Will the GOP Takeover?

Happy Rosh Hashanah! With less than five weeks to go and a vice presidential candidate debate behind us, let's examine the outlook for the Senate, where the Democrats face challenging electoral terrain. The current makeup is 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 3 Independents. The Independents caucus with the Democrats, giving them a 51-49 majority. Democrats have to defend 23 of the 34 election seats. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. Among the ten seats most likely to flip, only one is held by a Republican. It will be surprising if Democrats retain the majority, even if Harris wins and Tim Walz becomes president of the Senate.

Here are the Democratic seats most likely to change parties:

West Virginia —When newly independent Senator Joe Manchin announced his retirement, he determined the outcome of this race. Manchin won six years ago with less than 50% support, and Trump beat Biden by 39 points in 2020, so I expect GOP Governor Jim Justice to be the Republican's 50th Senator when officials count the votes. After being elected Democrats, both Justice and Manchin fled the party, acknowledging GOP statewide dominance.

Montana—John Tester always faces challenging races in a state Trump has won by double digits twice, and 2024 looks to be another nail-biter. Tester won with only 50.3% of the vote in 2018. GOP financial support and Trump and others appearing with him produced a lead in recent polling for former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.

Ohio -- Despite questionable reproductive-rights comments and personal controversies, 2022 GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno is back to take on Senator Sherrod Brown. Over the last few weeks, Moreno has closed the gap Brown opened over the summer. Already the most expensive congressional race in history, the big question is whether Moreno will deploy more of the personal fortune he made as a car dealer. Republicans are outspending Democrats $235 million to $185 million on the airwaves. Brown will have to outperform the top of the ticket to survive in a state Trump won twice by 8 points.

Pennsylvania -- Senator Bob Casey won reelection in 2018 by over 13 points, and he started this race against 2022 Senate candidate and wealthy hedge fund manager Dave McCormick with a significant lead. Despite Pennsylvania being a swing state, this race appears less tied to the top of the ticket than other presidential battlegrounds. Joe Biden won the state of his birth by a narrow 1.17% margin in 2020, and Trump beat Clinton by 0.72% four years prior. A few weeks out, Pennsylvania is leaning toward Casey, but by only a bit.

Michigan -- In another battleground state, Senator Debbie Stabenow's retirement produced a hotly contested open-seat race between Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers. Slotkin is winning the fundraising and ad-spending battles, but Rogers continues to run a solid campaign and remain close to the polls. In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, but Biden won four years later by 154,188 votes. This race could go either way, and the performance at the top of the ticket will influence the outcome.

Wisconsin—Senator Tammy Baldwin won her 2018 race by 11 points, but Trump won the state by 0.77% in 2020, while Biden won four years later by only 0.63%, a much closer margin than expected. This year, Baldwin faces wealthy real estate executive Eric Hovde, who struggles to get his message through crowded airwaves and whose campaign suffered significant shakeups. Baldwin is favored to hold onto this seat, but outsized spending by Hovde and his wealthy brother's PAC could close the gap in the final weeks.

Nevada -- In her first reelection bid, Senator Jacky Rosen has run a strong race and is outspending her opponent, 2022 candidate Sam Brown. Brown's awkward comments on reproductive rights, along with abortion access being on the ballot in November, has focused Rosen's messaging. Rosen won with a margin of 5% in 2018, while Biden carried the state by 2.39%, a slightly narrower margin than Clinton's 2.42% in 2016, making it one of just six states (along with Washington DC) in which Trump improved upon his 2016 margin. Unlike some other GOP candidates we've highlighted, Brown has no personal fortune to call on in the home stretch, suggesting Rosen is the likely victor.

Arizona -- Since I last wrote on this topic at the start of the year, the DSCC has mainly been successful in pushing moderate candidates onto the ballot, avoiding the extremists who hurt them in 2022. Arizona is the exception, and Kari Lake's inability to moderate will probably cost Republicans a winnable seat this year. In the wake of her disparaging remarks about the late Senator John McCain, Lake is still at war with Meghan McCain and his supporters. Lake is still litigating her loss in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego is the primary beneficiary of the GOP's failure to come together, making him the favorite to take this seat currently occupied by Independent Kyrsten Sinema, who announced her retirement in March. Gallego polls ahead of Harris, and Arizona is one of ten states with reproductive rights on the ballot, which will also boost Gallego's chances. Lake struggles with fundraising, while Gallego has been a juggernaut.

Maryland—Senator Ben Cardin's retirement opened up this seat in a reliably blue state, and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic primary against a wealthy, self-funding opponent. Popular former Republican Governor Larry Hogan is running an impressive but uphill campaign and is outspending Alsobrooks with the help of Maryland's Future PAC, funded by Ken Griffin. Biden beat Trump by 33% in 2020, so I expect Alsobrooks will convince enough voters to support Harris and her in hopes of Democrats retaining the Senate majority.

A single Republican is in my current list of the ten most vulnerable seats:

Texas—Ted Cruz won reelection six years ago by less than three points, and the DSCC got very lucky in recruiting Representative Colin Allred to run this year. Two things have put Cruz on the defensive since his close call against Beto O'Rourke - the Dobbs decision and Cruz's ill-considered trip to Cancun in February 2021 while Texas faced a deadly cold snap. This seat is the best chance for Democrats to hold onto control, and it is slightly more competitive than the Florida Senate race. Allred has outraised Cruz in recent quarters, but Republicans boosted spending through the Club for Growth PAC and Cruz's Truth and Courage PAC, which swamped Allred through Election Day. Trump beat Biden by 5.6%, so Democrats are not investing in Texas at the presidential level. While Cruz is a polarizing figure, picking up those last 3 points in a Republican state in a presidential year will be extremely difficult for Allred.

The battle for the Senate continues to tilt in the Republicans' favor despite the strength of the Harris campaign. I expect Democrats to lose control of the chamber in the 119th Congress but it will remain closely divided. Because Democrats are competitive in nearly all ten races, the GOP will struggle to retain its majority in 2026, especially if Trump is in the White House.