Hydraulic Modeling: Engineered for Florida’s Booming Population

Kevin Kennoy , PE, Vice President, Client Service Team Leader

A case study on working smarter and saving resources by leveraging technology to inform project planning and management.

Key Points:

• Population Growth and Infrastructure: Florida’s population is expected to grow by 25% by 2040, putting pressure on water systems. Hydraulic modeling helps plan and upgrade infrastructure to meet this demand.
• Hydraulic Modeling Benefits: Tools like InfoWorks ICM and EPA Swimm assess system capacity and future needs. They help plan changes effectively and save time and money.
• Managing Bottlenecks: Modeling identifies issues in water systems and helps engineers find solutions to ensure infrastructure can handle future growth.

Population growth trends have continued to rise in regional hot spots nationwide since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. In Florida, numbers are expected to grow by more than 25 percent—or 5 million people—between 2020 and 2040¹, increasing demand on water systems that may already be at capacity. Modeling software is crucial to understanding these capacity challenges and, proactively planning innovative infrastructure improvements and developing new systems to eliminate hydraulic “bottlenecks,” fueling smart growth for communities.

In Florida, numbers are expected to grow by more than 25 percent—or 5 million people—between 2020 and 2040¹, increasing demand on water systems that may already be at capacity.

Supporting Infrastructure Using Hydraulic Modeling as Florida Population Surges

Like many Northwest Florida communities, Bay County’s Panama City and Panama City Beach faced significant damage after Hurricane Michael in 2018. Rebuilding the communities would take time to replace homes and businesses in the storm. Two years into the effort, a global pandemic spanned the nation, with lockdowns and restrictions. Florida, however, remained open, spurring a population surge unlike anything the state had experienced – and still occurs today.

This included the development of one of the country’s fastest-growing all-inclusive retirement communities for ages 55 and over in the U.S. – Latitude Margaritaville in Watersound, located near the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport. While regional growth pointed to a robust increase in development in the area, it placed additional strain on water infrastructure that was not fully rebuilt to support it.

Hydraulic modeling software for projects like this is essential for understanding how developments will impact water and wastewater utility systems and the costs associated with expansion. Results can be effectively used to help public utilities comprehend the significant capital investments associated with development, removing the burden for ratepayers with those, often, expensive infrastructure capacity improvements that were not accounted for in development planning. This is a crucial step forward in solving water and wastewater infrastructure capacity challenges as populations trend upward.

Applying Hydraulic Modeling for Accuracy and Long-Term Advantages

Applying hydraulic modeling software to water and wastewater systems is critical for infrastructure planning and management. An accurate and well-calibrated model can positively impact a client or developer's return on investment, making it a go-to for calibrating long-term solutions. Models can also be applied to all types of water systems, such as recycled, freshwater, and wastewater, with accurate results.

Models can also be applied to all types of water systems, such as recycled, freshwater, and wastewater, with accurate results.

While many modeling software options are available, such as InfoWorks ICM and EPA Swimm, all software can provide real-time insights on how existing water infrastructure must be expanded or entirely built from the ground up to accommodate population growth. For instance, modeling evaluates the capacity of existing systems, simulates the impact of growing demand, and simulates solutions to visualize how challenges can be solved to meet specific timelines and needs. Building and testing deficiencies in a drainage system with a computer program is much easier than configuring pipes underground, making modeling an invaluable tool for saving time and money.

Using modeling software has added advantages, including eliminating misinformed, non-collective, and shortsighted infrastructure sizing choices to prevent future capacity issues. Software documents can be easily shared with non-technical stakeholders, and infrastructure capacity decisions can be easily changed or altered when new information is available.

Visualizing Infrastructure Using Hydraulic Modeling Software

Conveniently located near the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport in Panama City and Florida’s scenic 30A corridor, Latitude Margaritaville is a fast-growing retirement community contributing to the state’s upward growth projection. The development is also a prime example of how to proceed in planning when the strain on existing water infrastructure is so severe that new facilities must be built to support the 4,500 homes that come with it. Water professionals can use hydraulic modeling software for planning analysis to visualize the impact on infrastructure, creating solutions for phased support as the population grows. Exploring how much a regional utility can pump before the system reaches capacity and how it can pace development until a solution is in place prompts valuable feedback that contributes to proactive planning decisions for the long term.

Water professionals also used hydraulic modeling to visualize the impact in planning for the new $12 million, 30-acre Southport Sports Complex in Bay County, Florida. Modeling visualization highlighted areas of the infrastructure in green, yellow, and red to represent stages of capacity and to show how updates can be phased in to meet capacity until a new treatment plant is needed. As part of the solution, the team repurposed effluent into public access to reuse water to irrigate the baseball fields and maintain landscaping, promoting sustainability.

Overcoming Bottlenecks with Hydraulic Modeling

When water or wastewater flow becomes constrained, hydraulic bottlenecks can form. This can lead to reduced pipe capacity, increased pressure, and other operational inefficiencies caused by issues with pipe diameter, pipe roughness, pipe blockages, pipe network, layout pump capacity, and hydraulic gradient. Identifying these bottlenecks is essential for ensuring efficient and effective water system operation. Ignoring them can cause development interruptions or state and federal consent forms to face fines.

Hydraulic modeling helps us visualize the impact of bottlenecks so engineering professionals can better understand challenges and optimize solutions that fit the client’s needs. Modeling can simulate options for consideration and show us their implications. Feedback is generated from questioning scenarios like whether to expand the pipe diameter or, re-route water flow within the system, expand the existing plant, or build a new site. If the piping diameter is sized for a specific demand, it begs the question, “How much can it be changed before negatively impacting water pressure?” The ability to ask these scenarios through modeling provides data-driven insights for informed decision-making.

Stewarding the Next Generation With Hydraulic Modeling 

Hydraulic modeling is fast becoming the growth management tool for not only large utility systems but also smaller systems. It assists water and wastewater system operators in discovering unknown hydraulic capacity issues while anticipating new ones before they occur. This is a move from traditional reactive decision-making to more of a predictive modeling scenario. The innovative software empowers water professionals to make smarter decisions, optimize water networks, and enhance overall infrastructure resilience. Using hydraulic modeling to support infrastructure demands for today’s growing populations is destined to serve critical purposes in the realm of water infrastructure, playing a vital role in shaping the future for the next generation.

About the Author

Kevin Kennoy , PE, has over 32 years of municipal potable water and wastewater system infrastructure improvement experience throughout the Southeast, including master planning, modeling, design, bidding, and construction services. His hydraulic modeling expertise spans 20 years in developing potable water models in some of the most challenging hydraulic and water flow management geographies in the U.S., including eastern Kentucky, using early software tools KYPIPE, KYPIPE2000, and EPANET. Kevin currently serves as principal-in-charge for Barge Design Solutions ’ Bay County, Florida, projects, including the ongoing potable water/wastewater hydraulic model, and for the City of Crestview, Florida, wastewater and potable water hydraulic model development and master planning projects.

References

¹ Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, March 2021 and the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida Population Studies, Volume 54, Bulletin 189, April 2021