Hurricane Beryl Made Landfall on Monday Morning as a Category 4 Hurricane on Grenada's Carriacou Island with Sustained Winds of 150 mph!

RISKAlert #1963   -  July 1, 2024 -  Washington, D.C.

Reports received by ham radio operators stateside described the onset of an ongoing, ferocious storm along the island chain, but a more complete accounting of damage and casualties will take days to complete. At 5:00 am EDT, Beryl was located approximately 200 miles east-southeast of Grenada. It continues to move generally westward at 20 mph and will be entering a region favorable for further strengthening over the next 24-48 hours.

By midweek, when Beryl reaches the western Caribbean it would still be a week away from mainland U.S. soil, the hurricane is expected to encounter vertical wind shear, which would result in some weakening of the storm.  However, model guidance is not in complete agreement with how strong the shear will become, so Beryl’s long-term strength remains uncertain at this time.

Beryl’s track through the tropics appears a bit more predictable.The bulk of track guidance currently keeps the hurricane on a west-northwesterly course through this week, with Beryl approaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday morning. The official National Hurricane Center track has inched a bit south but Beryl is likely to jog back to the north as it nears the Yucatan land mass. Greater track uncertainty arises if Beryl emerges intact from the Yucatan and re-enters the open waters of the Bay of Campeche this weekend.

The models show a host of possible tracks from central Mexico to the northwest Gulf Coast. Accordingly, interests in the Gulf region are encouraged to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl throughout this week and to pay special attention to possible future advisories later this weekend. If Beryl becomes a threat to the U.S., it could occur between July 8 and July 13. But it is too early to know what Beryl will do if it remains in the Gulf.

    An updated advisory on Hurricane Beryl will be issued later this week.

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