It is the end result that counts. Really?
What is it?
I remember a recent conversation with a colleague who said she doesn’t care how her people make the numbers as long as they make their numbers. I basically like this approach a lot, as it provides quite a level of personal freedom and autonomy to her employees. But only looking at the result and ignoring everything else (like the approach, intentions, the environment, chance) can be problematic – particularly for decision makers.
Let me illustrate this thinking error, called outcome bias, with a rather curios example which really happened.
Once we visited one of our friends in her new home (to protect her identity I will call her Lisa). Together with another friend (let’s call her Anna) we went to see her. At each road crossing Anna had to make the right decision: turn left, turn right, go straight, etc. One wrong turn (i.e. one wrong decision) and we would have been totally lost. Today the navigation system or google maps will do the job for us. But back in the late 1980’s when this story took place, there was no navigation system.
To help Anna, Lisa wrote a note which went like: “When you leave the Autobahn, you turn right at the first crossing, then left, second right again”, and so on. Anna followed the instructions and safely arrived at Lisa’s home. Obviously, a perfect description of the route. And a perfect example of the outcome bias. Because Lisa did a terrible mistake: she consistently confused right with left and wrote the whole description mirrored. Had we handed this note to any other person, he or she would have gone to the North Pole or elsewhere. The only reason why the wrong description “worked” was that Anna also confused right and left consequently. And two wrongs make a right. At least here.
The outcome bias can be found in many areas in the real world. The whole sports sector is completely contaminated with it. But you can also find it in business settings, where an overemphasis on performance is creating an outcome-centric culture: many companies don’t care how their executives reach their targets as long as they do. This can lead to the promotion of the wrong people. Irresponsible, hazardous leaders who make reckless decisions. They will be rewarded if their decision results in a positive outcome – by pure chance or by others catching the falling knife and cleaning up the mess for them.
Why does it happen?
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I believe this bias simply reflects the fact that a tangible outcome has simply a dominant (direct) relevancy to us. If we die because of something that happened to us ten minutes ago, we will not care whether this happened because of a bad decision on our end or because of pure chance. We are simply dead. In other words: the result is what matters, particularly if the result is dramatic. Of course, we also want to draw conclusions from experiences (provided we still can) and try to learn from the past. But life is complicated, and this learning can be difficult and exhausting. Consequently, we often overemphasize the easy-to-understand end-result instead of trying to do proper research. Or, if we do look for reasons, we go for simple answers (like to fire the trainer of the not-performing soccer club).
How can we avoid it?
For me it is not too complicated to get over this bias. We just have to be critical about the process of any action and not only the outcome. And we must be honest: was the good result really because of our wise decision or was it simply luck? Was the decision basically a good one, even if it did not have the expected or desired result? What information was available that led us to take the decision? What did other people say and think at the time when we made the decision? And should we take this decision again in a similar situation? These questions are not meant to justify bad behavior or wrong decisions, but they can help us to draw the right conclusions and to learn the correct lessons from the past.
If you still only care for the results, fine. But then you should be consequent and stick with the results. And not try to learn anything for the future.
What’s your thinking around that?
Does this sound familiar to you? Any own experiences or stories you would like to share? Please start a conversation in the comments section!