enjoys being the center of global diplomacy, this is not the welcome that the reformist Pezeshkian had hoped for after his upset election victory. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps ultimately hold sway in national security matters, the moment appears to be overwhelming Pezeshkian, who wants an off-ramp.
Former Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian's de facto running mate in the election, resigned just days after being appointed as a presidential adviser. Iran can't let up on its claim as the leader of the so-called axis of resistance, but it also can't help but notice the massive US firepower on display in the Gulf as the risk of escalation has grown.
That brings us to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He holds all the cards once again. The United States, its European Union allies and regional partners are all pushing for a cease-fire. Iran, and by extension Hamas and Hezbollah, have signaled that a cease-fire could settle a region on the brink of war.
Netanyahu can’t help but feel vindicated for holding off against earlier pressure to conclude a cease-fire deal. Biden has been frustrated and “very direct” with Netanyahu over not finalizing a cease-fire agreement, which was reportedly Israel’s own, back in May. US pressure for a cease-fire continued during Netanyahu’s Washington visit in late July. So much for that. One week later, Israel ramped up military operations in Gaza, where more than 40,000 Palestinians have now been killed, and assassinated Shukur and Haniyeh, bringing the region to the brink of a wider conflict.
In yet another “very direct” phone call, on Aug. 1, Biden reportedly told Bibi to “stop bullshitting me” about a cease-fire. Netanyahu can take that — especially since the headline of the call, according to the White House readout, was that the Biden administration had “reaffirmed” its commitment to Israel’s security and defense against Iran and its proxies. The United States has ramped up its naval power in the region in recent weeks.
Here’s where we come to choice. Netanyahu has so far weathered US-led “pressure” for a cease-fire into a possible broader and better deal, if one can be hammered out in Doha. His tough diplomacy is now backed by even more US resolve and firepower in the event that Iran and Hezbollah up the ante beyond what could be a highly choreographed response, as we saw in April, if in the end there is a response at all.
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With the United States having his back, Netanyahu can weigh his options. The hard-liners in Israel’s coalition government, on which Netanyahu depends for his political survival and from where the real pressure comes, have suggested possible preemptive action against Hezbollah, provoking yet another public skirmish this week between Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who opposes an operation in Lebanon.
Netanyahu, like all regional leaders, is also factoring in the upcoming US presidential elections. He would prefer US President Donald Trump, but could end up with Vice President Kamala Harris. He may be playing for time.
Ben Caspit writes, “Judging by the conditions Netanyahu set for a deal with Hamas, his statements on continuing the war to defeat it, and his taking the time to send a delegation to Qatar, it appears the Israeli premier plans to drag out the negotiations in Doha as long as possible, in part by introducing new obstacles undermining a deal to end the war in Gaza.”
If there is a deal in Doha, and a conflict averted, deserved credit goes to the Biden administration and its regional partners, including Qatar and Egypt, for such sustained, intensive diplomacy. And however it plays out, deal or no deal, Netanyahu will also claim a win on his terms.
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Very pleased to welcome Jennifer Gnana, who joins Al-Monitor as our Gulf correspondent based in Dubai. Jennifer comes to Al-Monitor from S&P Global Platts, where she was Saudi correspondent. Prior to that she was energy reporter for MEED and worked at The National. Welcome Jennifer!
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