How will China's meat, egg and milk production, consumption, import and export change in the next 10 years? See MARA's official forecast!

Last week, Xu Wei, Secretary General of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) and a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), released the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2024-2033) at the 2024 China Agricultural Outlook Conference.

Overall situation: production and consumption to maintain growth, imports to increase before decreasing

During the outlook period of the next 10 years, with the optimization and adjustment of the production capacity of live pigs and the stabilization of the basic production capacity of beef and mutton, meat production will achieve stable development, the supply guarantee capacity of meat products will be strengthened, and the overall meat production will be in a growth trend. Meat production is expected to reach 97.64 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 0.4%. The market demand for meat has been steadily released, and meat consumption has maintained growth, with meat consumption reaching 102.53 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 0.3%. With the improvement of residents' income and living standards and the gradual optimization of their dietary structure, the market share of poultry meat, beef and mutton will increase. At the beginning of the outlook period, taking into account the domestic and international price difference of beef and mutton is still obvious, beef and mutton imports are expected to grow slightly, and meat imports are expected to be 6.06 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% over the previous year. The outlook period of the middle and late, with the domestic supply of meat products to gradually improve the level of security, the self-sufficiency rate will steadily increase, imports will show a steady and slightly reduced trend, is expected to 2033 imports of 5.84 million tons, an average annual decrease of 1.4%.

Pork: output showing a steady downward trend, imports decreasing

During the outlook period of the next 10 years, the proportion of large-scale pig farming will gradually rise, the industrial structure will be continuously optimized, the quality of pork and production efficiency will be improved, and the output will generally decline and stabilize at around 54 million tons. Pork production is expected to be 53.86 million tons in 2033, with an average annual decrease of 0.3%. Influenced by factors such as the aging of the population and the upgrading of residents' consumption, total pork consumption declines during the outlook period of that 10-year period. Pork consumption is projected to decline to 54.79 million tons in 2033, a decrease of 5.0 percent from the initial period and an average annual decrease of 0.5 percent. The overall decline in domestic pork consumption demand has led to a decline in demand for pork imports, but there is still a rigid demand for bone-in pork from the population, and there will still be a certain amount of pork imports, which are projected to be 1.07 million tons in 2033.

Poultry meat: production and consumption continue to increase, self-sufficiency rate steadily increased

In the next 10 years, the structure of poultry meat production continues to optimize, the market share of domestic high-quality varieties continues to increase, and the output of poultry meat is expected to grow steadily, and the output is expected to reach 29.05 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. With the increasing level of urbanization, the new generation of consumption habits change, meat and poultry prepared dishes market scale expansion, poultry meat consumption continues to increase, the proportion of meat consumption in the obvious increase, consumption is expected to 29.32 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. Poultry meat production is growing faster than the consumption growth rate, import demand is gradually decreasing, poultry meat imports accounted for the proportion of domestic consumption is generally a declining trend, is expected to 2033 imports of 1.05 million tons, an average annual decrease of 2.6%. Meat and poultry production efficiency, the international competitiveness of products gradually enhanced, poultry meat exports have been growing steadily, is expected to export 780,000 tons in 2033, an average annual growth rate of 2.5%.

Beef and mutton: production and consumption growth, slowing growth in imports

In the next 10 years, with the improvement of the technical level of beef and sheep production, the degree of good breeding, scale, standardization and intelligence, and the enhancement of production and supply capacity, the production of beef and sheep meat will maintain growth. It is expected that in 2033, the output of beef and mutton will be 7.98 million tons and 5.87 million tons respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0% and 1.2% respectively. Taking into account the multiple impacts of the future upgrading of meat consumption structure, the deepening of new urbanization, negative population growth, the growth rate of beef and mutton consumption demand will slow down. It is expected that the consumption of beef and mutton in 2033 will be 11.1 million tons and 6.46 million tons respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2% and 1.4%; the annual per capita consumption of beef and mutton will reach 7.97 kg and 4.64 kg respectively. As the level of self-sufficiency of beef and mutton increases, the external dependence has been reduced and the growth rate of imports has slowed down. Beef and mutton imports are expected to be 3.12 million tons and 590,000 tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9% and 4.0% respectively.

Poultry and eggs: production growth is slowing down, exports continue to grow

In the next 10 years, with high-yield varieties and precision feeding, environmental control, disease prevention and control and other modern equipment and technology are widely promoted and applied, the level of good breeding, large-scale, mechanization of egg and poultry farming continues to improve, the country has gradually established a high-efficiency production, resource-saving, environmentally friendly, rational layout of the breeding pattern, the production capacity of poultry and eggs continue to strengthen, the output of a steady increase, is expected in 2033 will reach 37.16 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7%. People's demand for reasonable diet and nutritional balance of the improvement of per capita consumption of poultry eggs gradually narrowed the space, egg consumption growth will slow down, is expected to be 36.75 million tons of egg consumption in 2033, an average annual growth rate of 0.6%. Poultry egg exports are expected to maintain the growth momentum, is expected to export 240,000 tons in 2033, an average annual growth rate of 5.8%.

Dairy products: continuous growth in production and gradual increase in consumption

In the next 10 years, China's dairy farming scale and yield level will be further improved, and production will keep growing, and milk production is expected to reach 58 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 4.1%. With the increase in income of urban and rural residents and the gradual popularization of the concept of healthy milk drinking, the consumption demand for dairy products has been growing gradually, and it is expected that the consumption will increase by an average annual growth rate of 3.3%, and will reach 79.2 million tons in 2033; and the average per capita consumption of dairy products will reach 56.90 kilograms. In the next 10 years, China's milk supply rate continues to improve, but there is still a rigid demand for dairy imports, imports tend to increase as a whole, is expected to import 21.43 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2%.