Innovative research needed to reduce hurricane risks

New Center for Ocean Leadership marks important step toward greater collaboration

By UCAR President Antonio Busalacchi and incoming UCAR Board Chair Shuyi Chen

This hurricane season served as another grim reminder of the costly and often fatal toll of these powerful storms. Of the three hurricanes to hit the United States, Fiona knocked out power to all of Puerto Rico and killed more than two dozen people, while Nicole caused millions of dollars of damage to Florida’s east coast. It was Ian, however, that not only levied the greatest impacts but also exposed troubling gaps in our preparedness systems that must be addressed, especially as more powerful storms and rising sea levels associated with climate change pose increased risks to life and property.

In the days following Hurricane Ian’s initial Florida landfall, the toll from the historic storm became increasingly apparent, with more than 100 confirmed deaths and damage expected to exceed $50 billion. Despite vast advances in forecasting technologies, the hurricane was Florida’s deadliest since the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which had struck unsuspecting communities in an era before satellites and computer weather models.

With Ian’s destruction, five out of the last six years, including 2022, rank among the 10 most costly Atlantic hurricane seasons in history. This raises a pressing question for those of us in the research community: what more can scientists do to better protect residents in harm’s way from such powerful hurricanes? We believe the solution must include more accurate and relevant forecasts that focus on potential impacts, as well as more effective communication of those forecasts. This will require researchers from multiple fields pooling their expertise in an increasingly interdisciplinary approach — no easy task for specialties that have evolved independently.

 An issue that has become painfully obvious is that current forecasts, while remarkably successful in helping to protect life and property, are not good enough. Our coastlines have become so densely populated that even a 70-mile deviation in a hurricane’s track between cities such as Tampa and Port Charlotte has implications for several million inhabitants. Although three-day track forecasts are more than twice as reliable than 20 years ago, with an average error of less than 80 miles, they have not achieved the accuracy needed to pinpoint landfall along a heavily developed coastline. 

Forecasting Ian proved particularly challenging, with computer models initially splitting over whether Ian was headed for the Florida Panhandle or closer to Tampa and then failing to fully anticipate its increased size and power as it neared landfall. The uncertainty, tragically, led many residents in Fort Myers and other communities on the state’s southwest coast to assume they were safe until it was too late to evacuate. At the same time, the storm’s counterclockwise winds sucked water out of Tampa Bay, surprising residents who had expected a surge and leaving boats temporarily lying on the exposed seafloor.  

 This leads to another issue: communicating the potential hazards of a hurricane. Studies show that residents often pay too much attention to the “cone of uncertainty,” even though tropical cyclones veer from the cone about one-third of the time. People also focus on a hurricane’s category, which is based on maximum sustained winds, rather than other factors that often correlate more directly with damage, such as the size and forward speed of a storm, heavy rainfall, extreme ocean surface waves, and surge.

Social science research, based on surveys of residents to see how they make decisions in response to forecasts and evacuation orders, suggests the need to put more emphasis on predicting impacts rather than weather. The traditional forecast of a hurricane’s maximum sustained winds is less useful to those in a storm’s path than a forecast that details the potential results of peak gusts, surge, and flooding in specific locations.

 Both these challenges — improving forecasts and communicating them better — could be met by breaking down traditional research silos to encourage more collaborations among scientists from different disciplines. Achieving a full understanding of the threats from storm surge and inland flooding, for example, requires contributions from at least four separate specialties: meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, and civil engineering. Unfortunately the culture, education, and funding structures of these disciplines do not currently overlap at all. Moreover, determining how best to communicate the risks to diverse populations may require contributions from experts in additional fields, such as sociology, cultural geography, and communications, which exist within their own silos.

This fall saw a notable step toward greater collaboration. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which has long served a vital role in supporting meteorological research, assumed oversight in October of programs previously run by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership that had been cornerstones of Earth and ocean literacy. This union, resulting in the new Center for Ocean Leadership at UCAR, marks an historic partnership between the oceanic and atmospheric science communities and offers the promise of new and innovative collaborations for the benefit of society. Already, hydrologists with expertise in precipitation are reaching out to their colleagues in the ocean community to work on better understanding the impacts of storm surge and flooding on coastal landscapes and infrastructure.

Creating the necessary conditions to foster more interdisciplinary collaborations will require innovative leadership by Congress, funding agencies, and leaders of the scientific community. Such a transformative change will not be easy, and it will rely on considerable initiative to overcome structural challenges and determine strategic financial investments. The effort, however, is essential for improving forecasts and better communicating them to those in harm’s way at a time when our densely populated coastlines are becoming more vulnerable to rising seas and powerful storms fueled by a warming climate. Only with interdisciplinary science can we tackle the major questions about the world around us and help society become more resilient in the face of increasingly dangerous hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Antonio J. Busalacchi is the president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a nonprofit consortium of 120 colleges and universities focused on research and training in the Earth system sciences. 

Shuyi S. Chen is a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington and the incoming chair of the UCAR Board of Trustees.