El Niño Response, May Update

El Niño impacts continue to wreak havoc, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa, even as we are quickly heading towards neutral conditions. There is now a 69% chance of a transition to La Niña by July-September, and 85% by the end of the year. Scientists and disaster management professionals have already started preparing for La Niña.

In the past few weeks alone, more than one million people have been affected by floods, from Kenya to Brazil and Pakistan. Hundreds of people have lost their lives across Eastern Africa. In the meantime, South-East Asia is grappling with a widespread heatwave, and Southern Africa is facing the prospect of failed harvests because of the drought.

Nearly one million people affected by flooding in Eastern Africa

The long rainy season (March – April – May), exacerbated by climate change and El Niño, has led to deadly flooding and landslides across the East African region. More than 400 people have lost their lives in Burundi, Kenya, Ouganda, Rwanda, Somalia and Tanzania, as of 14 May.

I visited flood-affected communities in Kisumu, in Western Kenya, at the end of April and witnessed the response efforts led by the Government and partners, in particular the Kenya Red Cross.

Kenya Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Stephen Jackson, highlighted that “intensifying extreme weather events like these foods show Kenya is in the crosshairs of the climate emergency."

Over 30 million people impacted by the drought in Southern Africa

Concern is growing over the drought that is threatening food security and economic stability in Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The drought, according to a recent report, is linked to El Niño and exacerbated by deforestation. The reports also warns that intense droughts may now occur every decade because of climate change.

The UN Central Emergency Fund (CERF) released an additional $13.5 million for the region, to help with food, cash, support for irrigation systems and drought-resistant seed for planting, among others, bringing the total CERF allocations for El Niño early action and response to $62 million globally.

Southern African leaders are joining forces to respond to this regional emergency. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) is convening an emergency Heads of State meeting in a few days. Earlier this month, I joined African leaders in South Africa to discuss the need for scaled-up climate finance for the continent, under the auspices of the African Risk Capacity (ARC).

Governments are ramping up the response, but they need our support now.

Global impacts, from Afghanistan to Brazil

Extreme weather spreads in Asia

While El Niño is usually linked to wetter weather in Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries experienced a dry winter – until March. This changed in the first half of April when heavy rains caused devastating flooding, killing at least 124 people in Pakistan and 180 in Afghanistan.

The drought in Asia is persisting, with a severe heatwave affecting parts of India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Flash floods in the Arab Peninsula

In Dubai and Oman, the flash floods that occurred on 15 April and caused 24 deaths were attributed to El Niño, though scientists also highlighted that climate change played a role in increasing the risk of heavy rainfall.

Two million people impacted in Latin America

Since November 2023, heavy rains exacerbated by El Niño have led to flooding and landslides in Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, resulting in infrastructure damage, loss of livelihoods, forced displacements and casualties. In Brazil, over 2.1 million people have been severely affected in 90% of the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul.

Stories from the field

Anticipatory approach in Somalia

When in August 2023 satellite imaging forecasted flooding along the Shabelle and Juba rivers in Somalia by October, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Somali Red Crescent Society decided to quickly pivot their operations to prepare for and respond to expected extreme flooding caused by El Niño. This was the first time ICRC implemented such an anticipatory approach. The intervention reached 600,000 people, protecting critical infrastructure and water points from the floods.

Protecting farmers in Malawi

In Malawi, water and land restoration projects have helped communities build resilience to climate disasters. Despite these efforts, nearly 40% of the population could be food insecure by the end of the year without urgent support as a result of El Niño-induced floods and drought.

Building resilience in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. In light of these challenges, the country has embarked on a resilience-building journey. During my visit last month, I met with women’s groups that had turned a small business project into a support initiative for their village. A community-based, bottom-up approach focused on building resilience is at the heart of the new cooperation framework signed between the UN and the Philippine Government.

Read more in the full version of our latest update.