El Niño Response, April Update

El Niño impacts are deepening across the globe, while the current episode has peaked as one of the strongest in history. Countries in Asia and the Pacific are grappling with an intense heatwave and dry conditions, including the Philippines, Timor Leste and Micronesia. In Eastern Africa, heavy rainfall may cause flooding and several countries in South America are facing heatwaves and dry conditions. Impacts on health and food security are particularly worrying.

Focus on Southern Africa

Southern Africa is currently the hotspot of El Niño impacts. Since January, the region has been experiencing high temperatures (five degrees above average) and dry conditions that have affected agricultural food production and harvests, resulting in rising food insecurity and contributed to the outbreak of communicable diseases. Other parts of the region have experienced heavy rainfall, floods and landslides.

The most severe impact of the drought is felt in the central part of the region, which has just recorded its driest February in the past 100 years, characterised by a mid-season dry spell of over 50 days. There, more than half of the crops are reported to have already failed.

While the current El Niño episode is milder than the 2015/2016 episode, it is happening in a context of warmer temperatures and pre-existing vulnerabilities exacerbated by climate shocks. At least 9 million people are affected in Malawi, 9.7 million people in Zambia, and 2.7 million people in Zimbabwe: all three countries have declared a national disaster.

In this context, it is essential to scale up the response to safeguard food and nutrition security and build resilience. Governments have responded swiftly, allocating about US$25 million in early action protocols. UN agencies and humanitarian partners supported anticipatory interventions, but the early action window of opportunity is closing quickly, and urgent funding is needed for the response.

Deepening impacts across the globe

Millions of people across 16 countries continue to suffer the impact of the ongoing El Niño event.

Dry conditions persist across much of Asia and the Pacific. The drought situation is worsening in the Philippines, with nearly 400,000 people affected in the rural areas. In the Pacific, several island states are battling with a severe drought, such as Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, about 1.3 million people were exposed to severe drought due to El Niño in 8 countries in the region between April – November 2023 (Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru and Venezuela). Food insecurity is expected to increase in Central America as we approach the lean season with a below-average harvest.

In South America, Brazil is facing record high temperatures and megafires in the Amazon. Colombia is experiencing extreme heat, forest fires and drought conditions impacting food security, with about 433,000 people affected.

Heavy rainfall has been reported in Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia. A state of emergency has been declared in Peru following severe floods and landslides. In Bolivia, after experiencing a devastating drought in 2023, the country is now facing heavy rainfall, floods and landslides, with over 50 people killed and 85,000 people affected according to the Government.

What to expect from a possible La Niña ?

There is a now 62% chance of a transition to La Niña, the cooling phase of ENSO, before the end of the Northern hemisphere summer, according to NOAA.

Areas experiencing drought under El Niño, such as Southern African and Southeast Asia, are likely at higher risk of flooding under La Niña, while other regions such as Eastern Africa may experience drought. The humanitarian impact could be significant in many countries, especially in areas hit by El Niño where coping capacities are eroded.

Five figures about gender equality and the climate crisis

• Women and girls tend to be more vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate-related disasters. For example, they accounted for 70% of deaths in the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.
• A 1° C increase in long-term global temperature is associated with a 34% greater reduction in female-headed households’ income, compared to male-headed households, according to FAO’s Unjust Climate Report.
• If women were provided with the same access to resources as men in terms of access to land, assets and credit, this could lead to a reduction of 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
• Where women have become more socially and politically empowered, carbon emissions have reduced on average by 12% over the last 30 years.
• Only 2.4% of climate finance targets gender equality (OECD).

Much more needs to be done, as I repeated again at this year's CSW. Investing in women is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity in combating the climate crisis.

Further reading

The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization predicts a slow decline of El Niño conditions, while temperatures over all oceans and land areas are expected to remain above normal.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, about 1.3 million people were exposed to El Niño-induced droughts, shows a recent analysis from World Food Programme and Action Against Hunger | ACF-USA .

The Sendai Gender Action Plan launched by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) demonstrates ongoing efforts to ensure gender responsive disaster risk reduction, through gender disaggregated data, targeted funding, participation of women in disaster risk management and much more.

Read the full monthly update.