From Hegemony to Harmony

The Return of Trump

Donald Trump’s return to the highest office marks a momentous shift in American political history, reflecting a country weary of progressive ideological excesses and a detached elite. Against formidable odds, Trump has emerged as the 47th President, propelled by a groundswell of public sentiment questioning the "woke" agenda, which many feel is eroding the stability and integrity of the American middle class—the nation's very bedrock. In these turbulent times, as geopolitical tensions escalate and distant conflicts draw ever closer, the people have demonstrated a preference for a leader who speaks not in the sterile vocabulary of technocracy but in the language of national interest and cultural continuity.

In the current geopolitical climate, as global tensions rise and conflicts edge closer to home, Trump’s nationalist stance challenges the sustainability of a centralised, bureaucratic state. The ostensibly rational, technocratic model is perceived as out of touch—a system imposing abstract ideals while failing to address society’s organic needs. This growing disconnect fuels public distrust, as citizens feel their leaders are prioritising elite interests over the common good. Trump’s rhetoric taps into this sentiment, framing the status quo as not only ineffective but as an obstacle to national identity and sovereignty. In this light, his administration signals a possible reorientation of American governance towards a model that emphasises local values and national interests over globalist agendas.

BRICS in the New World Order

The implications of Trump’s presidency extend beyond U.S. borders, influencing alliances such as the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Trump’s economic policies, marked by a protectionist stance, have sent ripples through global markets—especially with his proposal of a 100% tariff on countries moving away from the U.S. dollar for trade. While this strategy aims to reinforce the dollar's global dominance, it risks straining relationships with BRICS nations, many of which are exploring alternative currencies to reduce their reliance on the dollar.

Simultaneously, Trump’s approach to foreign conflicts—particularly his intent to rapidly resolve the ongoing war in Ukraine—signals a potential shift toward a non-interventionist U.S. foreign policy. Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised Trump’s peace intentions as "sincere," suggesting a path to de-escalation that could reshape U.S. involvement in global affairs. However, any resolution could have significant costs for Kyiv. This shift would likely prompt BRICS members and European allies alike to recalibrate their strategies, weighing economic autonomy against renewed regional security considerations.

Europe’s Struggle

Trump’s emphasis on nationalist priorities and a pivot towards domestic interests also carries substantial consequences for Europe, where aging populations, economic challenges, and political disenfranchisement already weigh on governments. As the U.S. becomes more inward-focused, Europe may find itself more isolated in facing these growing pressures. The aging demographic, increasingly reliant on social safety nets, places a heavier tax burden on younger citizens. With a potential reduction in U.S. support for NATO, European nations might face heightened defense responsibilities, increasing public dissatisfaction and fueling movements that question the EU’s centralised governance.

In response, Trump’s approach may encourage European nations to prioritise local communities’ unique needs, bridging the gap between national policies and the concerns of those who feel overlooked. In countries like Italy, France, and Spain—where calls for stronger representation are rising—leaders might adopt a more balanced approach, integrating protective policies that support local stability and economic resilience. This renewed focus on national interests, combined with a commitment to EU unity, could drive the development of a more flexible and responsive EU that better serves its diverse member states. As Europe navigates rising welfare demands, the EU has an opportunity to refine its approach, balancing collective goals with individual sovereignty to build a more economically resilient region.

Market Reactions and Economic Outlook

In the wake of the news, investors are closely observing potential shifts in U.S. economic policy, as U.S. equity futures price in a 2% rally and bond yields stabilise after recent highs. This renewed optimism signals confidence in a policy landscape leaning towards protectionism and domestic growth, with Trump’s administration advancing tariffs and other measures that may strengthen U.S. industries and reduce reliance on global supply chains. European markets echo this enthusiasm, with equities rallying over 2% following an overnight sell-off, as European economies adjust to a potential decrease in U.S. support and an increased focus on regional resilience.

Meanwhile, in Asia, Chinese equities listed in Hong Kong have dipped 2.6%, offsetting recent gains and reflecting caution among investors as they assess the implications of a shifting U.S. stance on trade and currency. As BRICS nations further explore a multipolar financial framework, an alternative payments system and consider a commodity-backed currency, the gradual move away from dollar dependency could reshape global markets, challenging the dollar’s dominance and opening paths to greater economic independence for emerging economies.

A Changing NATO

Trump’s approach to NATO further underscores his commitment to a non-interventionist policy, advocating for a reduced U.S. military footprint within global alliances. By insisting that NATO allies increase their defence spending, Trump emphasises that America should not indefinitely shoulder the primary responsibility for European security. This perspective aligns with his broader vision of shifting U.S. priorities away from extensive foreign commitments, focusing instead on bolstering internal security and economic resilience. In Trump’s view, American involvement in NATO should be rooted in mutual benefit rather than perpetual dependence. This approach challenges allies to take greater ownership of their own defence needs, particularly in an evolving global landscape.

By encouraging NATO allies to invest more in their defence capabilities, Trump’s stance reflects a recalibration towards a self-reliant alliance structure. This non-interventionist approach suggests that European countries should be prepared for a future where the U.S. may no longer play an automatic, protective role. Such a shift could push European allies to develop more autonomous defence strategies, aligning with Trump’s vision of a more balanced global order. Rather than serving as the world’s protector, the U.S. under Trump aims to pursue a sustainable alliance model, promoting responsibility-sharing. This perspective ultimately fosters a rebalanced NATO that may better endure the demands of an increasingly multipolar world.

The Mainstream Media Shift

Amid these political changes, mainstream media’s influence is under scrutiny. Over the past year, alternative media platforms have emerged as key sources of information for those disillusioned with traditional outlets. Legacy media has portrayed Trump as unfit and President Biden as a stable leader; however, as Biden’s approval ratings dipped, the narrative faltered. Vice President Harris, initially presented in a favourable light, has also faced public scepticism over her avoidance of unscripted engagements, fuelling a demand for transparency. Many Americans have turned to independent platforms like X/Twitter, signalling a shift away from mainstream sources in a search for authenticity.

This increasing reliance on alternative media reflects a broader distrust of mainstream narratives. The use of legal measures against political opposition and the suppression of primary challengers are seen by some as moves to protect the status quo. Far from defending democratic norms, these actions reveal an establishment struggling to uphold a fragile narrative under the guise of democratic protection. The 2024 election cycle may solidify a fundamental transformation in American and, indeed, global media consumption.

BRICS Summit in Kazan

The recent BRICS summit in Kazan, gathering representatives from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, underscored a growing effort to reshape the global financial landscape. With new members like Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the UAE joining the bloc, BRICS signals resistance to dollar hegemony and an aspiration for a multipolar financial order. Nearly fifty nations have expressed interest in joining the BRICS initiative, highlighting a potential shift away from unilateral influence. As the global financial order evolves, the Kazan summit’s emphasis on building financial autonomy serves as a reminder: when confidence in a system fades, instability can quickly ensue.

While coverage of the Kazan summit has been minimal in Western media, the implications are profound. BRICS is not a mere counterweight to the G7; it represents a movement towards economic independence. Saudi Arabia, for example, has advocated for a cohesive strategy to further strengthen the BRICS framework, suggesting a more organised bloc that prioritises the interests of the Global South. The New Development Bank (NDB) has emerged as a critical institution within BRICS, offering credit to member countries without the stringent conditions traditionally imposed by the IMF. This institution promotes a financial model that emphasises stability, particularly for countries vulnerable to dollar volatility.

Financial Decentralisation

Another innovation is BRICS Pay, a payment system that bypasses SWIFT, directly challenging Western financial hegemony. BRICS Pay symbolises a bold and strategic break from traditional power structures—an alternative to Western dominance based on the practical logic of decentralisation. Where SWIFT previously held near-uncontested authority over global transactions, BRICS Pay emerges as a less dependent option on Western-led centralised systems, paving the way for a more balanced and diversified economic order.

This consortium, comprising banks and financial institutions from BRICS countries, forms a network in which decision-making and control are distributed among various participants, avoiding the concentration of power in a single entity. Interestingly, the members of this consortium remain confidential, hinting at possible involvement of institutions outside the BRICS bloc. This secrecy might indicate a broader ambition to restructure the global financial architecture, integrating new players that go beyond conventional geopolitical boundaries.

India’s Strategic Role in BRICS

India plays a strategic role in this new configuration. Talks between its Prime Minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi suggest a shift in India’s orientation. The country seems poised not only to balance East and West but also to help build a financial framework that serves regional interests. The summit in Kazan showcased a rare consensus between India and China, a moment of unity in an often diplomatically cautious relationship. In recent years, India’s ties with Russia and engagement with Iran have strengthened, indicating a deliberate move away from Western influences.

India’s leadership in the BRICS Pay initiative demonstrates its commitment to a decentralised financial network for the region. The Kazan Declaration reinforces this vision: India supports the use of local currencies in loans, signalling its desire to see the Global South less exposed to dollar fluctuations and pressures. This move represents not only financial autonomy but also sovereignty over its economic future.

The Case for a Commodity-Backed Currency

The concept of a commodity-backed currency has gained significant traction within BRICS as an alternative to traditional fiat models. By tying currency values to tangible resources such as energy, minerals, and agricultural products, this approach offers resource-rich nations a pathway to economic independence from external market fluctuations. Countries like Egypt, which rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt, often face currency devaluation and inflation, impacting their citizens’ welfare. In response, BRICS members are exploring the idea of local-currency loans backed by their own resource assets, providing a financial buffer and reducing reliance on dollar-dominated financial systems. This shift could help foster economic stability by aligning currency values more closely with the countries’ real wealth.  Notably, quantitative easing—while beneficial for the USA—has devalued the dollar globally, placing additional strain on dollar-dependent economies. 

The move towards a commodity-backed model also reflects a growing demand for gold and other tangible assets, as BRICS nations anticipate a potential shift away from the dollar’s dominance. By accumulating gold and energy resources, member nations are signalling a broader pivot to assets that offer intrinsic value, thereby protecting themselves from dollar-driven volatility. This increase in gold acquisitions aligns with a larger trend towards tangible assets, potentially driving a bull market in commodities. For these countries, anchoring economic stability in real assets rather than currency exchanges offers a strategic hedge, promoting a more balanced and sustainable financial framework for the future.

Toward a New Global Order

The Kazan summit’s focus on sovereignty and self-determination underscores a global shift challenging U.S. influence, including the dollar’s dominance, while reflecting the reorientation of American priorities under Trump’s leadership. His administration’s non-interventionist approach signals a turn inward, prioritising national stability over global policing, which aligns with a broader trend of nations seeking greater autonomy from traditional Western-dominated structures. With rising economic and geopolitical stakes, Trump’s push for a recalibrated role in NATO and his critiques of unequal alliances resonate with a desire for balanced partnerships rather than dependency.

In tandem, the media landscape is undergoing its own upheaval, as Americans increasingly turn away from mainstream narratives in favour of independent platforms. This shift signals a growing demand for transparency and authenticity, mirroring the global realignment led by BRICS nations striving for a multipolar world order. Together, these developments suggest a reimagining of power structures, where countries and citizens alike seek policies that serve their own interests and priorities. Although this path may be fraught with challenges, it offers a vision of shared prosperity and sovereignty—a model that compels established powers to embrace a world where influence is earned through partnership, not dominance.