Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.
Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.
Please note, our next newsletter will be published in two weeks as we take a brief pause for the holidays. Wishing you a safe and happy new year!
What We’re Watching
Holiday Week U.S. Weather Roundup: While cool conditions will dominate this weekend, the Christmas holiday week will likely see above normal temperatures for much of the country as a surge of warm air is expected for the continental U.S. through the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is bracing for several atmospheric rivers.
Temperatures across the Deep South could dip into the mid-20s, with wind chills bringing a cold edge to the air. Meanwhile, a surge of cold air is expected across the Eastern U.S. Friday through Monday. During the cold snap, New England could see some snow and winter weather as a low-pressure storm pushes north along the Mid-Atlantic coast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Impacts will likely be minimal but could increase if the system moves to shore.
Eastern cold will be short-lived as temperatures quickly rebound to above average between Tuesday and Friday, December 27. Expect several daily temperature records. Parts of the Midwest including Indianapolis, IN; Columbus, OH; and Springfield, IL will likely see daytime highs in the mid-50s, well above usual. Unseasonably warm temperatures could melt snow chances for much of the country during the holidays.
The region most at risk for weather-related travel disruptions may be the Pacific Northwest, as several atmospheric rivers are poised to impact the region through the week. There will be a few lulls in precipitation between atmospheric river events, but over seven inches of rain will likely accumulate by the end of the week, with the bulk expected to fall around the holidays. Mountain snow will also likely accumulate and could prompt pass closures. Widespread flooding and flash floods are expected throughout the busy travel week, likely causing delays for those traveling for the holidays.
Windstorm to Disrupt Weekend Travel in Ireland and U.K. Ahead of Christmas: As the holiday rush builds, Ireland and the United Kingdom brace for another disruptive windstorm, bringing strong gusts and squally conditions this weekend. The U.K. Met Office and Irish Meteorological Service issued Yellow Wind Warnings across much of Ireland, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Western England, urging caution for travelers.
Cleanup efforts from early December’s Storm Darragh are ongoing, keeping the Port of Holyhead closed until at least January 15. Although this weekend’s storm is expected to be less severe, it will likely still cause significant disruptions.
Widespread winds of 50–60 mph are forecast for Saturday, with exposed coastal areas in Northwest Ireland and Scotland potentially experiencing gusts over 70–80mph. These conditions could result in fallen trees and hazardous travel during pre-Christmas weekend.
Airports, rail services, and ferries are preparing for delays or cancellations. Travelers should allow extra time, monitor updates, and prepare for disruptions. Scattered power outages and localized damage to infrastructure are a concern, as downed power lines may cause communication issues. Homeowners should secure any outdoor items.
Christmas shopping, festive markets, and delivery services could be affected, making early adjustments essential to avoid last-minute disruptions. The storm’s impact may complicate preparations, but calmer weather is forecast early next week ahead of Christmas Day.
A windstorm is set to disrupt pre-Christmas travel across Ireland and the U.K. this weekend.
Thousands Missing Following Cyclone Chido in Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Chido will be remembered as one of the most catastrophic natural disasters of 2024, leaving a trail of devastation across Mayotte, Mozambique, and Malawi. Striking Mayotte directly as a Category 4 hurricane equivalent, the storm unleashed sustained winds of approximately 130 mph last Saturday. Although landfall occurred six days ago, authorities are only now uncovering the full extent of loss of life and destruction.
(Note: A few of the following links are in French.)Relief efforts are underway, with northern villages gradually regaining access to drinking water. An air bridge has been established from Reunion Island, and other essential supplies are en route by sea. While 75% of roads have been cleared, the southern region remains without electricity, drinking water, or passable roads. Ten thousand Cholera vaccines will be administered amid concerns of an outbreak due to flooding and water stagnation.
In Mozambique, Cyclone Chido has claimed 73 lives, with most fatalities occurring in Cabo Delgado province. Over 45,000 people have been affected, with significant destruction in Nampula and Niassa provinces. Relief operations continue for displaced residents. In neighboring Malawi, the death toll stands at 13, with over 45,000 people impacted and over 200 displaced.
The aftermath of Cyclone Chido, in Mamoudzou, Mayotte, France. Photo: REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes
California Declares State of Emergency Over Bird Flu as Louisiana Records First Severe Human Case in U.S.: On Wednesday, California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency to facilitate the state’s response to Avian influenza A (H5N1), also known as bird flu. The declaration comes as more states report human cases of the virus, and health officials confirmed the first known severe illness caused by bird flu in the U.S. To date, the virus, found in birds and other animals like dairy cattle, has caused 61 confirmed U.S. cases.
After primarily impacting dairy cows in the Central Valley, reports of cases in Southern California herds spurred the declaration of a state of emergency. California's actions include regular public outreach, increased testing and monitoring, and personal protective equipment (PPE) distribution to high-risk farm workers. California has reported the most cases in the country at 34. All but one have been traced to exposure to dairy herds.
Officials in Louisiana reported their first case of H5N1 on December 13. The patient, a man over 65 with underlying health issues, had been in contact with sick and dead birds in a backyard flock, potentially making it the first U.S. case linked to backyard birds (the official investigation is ongoing). He is currently hospitalized in critical condition. Elsewhere, a teenager in British Columbia had also been hospitalized with a new genotype of H5N1.
Officials stress that the risk to the general public is low, but those who work directly with animals are at higher risk of exposure and should wear PPE. Pets and backyard flocks should also be kept away from wild birds. While there have been no confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission, scientists are monitoring for potential mutations that could allow the virus to spread between people. Earlier this month, the National Institute of Health (NIH) said that researchers discovered a mutation in a surface protein that could enable easier human infection.
Widespread Protests Disrupt Schools in Serbia: Student protests over the fatal Novi Sad train station collapse have canceled classes at over 40 Serbian universities. (Note: A few of the following links are in Serbian.) Agricultural, environmental, and student-led groups are calling for a mass demonstration in Belgrade’s Slavija Square on Sunday at 4 pm.
The demonstrations stem from public anger over the November train station collapse in Novi Sad that killed 15 people. The event prompted waves of protests calling for investigations into the incident and denouncing the government.
In addition to Sunday’s gathering, students are expected to continue their widespread protests. Participants are calling for greater transparency into the investigation of the collapse and for the arrests of individuals who attacked students in Belgrade last month.
Teachers across Serbia are joining the protests, with a week-long strike planned next week. Several education unions announced work stoppages beginning today, prompting Serbia’s Ministry of Education to propose an earlier start to schools’ winter break to prevent disruptions.
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