Expectation merchants (Brazil)

Those with a more technical background tend to predict certain magnitudes with a more "objective" view.

Inflation, GDP, fiscal budget, and the dollar exchange rate are all part of this "perspective".

In reality, however, evaluating these parameters are greatly influenced by expectations. As the famous American psychologist Dan Ariely says, human beings are "predictably irrational".

I remember, for example, that last year, a group of economic analysts pointed to the dollar exchange rate to the Real (Brazilian currency) tending toward its "technical price" of R$4.6. It is now above R$ 6!

But the market perceives a trajectory that is putting Brazil on a path of rising inflation, "stalling" GDP, a very unbalanced fiscal budget  and as a result, the dollar exchange rate has skyrocketed.

There is a chasm between the deeply rooted optimistic expectations of our Legislative, Executive and Judiciary and the harsh reality of the facts.

Meanwhile, in the electricity sector, we continue to be mired in subsidies, , huge power theft, crony projects and gross errors (the official peak hours no longer correspond to reality) that are blatantly "ignored".

How long will we intend to "embark" on this "dead end road"?