Is the Drive for Economic Decarbonization a Utopian Dream?

Decoupling our global economy's dependence on fossil fuels will require a complete transformation of our global energy systems, key industries, and everyday lifestyle choices. This level of change embraces utopianism on a scale and ambition unprecedented in human history, as it requires significant belief in our collective ability to make an economic shift in individual and societal behavior in a relatively short amount of time, in an attempt to stabilize Earth ecosystems against the impacts of industrial pollution.

The technical, economic, and social challenges of decoupling our global economy dependence on fossil fuel is immense. Achieving complete decarbonization within set timeframes, for example, halving global greenhouse emissions by 2030 as recommended in the latest IPCC reports might seem unrealistic, bordering on a utopian dream, given the complexities involved. Rapid transitions tend to have unforeseen consequences, and achieving decarbonization through radical change will heighten social and economic disruptions when viewed through the lens of existing economic models.

Ultimately, we know that the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to the rise of atmospheric CO2 levels—the main driver of climate change. We also know that our entire way of life in the modern age is dependent on fossil fuels for just about everything our modern economy has to offer. So how are we going to achieve this massive transformation?

Here are some key facts to consider: at current consumption rates, it is estimated that we have roughly 47 years left of "known" oil reserves, 49 years of natural gas reserves, and approximately 139 years left of coal—that is, unless, we discover more. Current estimates suggest that if utilized, these remaining fossil fuel reserves hold enough carbon to push atmospheric CO2 levels beyond 1,000 ppm.

Considering that CO2 levels have remained in a somewhat steady state of around 285 ppm up until the Industrial Revolution, and had remained below 300ppm for at least the last 800,000 years, CO2 levels exceeding 1,000ppm will impact every aspect of life on Earth.

Based on our current understanding of Earth's past climate and atmosphere, the last time CO2 levels were as high as they are today—420ppm—was during the Pliocene Epoch, roughly 3-5 million years ago. During this period, global temperatures were roughly 2 to 3.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, and sea levels were significantly higher than they are today.

The high CO2 concentrations during the Pliocene Epoch were likely driven by a combination of factors, including natural volcanic activity and changes in Earth's orbital cycles.

While humans weren't around to witness the Pliocene firsthand, fossil evidence provides a vivid picture of a planet teeming with life. Lush vegetation thrived in high CO2 concentrations, providing ample food for diverse fauna. Notably, whom many describe as our distant ancestor Australopithecus afarensis (Lucy) walked the Earth in East Africa.

It is important to note here that the current rise of CO2 levels due to industrial activities is one the fastest increases of atmospheric CO2 levels ever experienced in Earth history.

The science of climate change adaptation and mitigation presents us with one of the greatest challenges ever embraced by human ingenuity. The easy part of the last 170 years of economic growth was driven by the extraction and utilization of fossil fuels and the dismantling of ecosystems for the natural resources they offered our growing economy.

The choices and actions we take today will help to shape the future for generations to come. While immense challenges exist, cultivating shared purpose, focusing on solutions, and uniting the global community around collaboration has the potential to make decarbonization a reality, not just a utopian dream.

At the end of the day, the question of whether our decarbonization goals are based on utopian thought depends on our collective ability to face these challenges, adapt, and work together for a the implementation of the next great Industrial Revolution—a global circular economy.

Regenerating Earth ecosystems to a pre-industrial balance will be the greatest challenge and achievement of 21st century circular economics.

Let our current reality speak for itself—climate change poses an existential threat to the current stage of life on Earth, making decarbonization a necessity for our long term survival. The alternative, inaction, carries far greater risks of a truly dystopian future—the sixth-mass extinction.