High levels of Dust from Africa have Reduced Hurricane Development,” but BE ALERT to Increased Tropical Activity thru November. Stay Alert & Prepared!
The Summer Season and high level of Airborne Dust from West Africa Combined with High Pressure in the Atlantic, has Suppressed Hurricane Development,” said Expert Larry Wilson, of Premier Forecasting. “These Conditions Will Subside as Fall Arrives, as Storms Coming Off Africa will have a Great Expanse of Warm Ocean Where They can Develop. Despite the Early Lull, this Tropical Season IS NOT OVER”.
Between mid-September and through October, a string of disturbances (known as “tropical waves”) is expected to emerge in the eastern Atlantic and move generally westward. As environmental conditions improve, these waves should develop into healthy tropical depressions, storms and, finally, hurricanes. This more conducive environment began to make its presence known late in August, when two waves – which eventually became Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl – strengthened as they neared the Leeward Island chain.
Both Danielle and Earl are forecast to curve back out to sea and away from land masse, but Wilson said added that the storms may provide a more favorable breeding area for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. “Both storms struggled early with some lingering Saharan dust and wind shear in the eastern Atlantic. But once they cleared those obstacles, both quickly began to organize and strengthen.”
Weather forecasters and emergency managers share concerns about the remainder of the 2022 season. Their main concern is that people along the U.S. east and Gulf of Mexico coasts view the early scarcity of tropical cyclone activity as meaning the danger has passed for this year. This could be a mistake, said Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s top meteorologist.
He pointed out there have been years that spawned as many as 10 named tropical systems after September 1st, and that some of those years shared similarities with the weather pattern over the tropical Atlantic this season. He cautioned that the current tropical cyclone season may not wind down with the ending of October. "I would be very surprised if we don't see one or two storms into November," he added. (The tropical season officially ends on November 30th.)
Another concern is for a late-season burst of tropical activity to impact the U.S. eastern seaboard, especially from the Carolinas to Florida As evidence, experts point to Superstorm [Hurricane] Sandy, which devastated the coastal areas of New Jersey on October 29, 2012, inflicting nearly $70 billion in damages. The final concern are the consequences of a tropical system making its way into the Gulf of Mexico between now and the end of the active season.
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Contact Larry Wilson, at : premierforecasting@outlook.com
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