Has Elon's New Robots Meant The Wave Of Fully-Autonomous Robots?

So, when you’re at the Warner Brothers lot, you’re probably expecting to see Conan or Ellen or you’d probably have expected to have run into the cast of Friends or Two And A Half Men or The Big Bang Theory. But, if you’d have gone in October 2024, you’d probably have bumped into Tesla’s humanoid robot: Optimus.

In December 2023, Tesla CEO Elon Musk introduced the Optimus Gen 2, which is said to be able to walk fast, have better hand movements with sensors on its fingers and more. And at an October 2024 event called “We, Robot”, Optimus seemed to have wowed people’s imagination. Elon stated at the event that the Optimus robots would walk amidst attendees. Optimus was said to be able to serve drinks, play rock-play-scissors and even flashed a peace sign, with Elon proclaiming that Optimus would be able to walk a dog, babysit kids, fetch groceries, mow the lawn and more. Some even saw some similarities of the design to the 2004 Hollywood movie “I, Robot” with Willard Smith. And with this presentation, Musk prophesied that this would be the biggest product ever of any kind.

This was announced almost as if it might be the new era of robotics that could revolutionize how people interact with machines.

At the same time, Chinese scientists were said to have presented a humanoid robot called STAR1, which is said to be capable of running at 13 km/hr, which is said to make it one of the fastest humanoid robots on the planet.

But, in the midst of all this, how autonomous was the Optimus? Was it like one of those AI models that was able to interact with people on their own?

Some believed that the robots were controlled by people operating them remotely. One operator seemingly admitted that it was being assisted by a human as it was not yet fully autonomous. In 2021, when the Optimus was initially unveiled, it was said to be a performer in a robot suit, but that may have been done out of humour. There was another time in January 2024, when Elon shared footage of Optimus folding a shirt, but some keen-eyed observers noted there may have been a visible hand, potentially, of a human operator that was not exactly cropped out of the video.

So, is all of this stoking wonder while delaying the innovation for later? Promises can be majestic, but can they be encumbered by current limitations? If true, it’s more than a minor technicality. Full autonomy in robotics would be a major deal. The illusion of it could deceive people into thinking we’re more advanced than we actually are. A remote-controlled robot might be cool in its own right, but it may not be as revolutionary as people think, because teleoperation for robotics is not that new. There may have been times when it’s been used in medical robotics or that scene in The Hurt Locker.

Sometimes, true innovation walks slowly. Even fully autonomous driving seems to not have been fully achieved. Still, low latency remote control can still be celebrated, which is the ability to control something that’s really far without minimal lag between the command and the action. That’s cool.

Now, Elon and Tesla haven’t really responded to these claims yet. Okay, so, maybe the innovation would take a bit more time. 

But, how much would it cost? According to Elon, the Optimus could sell as low as $20,000, which is close to ₹17 lakh. He stated that it would cost half of that to make and the robot would sell in volumes reaching 100 million units a year and he’s of the opinion that this wave of robotics would allow for a future where there’s no poverty. Though, if Optimus reaches an appropriate level of innovation, would there be millions of workers whose jobs would be replaced by Optimus robots? Or does the AI argument apply here that humans would get to play more productive roles?

Elon believes in Optimus so much that he thinks annual earnings from the robot could hit a trillion dollars. With a “T”.

Now, it seems like Elon’s career has been about having grandiose and sweeping promises about the future and working on making it a reality. Think electric cars or colonizing Mars or reusable rockets. Though, some predictions about fully autonomous driving may have been delayed a couple of times. But, if robots could perform tasks, like manual labour or caregiving, could it revolutionize industries the way generative AI might have already started doing that?

And what about India? Compared to Western markets, does India have lower development costs? Could that allow for more robotics solutions in India? With RaaS (Robotics-as-a-Service) in India, could there be subscription models to make robotic systems more accessible to the masses? Because Musk’s $20,000 robot is not something an office worker in India would invest in. But, could that mean that there would be EdTech platforms in India focusing more on robotics training that would get more traction?

It’s said that the value added in manufacturing in India is projected to hit close to $235 billion by the end of 2024. Would we see humanoid robots helping challenges in productivity or operational efficiency? Especially, something like an Indian auto company that relies on human labour for assembly lines. And would the use of robots for elder care be a thing in India?

All of that would depend on the regulations around robotic use in India. That might, also, mean that entrepreneurs could start focusing on cybersecurity measures for robotic systems. And while India is said to be a major IT services hub, would India end up being a source of outsourcing for robotics companies in the West? Will India’s strengths be seen as having low labour costs or a huge talent pool? That would make India more of a service provider, not a leader in robotics innovation. Would India just be known for software development for robotics worldwide? Or would the future be India becoming a bigger global manufacturing hub with a demand for sensors, processors and batteries? While foreign companies may have been reducing their reliance on China for imports, maybe India would end up being the port for the indigenous components for robots & India’s semiconductor landscape would be a bit pleased as well. Maybe, in the software space, there could be AI algorithms to augment robotic perception or movement, which could be licensed to robotics companies around the globe.

And have you heard of precision farming? That’s where tech and data are used to improve the quality and productivity of soil and crops.

But, there could be some inefficiencies there and AI is said to be used to deal with that. Could there be task-specific robots in India to help deal with that? But, there’s a high capital burden even initially for founders to venture into a sector like this and for Indian startups needing funding for this, what would the return on capital and market readiness look like? Is India’s ecosystem mature enough for adoption or commercialization? Or would we have to wait till the 2030s?

And would robots be equipped with sensors, cameras and AI systems to collect data? How would the DPDP feel about that?

Accountability’s another issue. If a robot makes a mistake in a high-stakes environment, who’s responsible? How much would you trust an autonomous system to make split-second decisions that have human lives at stake? 

Right now, maybe the notion that India could become a global leader in humanoid robotics might be a tad bit premature. Sure, there have been some strides in software, but, maybe, the hardware aspect of developing robotics is, somewhat, underdeveloped in India. So, currently, India might be lagging behind countries, like the US, Germany and Japan. Why is it that when something happens, it’s always these three?

So, Elon Musk might currently be fomenting some starry-eyed optimism about humanoid robotics. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. But, when is it time to truly bet on bots?

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