(No) Future for South Africa

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

During the craziness of the past 10 days, post-elections, a very complex pilitical situation has arisen in South Africa.

If considering Jacob Zuma's once infamous prediction that "The ANC will rule until Jesus comes" - Jesus has proverbially come for this party.

Call it divine justice or merely coincidence but that coming has arrived as they no longer have a mandate or majority to rule. The much-loved Zuma (in some circles) was ironically the wrecking ball that hastened his very own predictions and essentially; he gave opposition parties in this country the biggest gift that they could ever have expected.

This said, the country and particularly the ANC now stands at a crossroads - the party reforms (becomes moderate and centrist) or it hastens its demise (turns left towards ruinous socialism) and in so doing, plunges the country deeper into a morass caused by their party-over-country follies and policies. Will the ANC do the "right thing"? - this is the imperative question.

Having listened to senior ANC elders such as Mathews Phosa who is seemingly still trapped in the identity politics or race mindset; one large part of my better judgement tells me that the ANC is imprisoned too deeply in a socialist-promoting vacuum to be able to redeem itself. Another smaller part of thinking tells me that perhaps Ramaphosa will take this opportunity to sweep clean and rid the party of destructive, parasitic, and archaic thinkers such as COSATU and the SACP.

Essentially, Ramaphosa has the perfect opportunity to rid his party and the country of the opportunists who have now chosen the MKP as a political home. There will still be other ANC members who see MK as a chance to perpetuate the feeding frenzy and their chorus of condemning the party for reforming and fixing lucrative chaos will be louder than ever. These are people who know that chaos equals easy pickings!

I was surprised, but not too much, that Phosa - a man who was once a provincial Premier and professes to be a businessman who is "promoting foreign investment" - suggested that he has briefed Ramaphosa and has explained to him that a coalition or similar governance agreement; should involve the ANC joining hands with the EFF and IFP.

His reasoning was that the DA (a "white party") is too ideologically divergent and that they don't support Palestine and corruption-enabling mechanisms such as BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) that effectively, has only assisted a select few who are in close proximity to power. This constitutes a very ignorant world view but i concur that REAL BEE needs to be prioritized. If one likes it or not, of all available potential partners in forming a GNU (Goveremt of National Unity) or a coalition; the DA is the most attractive of sizeable available entities or potential partners in respect of luring foreign investors who can expedite much needed growth. The EFF is viewed as a dangerous band of opportunists.

Irrespective of the rantings of wannabe dictators and champagne socialists, economic growth is the ONLY remedy for narrowing the wealth gap in South Africa and for alleviating the grinding poverty that afflicts millions of South African citizens today and that will continue to do so if the ANC continues on its path to self-destruction. Of course ignorant detractors who have been socialized into the oppressor-oppressed race-baiting mindset, while enriching themselves, will accuse me of bias and so too will the politicians who trade in chaos.

The fact is however that ardent socialism has a glaring record of failure: the highly resourced USSR that was constituted by 15 countries failed, so too did Venezuela, and North Korea only exists today because it's propped-up by Russia and China in return for its anti-western stance. The ANC's biggest challenge going forward is that it's become a party attractive to less educated rural voters and in context of ongoing urbanization; its silent urban majority remains silent and perpetually looking for other options because ANC failure is indeed glaring and is increasingly being felt.

This all said, my initial prediction was an ANC/DA/Smaller parties coalition but I'm starting to wonder if a governance coalition will occur at all?! Effectively, one involving the DA will purge the ANC of all left-leaning charlatans and opportunists which would indeed be a good thing for the ANC but, it would probably also signal the demise of the DA. I think many parties view the next 2029 elections as the real objective because if the ANC chooses the partners that Phosa suggests, particularly the EFF, the ANC will not see the 2029 elections and this offers political parties vast opportunity for expansion.

Whether South Africa can survive another 5 years on the present trajectory is another question and I have my doubts - I'm trying to remain hopeful that common sense prevails! In returning to ANC and DA working relationships, the DA actually holds a very strong trumpcard in that working with this party and the IFP in KZN is the only way that the ANC can save that province from total destruction at the greedy hands of Zuma's MKP - the ANC has no other options in that province. Such coalition would need to include the EFF who in fact have very different views about foreigners and ethno-nationalism than what MK has but, their understanding of what's at stake is very limited in my opinion. This may seem to be an insignificant broader political factor but; if the ANC indeed gives control to Zuma and he unilaterally declares the independence of that province with the help of a party like the EFF; the ANC has not only forever lost a vast chunk of voters but, the further balkanisation of South Africa under possible further events such as CapeExit (which will get vast western backing) becomes a looming spectre. If Ramaphosa and the ANC have any shred of astuteness in them, they will collaborate with the DA in that province and await the implosion of MK. In any event, Zuma is MK and when he's no longer there, the party is over; both literally and figuratively.

Essentially, the fate of KZN now lies in Ramaphosa's hands and if he makes more spineless decisions, the fate of the Republic also hangs in the balance. So, what will the ANC do? I believe that they will not enter into any formal coalitions and may rather suggest a loose form of co-operation rather than a GNU that will be dangerous for parties like the DA if they ever considered such potentially tainting collaboration - levels of DA participation however, one would think, will depend on how far the ANC is willing to reform for the betterment of South Africa. I think that collaboration will be more on a provincial basis and this spells good things in respect of a devolution of powers that counteracts the formation of strengthened Marxist-style centralization.

The ANC also knows that Zuma doesn't have time on his hands and if rumors of Russian bankrolling in order to get Zuma to declare an independent state are true; the DA will be a factor in that province. This is however not to say that MK won't try to make KZN ungovernable in their efforts to effect a Russian mandate. We know that the MKP is highly militarized and this is where the biggest dilemma for the ANC arises - who assists them in the event of an armed uprising? Much of the military may indeed be MK-inclined because Zuma was cunning during his presidency to fill positions with cronies. What is a greater dilemma for an unreformed ANC is that if Russia is backing MK, Putin has essentially chosen sides and the ANC will need to look west for assistance but; the party has essentially alienated itself from potential western allies!

Indeed, I'm fully aware that agreements with western powers have their own dangers and trappings but at present, the ANC finds itself in the proverbial no man's land. So, does it go on appeasing Sino-Russia-alligned entities such as COSATU and the SACP that I believe may start thinking about supporting parties like MK or does it follow a Gorbachev-style reformation programme that moves to a more centrist and investor friendly socio-political positioning? I don't think it has any choices but to reform and positioning itself close to outdated ideologies such as what the EFF promotes is not only foolish but will continue the country's downhill slide and will ultimately result in the party's demise - there is no doubt about that. The destruction of our socialist-style SOEs is testament to failure.

I also believe that the DA has become astute over time in respect of formulating coalition agreements at municipal and provincial level - the ANC has never needed to do so. I think that the DA will play a waiting game and they know that they have the backing of the "aligned world"/potential investors that can effect all-important economic growth - let's see if the ANC chooses reformation or destruction and whether they understand the immense role that geopolitics is presently playing in South African politics....either the ANC continues to carry the proverbial rotting albatross around its neck or it enters into a phase of glasnost and perestroika! Let's see what unfolds...