GLP-1RAs Making An Impact on Obesity

A couple months ago, it was widely reported from a Financial Times article a decline in the rate of US obesity - a first in a few decades. In fact, I covered it in this posted article.

Last week, a new report from Benjamin Rader, PhD, MPH1,2; Rebecca Hazan, MPH3; John S. Brownstein, PhD1,4 provided more details in their Change in Adult Obesity Trends in the United States.

These findings suggest that BMI and obesity prevalence in the US decreased in 2023 for the first time in more than a decade. The most notable decrease was in the South, which had the highest observed per capita GLP-1RA dispensing rate.

Below are some of the details that I would think every business - food retailers, consumer package goods, medical device makers, etc. should pay particular attention. It would be interesting for strategic insights teams to marry their data against the results from this study to understand the impact of obesity declines by region and by age.

Below is a graphic of the obesity rate decline seen in the South. Northeast seemed to remain stable in their obesity rate while the West and Northeast had an uptick (2022 - 2023).

Additionally, age groups seem to be the most interesting piece of data from this study, as 66-to-75 year old's saw the greatest decline in obesity rates.

GLP-1RA Dispensing by Region

This study used a subset of 10,625,745 individuals with available 2023 insurance claims (Optum) with GLP-1RA dispensing differing by region:

1. South 6.0%
2. Midwest 5.1%
3. Northeast 4.4%
4. West, 3.4%

Real Chemistry Map

The claims data from the aforementioned academic study coincides with Real Chemistry 's tracker from its IRIS platform via an article in November from Newsweek .

More findings per the article:

• Nationally in the U.S., an average of 1 percent of all patients have taken GLP-1 drugs in the past year. This increases to 4.8 percent of all patients with an obesity diagnosis.
• Kentucky, Alaska and Alabama are the three states where weight loss drugs are most used, and Hawaii, Arizona and Colorado sit at the other end of the spectrum, a report has revealed.
• In Kentucky, the state with the highest levels of GLP-1 drug use, 1.9 percent of all patients take the drugs and 7 percent of patients with an obesity diagnosis.
• In second place, 1.8 percent of all patients in Alaska take GLP-1 drugs and 14.8 percent of patients with obesity. And third is Alabama, with 1.7 percent on GLP-1s and 6.5 percent of those with obesity.

I recommend both the academic study and Newsweek article for great details on other factors (race, economic, etc.) and the prevalence of usage of GLP-1RAs by various socioeconomic factors.

Joseph W. Sunderman is an Intelligence Analyst/Strategist that is a student of understanding the Current State of the US Health and its impact for the next decade. I developed the thesis over several months for Directions Research Group.  Upon completion of boiling the ocean on the topic and created an impeccable deliverable, which can be found in my project section of my LinkedIn page.

 In the past, Joe spent seven years at medical device giant Ethicon (division of Johnson & Johnson) with the most recent role as US Regional Manager of Strategic Insights and Pricing.  In his seven years at JNJ, he received recognition for his servant leadership, where he was a stand out in performance by being a top 10% recipient of Encore and Inspire Awards over multiple years.  Dozens and dozens of accolades from contributors to senior leaders for his collaborative work.  Prior to Ethicon, Joe has had a wide variety of experiences in medical claims, banking, publishing, and retail.  He began his career at Schaeffer's Investment Research as a financial analyst, where he was ranked by Bridge Information Systems as one of the top 10 market analysts for three straight years for his commentary and stock picks found in Schaeffer's Daily Bulletin. Joe has been published in the Market Pulse Journal and Chartpoint and his market comments have been printed in the USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Dow Jones News Wire, and Reuters. Also, Joe has made appearances on Bloomberg television.