The future of retail: three trends that will shape your strategy over the next five years

If you work in retail, this is probably the most difficult situation your company has ever faced. Many have focused on survival, but some stores have experienced tremendous growth due to their response to unprecedented demand in a new and unexpected environment. While it is true that we are not out of this crisis yet, it is time to prepare businesses for recovery and growth.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, I began to wonder what the future of the retail sector in different markets would look like in the next five years. To find out, I conducted a study, taking into account physical stores, e-commerce platforms and marketplaces across all retail industries in ten countries around the world.

The importance of integrating the online and offline experience

Retailers with a strong digital offering will increase their sales over the next five years.

Although the crisis has accelerated the digital transformation and online sales are growing, it is expected that the majority of purchases will still be made offline in 2024 (78% compared to 22% online sales).1 However, what is really important is to think not only about the channels through which consumers transact, but the types of stores they choose. This study shows that stores with a strong digital offering will increase sales over the next five years even if consumers choose to shop in physical stores.2 This highlights the importance of delivering an experience that seamlessly integrates online and offline.

By 2024, 53% of retail revenues will go to stores that have a digital offering integrated into their business model.3 If tighter containment measures are applied, this figure could rise to 56%, as consumers will continue to shop online rather than in stores.4 In the most advanced markets, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, two-thirds of revenues will be received by stores with digital channels. In Spain, 33% of sales will be made by retailers with a digital offering. The physical channel will still account for 67% of sales.

How could retail growth be redeployed in the long term?

The retail ecosystem is diverse, so stores with digital offerings span a wide range of formats. There are retailers starting their digital transformation, marketplaces growing through multinationals and local companies with high market share, or online businesses gradually including physical stores through diversification of their offering.

To take the next step, I wanted to know what might happen to the growth of all these formats. Would it affect market share? How might it be redistributed over five years? Would it vary in different markets? In the study, I analyze the movement of market share by store format. Depending on the business model, here's what we can expect:

- Large contraction of retail stores whose presence is physical-only, in all markets....

- Increasing share of mixed physical stores (stores with between 5% and 35% e-commerce sales) in most markets.

- Limited growth of online stores in almost all markets as they start to diversify their offerings, e.g. by opening stores.

- Significant increase in the share of marketplaces in almost all countries.

Three trends that will shape your long-term strategy

In analyzing how retailers can prepare for this shift in market share across formats, I've identified three key trends. These consumer findings can help you develop your marketing strategy for long-term success.

1. Now that consumers are shopping both online and in-store, multichannel (mixed and blended physical stores) and marketplace formats will drive 86% of sales growth over the next five years.

2. The pandemic has made consumers less concerned about shopping online or in-store, and 73% are channel agnostic (65% pre-crisis). Consumers will want to enjoy a more blended experience between the two channels.

3. As purchasing decisions are increasingly complex, consumers also expect useful information, such as competitive pricing, recommendations and personalization, to help them make decisions.

Multichannel and marketplace formats will drive 86% of sales in the next five years.

Preparing for the future of retailing:

Over the next five years, consumers will continue to shop in physical stores, but as online investment continues to grow, retailers will need to integrate their digital and physical experiences to achieve the best possible results. Consumers will give preference to stores that have a digital offering, even if they complete their transactions physically. As we've learned this year, the only thing constant is change, and stores must be prepared for what's to come. Here are a few points to keep in mind:

1. Consumers have a lot of options to choose from. Therefore, stores must help them make informed decisions with useful information to differentiate themselves from the competition.

2. In the future of retail, it will no longer be a choice between physical stores and online presence; instead, stores will have to move away from focusing on where the transaction is completed to integrating their online and offline experiences.

3. Retailers must meet the growing expectations of consumers and offer them a seamless experience, so they cannot afford to stop investing in digital transformation.

Miguel Ángel