The Fall of Assad and the Geopolitical Reconfiguration of the Middle East

The Middle East, historically marked by conflicts and power struggles, is experiencing another chapter of turbulence with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. After more than a decade of civil war, the overthrow of the Alawite regime not only reconfigures Syrian domestic politics, but also causes waves of instability that reverberate on a regional and global scale. This event marks a turning point in the region's power dynamics, generating a complex network of winners and losers on the geopolitical board. With its effects already felt at the political, military and economic levels, Assad's downfall is a clear example of how local events can profoundly influence the international order.

The Syrian Crisis in Perspective: Historical and Geopolitical Context

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 in the context of the Arab Spring, has already redrawn the country's political and military map several times. The popular uprising against Assad, initially peaceful, soon turned into an armed conflict involving a myriad of national and international actors. Assad's permanence in power was ensured over the years by the direct support of external powers, such as Russia and Iran, as well as organizations such as Hezbollah. This coalition was fundamental to maintaining the regime in the face of a multifaceted opposition, ranging from moderate rebels to extremist groups such as the Islamic State and, more recently, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

However, the global situation has changed the balance of power. The war in Ukraine, which absorbs a large part of Russian resources, and the increase in tensions between Israel and Iran have weakened the ability of Assad's allies to sustain him politically and militarily. The overthrow of the regime, driven by the alliance of rebel groups, symbolizes not only the failure of an authoritarian governance model, but also the beginning of a new cycle of uncertainty, where the power vacuum will inevitably be exploited by different actors. The Forces at Play: A Reconfigured Geopolitical Chessboard

The Losers

1. Iran and Hezbollah:

Iran emerges as one of the main losers in this scenario. Syria was a strategic link in the so-called “Arc of Resistance,” which connected Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, allowing it to deliver weapons, financing, and logistical support. Assad’s fall weakens this connection, limiting Iran’s ability to project influence in the Levant. Furthermore, the hostility expressed by the new rebel leaders toward Iran suggests that Iran will have difficulty maintaining its presence in Syria. This situation also impacts Hezbollah, whose operational strength depends largely on Iranian support through Syria.

2. Russia:

Russia, although less dependent on Syria than Iran, also suffers a significant setback. The naval and air bases in Tartus and Hmeimim were crucial to Moscow’s power projection in the Mediterranean and Africa. While HTS has signaled a willingness to allow the Russians to remain, Syria’s fragmentation and potential prolonged chaos could limit the strategic utility of these bases. Furthermore, Assad’s fall undermines Russia’s narrative of supporting authoritarian regimes as bastions of regional stability.

The Winners

1. Turkey:

Turkey has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of Assad’s fall. With a historical influence over HTS, Ankara now has the opportunity to consolidate its position in northern Syria. In addition, the new scenario could facilitate the fight against the Syrian Kurds, whom Ankara considers a threat to its territorial integrity. Turkish influence over HTS, while not absolute, represents a significant lever to shape the course of the new Syrian government.

2. Israel:

Israel also reaps strategic benefits. Assad’s fall weakens the Iran-Hezbollah axis, reducing direct threats to Israeli security. However, the emergence of new radical actors, such as HTS, presents considerable challenges. The proximity of these groups to the Golan Heights requires constant vigilance, especially in a context of territorial fragmentation where central control is virtually non-existent.

The New Syrian Order: Fragmentation and Instability

Assad’s fall by no means represents a resolution to the Syrian crisis. On the contrary, it ushers in a new period of political and territorial fragmentation. The country is currently divided between several forces: the Kurds in the northeast, HTS in the northwest, remnants of the Islamic State in isolated areas, and zones of Israeli influence in the south. This fragmentation increases the likelihood of conflict between rival groups, making any attempt at national reconstruction more difficult.

HTS’s interim leadership, while promoting a rhetoric of stability and efficient administration, faces the challenge of gaining legitimacy both domestically and internationally. Recognized as a terrorist organization by countries such as the United States and entities such as the United Nations, HTS will need to balance its ideological agenda with the need to govern a territory devastated by more than a decade of war.

Regional Impacts: A Reconfigured Middle East

Assad’s fall symbolizes a shift in the power relations between the main forces in the Middle East. For Arab countries, Assad’s departure represents a weakening of Iran, but also a security challenge. The power vacuum in Syria is fertile ground for the resurgence of extremist groups, which could destabilize neighboring regimes.

For Turkey, the new order offers both opportunities and challenges. While the increased influence over HTS strengthens Turkey’s position in the region, the Kurdish issue remains an existential threat. In addition, the proximity of radical groups to Turkey’s borders could generate additional tensions.

Global Implications: The Role of Great Powers

Globally, Assad’s fall places new pressures on powers such as the United States and the European Union. Although the US administration has expressed an interest in reducing its military involvement in the region, the continuing chaos in Syria may force Washington to reconsider its strategy. The US military presence in Jordan and support for Israel are key to containing the proliferation of extremist threats. On the other hand, Russia, increasingly absorbed by the war in Ukraine, could see its regional influence diminished, limiting its ability to project power on other fronts.

The Future of Syria and the Middle East

Assad’s fall should be seen as the end of one cycle and the beginning of another, marked by uncertainty and challenges. Syria, fragmented and unstable, will be a battlefield for political, ideological and military disputes in the coming years. The interaction between the various regional and global actors will determine whether the country finds a path to stability or whether it will continue to be an epicenter of chaos.

The Middle East, as a whole, remains a stage where local conflicts have global repercussions. Assad’s ouster is not just a Syrian event; it is a reflection of the complex power dynamics that shape the region and the world. As Syria tries to rise from the ashes, international powers and neighboring countries will have a crucial role in defining its fate. History is still being written, but one thing is certain: the Middle East, with its complexity and centrality to global affairs, will continue to be a focus of attention for all those seeking to understand the contemporary world.