Is the future of SIDS worth 0.0005% of annual global emissions? Why COP26 is not a Zoom meeting.

Perhaps you are like me and you waste your time checking social media hoping for something actually insightful or inspiring. If you do then you have most likely come across some variation of this pseudo-intellectual quip:

"If world leaders really cared about climate, COP26 would have happened over Zoom instead of flying to Glasgow."

The irony they hope to impress upon is that air travel to results in carbon emissions, which is the chief culprit of accelerated climate change. However, such a statement trivializes the importance of this conference and shows a clear lack of understanding of both the COP process and high-stakes negotiation.

On 01 November 2021, the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicked off after much anticipation. It is heralded by many, including myself, to be one of - if not the - most important climate conference yet as our leaders must make clear, firm decisions that will literally shape the future of the planet. At COP26 consensus must be achieved on three critical topics:

1. The ending of coal-based power and increased ambitions towards a carbon neutral planet by 2050.
2. The detailing of the long-term finance (LTF) mechanism for ensuring the US$ 100 billion per year floor of finance is met and transferred from developed countries to developing countries to support clean energy transitions and climate adaptation.
3. The commitment of substantial financing towards adaptation efforts to small island and frontline states facing the worst of climate change.

Achieving consensus on these issues is not, and will not be, a walk in the park. Most developed countries have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, while most developing and frontline states depend on bold changes for their literal future. We are on a pathway of heating up the Earth to the point where within a decade most coral reefs would be dead, and sea-level rise and annual hurricane damage would routinely exceed the GDP capacity of our islands. Global temperatures can exceed 4 degrees Celsius change before there is existential threat to Shanghai and Miami; but Caribbean economies face decimation at 1.5 - 2 degrees Celsius increase. We are currently at 1.2 degrees Celsius. Trinidad and Tobago needs to look no further than the last two months to see the effects of our current 1.2 degrees Celsius increase: 'freak' downpours devastated Port-of-Spain; 'anomalous' thunderstorms bringing hail in Arouca while simultaneously Southern Trinidad experienced temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius on the urban heat index; and swarms of Moruga Locusts sweep through Southern Trinidad's agricultural and urban areas in an unprecedented pattern of behaviour exacerbated by wetter and warmer conditions. For us in the Caribbean, global leaders cannot waffle on the three headline issues at COP26. There is a historic weight on their shoulders.

The summit is just the tip of the rapidly melting iceberg. Most of us are unaware of the tens of thousands of hours of work done by technocrats and negotiators over the year leading up to the conference through smaller meetings, diplomatic channels, and yes, Zoom. These negotiations were rife with challenges typical of virtual meetings such as real (and feigned) connectivity issues when having to make decisions. At this critical juncture, we cannot afford excuses. As island nations, we are already on the backfoot and getting the short end of the stick.

High-level meetings of this magnitude demand in-person gathering. When a country's economy and future of their people is on the line, few would take the words of others at face value. Our leaders must literally read the room; read the tone, body language, and reactions of their peers. Every word counts. Every pause. Every applause. Our leaders are going to make economy-shaking decisions with repercussions that will, for better or worse, last for decades. With stakes that high, physical presence matters.

By now, we have all seen Barbados' PM Mia Amor Mottley's passionate and sobering speech at the COP26 Plenary. Notice the other world leaders as the camera pans and how they are locked in attention. Notice the air of the room as she delivers. The resonance. I assure you that this impact would be lost if attendance was virtual and leaders could entertain distractions while 'on mute'. I am willing to bet that certain countries might have missed bits and pieces because of connectivity issues - real or imagined.

"When will leaders lead? Our people are watching. Our people are taking note" - PM Mia Mottley.

To state that peer-pressure and physical presence makes a meaningful difference to these negotiations is not conjecture. We've seen it before. At COP13 in Bali, the United States stood opposed to developed countries receiving financing to adapt to the effects of climate change. The speaker for Papa New Guinea took the floor and delivered an impassioned presentation. "If you aren't willing to lead...then get out of the way", he said to thunderous applause. Against the tidal wave of opposition, the representative of the US conceded and voted in favor of the decision. Make-or-break moments like this are only possible when leaders are forced to face, literally face, their contemporaries and account for their choices.

"We have listed to our colleagues over the past two weeks and we are heartened by the comments especially by the developing countries...The United States wants to ensure that we will go forward together so let me say, Mr. Chairman, that we will go forward and join consensus today." - US Secretary of State, Paula Dobriansky

COP26 is expected to be attended by by over 30,000 persons ranging from the 120+ heads of state, bankers and representatives of financial institutions, civil society, and individuals who want their voices heard. Based on past COP Carbon footprints, a gathering of this magnitude would account for roughly 25,000 tonnes of CO2e, or 0.000058% of the planet's current annual emissions. Given what's at stake, which weighs more: 25,000 tonnes of CO2e or the future of our islands? For me, giving frontline and small island states the best chance of a safe and prosperous future outweighs the carbon cost of getting our leaders in the room.

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Ryan Assiu is a Sustainable Development and Climate Change Specialist by qualification, Program Coordinator by experience, and Educator by passion. He is on a journey to discover his authentic professional identity which has taken him to companies, CSOs and governments throughout the Caribbean. His writings focus on sharing his experiences and knowledge on a wide range of environmental topics relevant to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as his home country of Trinidad and Tobago. Follow him on LinkedIn @ Ryan Assiu | LinkedIn