Has a Crystal Ball Ever Been More Cloudy?

If the world was trying to make a martini, it would be filled with the smoke swirling from Covid, climate change, corruption, con artists, self-serving analysts, investment houses, pundits, politicians with fake news, and profit-focused and optimized algorithms thrown in for good measure. Shaken—not stirred. Cloudy? Oy vey! 

What’s a wanna-be Nostradamus to do?

The good news for me is that my Crystal Ball is always cloudy. And I don’t like martinis…bourbon…Maybe that’s why my predictions—divined with healthy doses of skepticism, a generous sprinkling of cynicism, and finally a liberal spoonful of healthy questioning—seem to be more accurate than most. Don’t worry, I always hold myself publicly accountable a year later…go back and keep me honest.

I feel like Professor Marvel, in The Wizard of Oz, putting on my turban, “This is the same magic, genuine, authentic crystal used by the priests of Isis and Osiris in the days of the Pharaohs of Egypt.” You get the picture. Watch the scene, you’ll get an idea of how it all works.

Before I get more specific, I’d like to offer a filter (of sorts) that I think will touch many industries, categories, and even people as the great middle starts to fight back against the far edges in all directions.

1. A back-to-basics culture and movement will start to emerge and define itself. This movement will come from the people who are tired of DIGIBABBLE, Fake News, Incitement, and the lemming marchers following the Pied Pipers (who’d have us believe that only they have the answers and the vision for the future).
2. Meanwhile, the tug of the algorithm will be strong and social media will be flooded with hate and vitriol.
3. Governments will be more intentional about regulation regarding what’s a media channel, what constitutes currency and investment, and what defines antitrust. 
4. The “New Normal” will continue to elude us as the environment remains in flux.

As to specifics…where does one start?

• So-called Big Tech will not recover the stock heights and the valuations that created the hubris and arrogance that has driven so much of our economy and behavior. They will start being judged more for the categories they are in—for example, retail, media, and auto—and real profit will, shockingly, start to actually count.
• Tesla is a great company that helped to catalyze an industry. But are they really more Big Tech than Ford, for example? Be honest. Keep your eyes on the real Big Companies—with huge sales and bases. The recent cold snap in the United States has made it clear that EV performance is not yet there. And I’m not just talking about the hype of autonomous driving and needless deaths; but rather, the simple fact that cold weather is not EV’s friend. There’s lots of work still to do.There will be more EV entries and hybrids, but pure gas is still in the picture. 
• Elon Musk will continue to play and plague us—because he can. And my bet on Twitter? The US election cycle will keep it healthy, fueled by the general news media that needs the drama for its own 24/7 cycle.
• There will be a proliferation of Twitter “killers.” Mastodon will consume us for a while as well as BeReal and others yet to be named. Don’t count anyone out yet, especially not TikTok (challenged as they are and will be by their Chinese roots and connections). 
• Major Brand advertisers will finally admit that Meta and Twitter are not that important, for them, as brand advertising platforms (different than their actual use of social media in more organic or direct ways for the right products and services). They will continue the search for better channels.
• In the same vein, the best and most successful Advertising and PR Agencies that offer a return to basics (see filter #1 above)—that is real marketing ideas—will flourish in what many agency heads are predicting will be a tough year. 
• Streaming will follow the cable model, and we will see more and more bundle offers with more advertising options while we see less mindless content but more quality with better advertising opportunities. In other words, TV for a new era. 
• Speaking of which, the myth of the death of TV will persist, amongst the ignorant, while the open-minded will follow the lead of AMAZON, Google, and Meta and test their way back in like the best DM folks are doing. 
• Faster/cheaper will be seen for the gas-lighting it is. It's not a reason to choose an Ad Agency when the content neighboring the fast/cheap work is the best and most expensively created content ever. Who wants their ads to look like ST next to Yellowstone? Smart/efficient should be the mantra.
• Data always has been and will always be important. Targeting will get better—maybe—but HUMAN INSIGHT will return in force.  
• Programmatic will continue to have a place, but specific publisher deals will gain prominence.
• Out of Home of all sorts will continue to grow, and the smart brands will learn how to use it from the best practitioners and not the DIGIBABBLE crowd.
• VR will not drive our meetings while we sit at the same tables or in the same space, and it won’t replace ZOOM (used in its generic sense), but the right use cases will start taking off. Gaming is an obvious piece of this…no need to predict! AR, like QR codes, will find its level with smart use cases.
• Gaming is not dying; it’s just finding its proper level. Advertising will add importance to the platform (including live events looking for a business model that works), and of course, VR.
• All sorts of live events will continue to get bigger—even movies as more people come back to see great movies and, once again, enjoy the experience of the big screen with a  crowd.
• Big bet here: The hybrid office experience will grow with an expectation of in-office days. The losers will be the companies that continue to waffle and the folks who feel entitled to their gym time whenever they choose. 
• Sports will be as powerful as ever; soon Amazon will charge us for their sports streaming.
• Retail. We can’t forget retail. Stores are not dead, but traffic patterns will morph as we return to the ancient art of retail entertainment. 

Let’s look at AI. 

Try and find the origins of AI…was it Alan Turing and his theories? Was it the Tin Man in the Wizard of OZ? Harvard, Forbes, and a host of writers all place its creation in different times and different places. Who cares? It’s here. My bet is that it will become more useful and used more. Bottom line: this isn’t the year AI replaces you. So, don’t worry. Nevertheless, we will use some of the better applications more and more as they get better and better. My loyal readers read my interview with ChatGPT about itself. I went back to the source to get its view on 2023. Here ya go:

“It's difficult to predict with certainty which tech innovations will be most noteworthy in 2023, as the technology landscape is constantly evolving and new innovations may emerge. However, some areas of technology that may see significant advancements in 2023 include:

1. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning: AI and machine learning technologies are expected to continue to advance and become more widespread in a variety of applications, such as natural language processing, image and video recognition, and predictive analytics.
2. 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT): The deployment of 5G networks is expected to accelerate in 2023, bringing faster and more reliable wireless connectivity to more areas. This will likely lead to further growth and innovation in the IoT space, as more devices are connected to the internet and can communicate with each other.
3. Virtual and augmented reality: These technologies are expected to become more widely adopted in a variety of applications, such as entertainment, education, and training. Advances in hardware, software, and content are expected to make these technologies more accessible and user-friendly.
4. Robotics: Robotics technologies are expected to continue to advance in 2023, with improvements in areas such as mobility, manipulation, and perception. This may lead to the wider adoption of robots in a variety of applications, such as manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare.
5. Quantum computing: Quantum computers, which use principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations, are expected to continue to make progress in 2023 and could potentially lead to significant advances in fields such as drug discovery, financial modeling, and cybersecurity.

These are just a few examples, and there are many other areas of technology that may see significant advancements in 2023. Keep an eye on industry news and announcements to stay up-to-date on the latest developments and innovations in the tech world.”

Interesting to see where we aligned on subjects and where my new friend went to different topics. I skew human; it (pronoun anyone) skews pure tech. 

A few more observations:

• The Kardashians and the Trump/AOC politicians will continue to consume way too much of their share of our air—aided and amplified by all of us and mainstream media.
• There will be more fraud announcements from the Tech world, and we will wonder…please!!!
• Crypto and Blockchain (notice I didn’t even bother above) will not take over our financial systems or company infrastructures. I highly recommend that boards of Public Companies take a look at how much the company spent with consultants on either or both.

I could go on! But alas, that’s enough for now. 

I think my filter is clear. You can apply it, yourself, to anything I might have missed, and if you do, please share. 

I’m committed; let’s see how well I did come December.

What would you add to my cloudy crystal ball? Comment below.