Euro Edges Lower Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision
GBP
GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2761 (interbank), while GBP/EUR stands at 1.2116 (interbank), its highest level in over two and a half years as investors anticipate the ECB will cut rates and deliver dovish guidance on Thursday.
Yesterday, Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England, delivered a speech addressing the UK’s economic outlook and challenges.
Ramsden outlined the Bank’s strategy in managing inflationary pressures, highlighting the necessity for a balanced approach to sustain price stability while fostering economic growth. He also discussed global factors affecting the UK, including supply chain disruptions and energy prices, and stressed the need for financial stability.
This week, GBP investors will be focused on GDP data, with any signs of economic contraction potentially limiting the Pound's further gains.
No significant events are scheduled for today
EUR
EUR/USD has declined and is currently trading at 1.0528 (interbank).
This morning, German inflation remained steady at 2.4% in November, aligning with preliminary estimates, ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) final monetary policy meeting of the year on Thursday.
Ongoing political instability in France and Germany, coupled with expectations of further ECB rate cuts, could weigh on the Euro.
Traders expect the ECB to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3%, marking its third consecutive rate cut.
Today’s events (GMT):
07:00 - German CPI (Nov) – Actual: 2.2% vs Forecast: 2.2%
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USD
The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has edged higher to 106.357.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York’s latest survey indicated a surprising improvement in U.S. consumers’ financial outlook following the re-election of Donald Trump. Respondents reported more optimistic expectations for debt affordability and credit conditions but lowered their forecasts for future government borrowing.
Markets are awaiting U.S. consumer inflation data for November, due tomorrow, to gain further insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans.
The Fed has reduced rates by 75 basis points since September, with a further 25-basis-point cut anticipated at the December 17-18 meeting. Any signs of inflation stagnating above the Fed’s 2% target could prompt markets to revise their expectations.
No significant events are scheduled for today
CAD
USD/CAD has risen to 1.4166 (interbank), after reaching 1.4194, its highest level since April 2020.
The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure as markets prepare for the BoC’s monetary policy decision tomorrow, with expectations of a substantial rate cut following November’s sharp increase in unemployment.
The BoC is forecast to reduce its key interest rate by 50 basis points, lowering it to 3.25% from 3.75%.
Moreover, oil prices have dipped slightly, with Brent crude currently at $72.00 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $67.96 a barrel, as geopolitical tensions in Syria initially sparked gains.
No significant events are scheduled for today
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