Friday Risk Watch: November 17, 2023

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

U.S. Weather Hazards on the Rise During Thanksgiving Travel Period: Aside from flash flooding in Southeast Florida and wildfires near the Appalachians, national weather hazards have been relatively muted in recent weeks. That will change on Sunday as a large weather system begins to take shape across the Southern Rockies and Plains before advancing through the Eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.  

• By late Sunday, conditions may support isolated, severe thunderstorms between Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Dallas, and Austin. Wind and hail damage reports are possible. 
• Sunday night into Monday, severe thunderstorm potential will track into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Threats include heavy rain, damaging winds, hail, and potential tornadoes. With Tornado Watch issuance possible, residents should revisit their severe weather preparedness plans.
• By Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will move towards the East Coast, impacting areas including Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, and Northwest Florida. 
• Aside from severe storms across the South, the biggest corridor of travel disruption could involve the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. overnight Monday through Tuesday. Widespread heavy showers and gusty winds could cause at least moderate flight delays across the major airport hubs. Travelers should frequently check their itinerary for weather-related impacts. 
• Medium-range forecasts indicate that weather conditions will improve significantly for most areas heading into Wednesday.  
• According to AAA, approximately 55.4 million Americans are expected to travel for Thanksgiving. These numbers are 2.3% higher than in 2022 and the third highest since 2020. According to AAA research, the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are usually the busiest days for air travel.  

Significant Weather Headed for Southeast Europe and War-Torn Parts of the Middle East: Over the past week, consecutive named storms over France, Ireland, and the Southern U.K. have made international weather headlines. This weekend through Monday, significant storm activity will shift southeastward across the Balkans, Turkey, and the Middle East.   

• Beginning Friday, a potent storm system will likely move in on the Balkans, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding.  
• By Saturday, flooding rain, strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and even high-elevation snow will be possible throughout Turkey.  
• Expect significant impacts across Israel-Gaza and nearby areas of the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Saturday to Monday. High winds, rough seas, heavy rain, and dropping temperatures are likely. Significant urban flash flooding is probable in certain areas. Wet and windy conditions coupled with falling temperatures will increase risks for displaced residents amid the ongoing conflict.    
• This weekend’s Middle East storm will likely be the first of several large-scale weather events as the region enters its rainy season, which typically runs from November through March. 

Widespread Demonstrations Related to the Israel-Hamas Conflict Continue: As the conflict in the Middle East continues, activists have maintained their momentum. Today, demonstrators in North America held another day of action to “Shut it Down for Palestine,” and more gatherings are expected around the world this weekend.   

• Today, demonstrators in New York staged protests targeting organizations accused of doing business with Israel, including BNY Mellon and NewsCorp. A major march is planned to begin at 3:00 pm from Union Square North, heading to Bryant Park for a 5:00 pm rally. Organizers intend to make stops along the way at “several sites” that they view as aiding Israel’s war effort.  
• In the U.K., organizers are taking a break from mass rallies in London this weekend to call for smaller actions throughout the nation as part of a “Day of Action for Palestine” on Saturday. Over 100 demonstrations have reportedly been planned.  
• In Ireland, a national demonstration for Palestine is planned for Saturday in Dublin. Demonstrators plan to gather at the Garden of Remembrance at 1:00 pm before marching to Leinster House. Earlier this week, more than a thousand people gathered in the capital to call for the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador.  
• Israel will see its first rally calling for a ceasefire since Hamas attacked on October 7. The Tel Aviv Police Department approved a request from the Hadash Party to hold a demonstration on Saturday at 4:00 pm at Charles Clore Park. Attendance has been capped at 700 participants.  

Disruptive Demonstrations in Panama to Continue: Groups leading protests against a mining contract in Panama have called for a 24-hour nationwide blockade on Monday. 

• Demonstrations over the issue have been ongoing for weeks, and tensions recently intensified after an individual fatally shot two protesters blocking roads in Chame, a district west of Panama City. Two other demonstrators were run over and killed in October. (Please note that this link is in Spanish.)
• There was a brief reprieve from road blockades this week as demonstrators paused activity to allow citizens access to fuel and other goods; however, protests resumed shortly after. The activity has led to multiple alerts from the local U.S. embassy, including one for this coming Monday’s action. Due to the security situation, Carnival Cruise Line also recently diverted one of its ships headed to Colón.  
• The protests are significantly impacting the economy and resulting in shortages of a wide range of goods, with the Logistics Business Council of Panama estimating daily losses of 200 million dollars as ground transit faces severe disruptions. (Please note that this link is in Spanish.)

Spain to See Another Weekend of Mass Mobilizations Against Catalan Amnesty: Demonstrators continue to take to the streets in Spain in opposition to a proposed amnesty deal for people involved in the Catalan independence movement. Madrid is a hotspot for protest activity, with thousands expected to gather on Saturday for a nationwide demonstration. 

• Over 100 civic organizations are calling on supporters to gather at Madrid’s Plaza de Cibeles on Saturday to protest against Catalan amnesty. Both Vox and the People’s Party (PP) expressed support for the demonstration. (Please note that this link is in Spanish.)

• Pedro Sánchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), won a second term as prime minister on Thursday. Debates over the amnesty agreement dominated the investiture vote, which Sánchez used to gain support from Catalan separatist parties after the summer snap election left PSOE without enough parliamentary seats to form a majority government.
• Rallies will likely continue next week, especially outside PSOE offices and government buildings. Several groups are calling for permanent mobilization. Police have used force to break up previous related gatherings and detained 15 people outside the PSOE headquarters in Madrid on Wednesday. (Please note that this link is in Spanish.)

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