Ghana set for tight race on Dec 7 although Mahama remains favourite

• Opinion polls have been mixed but it still appears likely that Mahama will win
• There is possibility of runoff in which case turnout might prove key for final outcome
• Mahama win will result in policy changes, but he will likely stick to IMF programme
• Recent statements suggest Mahama might not be that steadfast on some promises such as anti-LGBTQ signing
• Elections are expected to be generally peaceful despite existing tensions between two main forces

The presidential election on Dec 7 shapes up to be a tight race between John Mahama of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling National New Patriotic Party (NPP), although Mahama still appears to be a favourite. His chances look better mainly due to the public discontent with the NPP's handling of the country's tough economic situation which necessitated a debt restructuring and an IMF programme. The rising prices, growing unemployment and weakening currency have been major issues for voters and Mahama has focused his campaign on measures to boost the economy, create jobs and reduce the tax burden, as well as tackle corruption. A series of different surveys have pointed to sliding popularity and approval ratings of the government and rising perception that it is failing in dealing with the economic challenges, which has fortified the view that Mahama and NDC have better chances to win the elections. Still, it is hard to call the outcome as the election promises to be highly contested.

In any case, despite the existing tensions between the two main political parties, the elections are expected to be generally free and fair, and the transfer of power to be peaceful.

OPINION POLLS

There have not been many opinion polls and even those that have been released have faced criticism depending on what outcome they are pointing too. The only regular polls have been those of Global InfoAnalytics, a local research agency, which has consistently pointed to a Mahama lead. Their latest prediction released before the polls, which was conducted by Nov 16, suggests in its base case scenario an outright win for Mahama with 52.2% of the votes vs. 41.4% for Bawumia. Even in the worst-case scenario for Mahama, he was predicted to win with 50.4% vs. 43.0% for Bawumia. As for parliamentary seats, Global InfoAnalytics predicted NDC winning 150, NPP winning 99 and an independent winning one seat, while 26 seats are difficult to predict so could go either way. However, even if these are all won by NPP, they will still trail behind NDC which will secure a comfortable majority. The survey predicts turnout of over 96%.

While these polls have been the most regular, they have still faced criticism. Some have pointed out that the Global InfoAnalytics conduct its surveys in less than half of the constituencies, and among less than 3,000 respondents, raising questions about its representativeness. In addition, it assumes quite a high turnout given that the average turnout in Ghanaian elections over the years has been around 73% with the highest (about 86%) seen in 2004 presidential vote. The last election in 2020 saw a relatively high turnout of 79% and it might be even higher this year given the strong public interest.

Another survey released more recently, by Professor Smart Sarpong, who heads research at Kumasi Technical University, predicted that none of the candidates will win in the first round and there will be a runoff. The survey was conducted among nearly 100,000 respondents in all 276 constituencies and put Bawumia in the lead with 49.1% but still below to 50% + 1 to win, ahead of Mahama with 45.8%. This survey predicted a turnout of 81.4%. This survey, however, has been conducted via face-to-face interviews which differs from the phone interviews used by Global InfoAnalytics. It also predicts that Bawumia will win in seven regions against only three in the Global InfoAnalytics polls. Sarpong has defended his methods pointing out that he very accurately predicted the 2020 result using the same type of survey.

There have also been other predictions such as the one by the think-tank Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG), which said it expected Bawumia to win narrowly with 50.2% vs 47.3% for Mahama. However, it is not clear how the survey was conducted. Besides, the IPG has appeared sympathetic to the NPP government, often criticising the opposition, so the results of the survey should probably not be taken at their face value.

In summary, the different methods and approaches have resulted in a varying set of poll results, which do not allow to make a final prediction. In any case, the election is expected to be highly contested, and could possibly go to runoff. The final outcome will largely depend on the turnout, especially in some regions. Mahama seems to be in the lead in swing regions while Bawumia dominates in the second most populous region Ashanti. Another factor will be the undecided voters who the Global InfoAnalytics surveys have put at around 9-10% which means they can sway the final result. The ability of Bawumia to convince voters about the NPP government's achievements and mobilise the party supporters will be of importance too, since apathy has been estimated to be higher among NPP voters.

POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS

As mentioned, given the lack of reliable opinion polls, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the elections with any certainty. There are basically, three options: an outright Mahama win, a runoff, and an outright Bawumia win, which currently appears the least likely.

Mahama wins in the first round

The likelihood of this scenario will increase in case of a high turnout, especially in swing regions. Such a result would imply a majority for NDC in parliament which should make it easier for the new administration to implement its policies and reforms. The current parliament is almost split which has made it difficult for the NPP government to push through some legislation, including the budget. Mahama has said he will look to implement measures to boost the economy and create jobs, review the tax regime to reduce the burden on Ghanaians and attract more investment in the oil and has sector, and invest heavily in infrastructure.

He has also said he plans to renegotiate the IMF programme but has not provided concrete details aside from saying he would potentially seek more funding and ensure debt sustainability. While his track record with implementation of IMF programmes has not been good (there was major fiscal slippage ahead of the 2016 election when he was president), Mahama has not outright said he will seek significant changes to the programme and apparently would prefer to stick to it. Still, there are expectations among his supporters that he will renegotiate some of the stringent fiscal adjustment measures and his pledges to cut or abolish some taxes, plus his sizeable infrastructure investment plans, have raised some questions about his fiscal policy.

Another issue is the anti-LGBTQ legislation which Mahama has pledged to sign if elected. This could potentially have impact on external financing. The outgoing finance ministry issued a brief earlier this year which estimated that the law enforcement could result in the loss of g USD 3.8bn World Bank support as well as have negative implications on budget financing, reserves and the exchange rate. However, in a recent BBC interview, Mahama refused to provide a clear answer on whether he will sign the bill, saying he will first look what is in it. This suggests there is a possibility he will not be in a hurry to sign it and might propose changes.

With regards to one of his central election promises, a 24-hour economy, Mahama was also vague, saying he might not be able to fully introduce it in four years, but he will start the process. He also could give a number about its expected costs, which is the main question mark about the idea.

All this suggests than Mahama might not be willing to make significant policy changes and will stick to the reform path agreed by the current administration.

No candidate wins in the first round and there is a runoff

The likelihood of such scenario, where no candidate gets 50% +1 votes in the first round, is not that low given that the race is expected to be highly contested. In case of a second round, the final outcome will be decided by the other candidates, mostly likely the top two that are expected to come third and fourth in the vote, Alan Kyerematen of the Movement for Change, and Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force Movement, the combined support for whom has been estimated in different polls at around 4-5%. It is not clear whom they might support in a second round. Kyerematen was previously member of the NPP which he left unhappy with the atmosphere and the pressure he claimed he faced because of his presidential ambitions. Nana Kwame Bediako has not been members of either of the two major parties, but he comes from Ashanti region which is a stronghold of NPP. Still, it is impossible to say which way they will go in case of a runoff which means it can be won by either of the two main candidates. The turnout, and whether it will increase and in which regions, will also be important for the final outcome.

Bawumia wins in the first round

This appears to be the least likely scenario at the moment, although it again will depend on whether the NPP have managed to mobilise its supporter base in its strongholds, and whether it will make headways in swing regions. Such a scenario will to the most extent ensure a policy continuity and an adherence to the IMF programme. The IMF Board, which has just completed the third review under the arrangement, noted that the government has pledged commitment to reforms and fiscal adjustment, and this is expected to remain the case if NPP wins.

However, there are still risks of a slippage in the pre-election period. The IMF has revised up the 2024 fiscal deficit projection to 4.7% of GDP from previously programmed 3.5% because of the spending pressures stemming from the dry spell in the northern parts of the country and the energy sector challenges. However, other spending could also have been increased ahead of the elections although it is hard to say what the budget performance has been in H2 as the government has not released any new data beyond Jan-Jul. Even the economic data released ahead of the MPC meeting in late November did not contain newer numbers which raises some questions. Still, the NPP is expected to stick to the agreed reform programme and continue on the path of fiscal consolidation and complete the debt restructuring if elected.

ELECTION FRAMEWORK

The president is elected by a majority vote through a two-round system to serve a four-year term. He can serve a maximum of two terms in office. To be elected in the first round, a candidate should get 50% plus 1 of the votes cast, and if no one is able to achieve that, a run-off is held within 21 days, in which the candidate that secures the most votes wins.

The parliament has 275 MPs who are elected using the first-past-the-post system in single-member constituencies to serve four-year terms. However, the legislature is not proportionate, with low-population districts receiving more representatives per person than those with high populations. Thus, a party which has received more votes can actually get fewer or equal seats to the other, which happened in the 2020 elections (NPP had more votes that NDC but got equal number of seats in parliament, 137).

The election results are usually released within two days after polls are closed by the Electoral Commission. The results can be challenged within 21 days of the declaration of the results but the petitions against the presidential election results should be filed with the Supreme Court and the petitions against the parliamentary elections results should be filed with the High Court. A challenge to the validity of the process on the grounds of corrupt practice or any other fraud must be done prior to the publication of results.