Inside the Science: How Weather Forecasting Services are Evolving

The global weather forecasting services market is propelled by several factors. The rising intensity and frequency of natural disasters like typhoons, hurricanes, and floods in the past few years has amplified the demand for accurate weather forecasts. In 2023, there were 421 natural disasters worldwide that highlighted an urgent need for precise predictions about climate change.

The economic structure of the weather forecasting services ecosystem is still evolving, and a report by Astute Analytica projects that the global weather forecasting services market is expected to reach a market size of US$ 11.6 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 12.6% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2032.

Moreover, it is anticipated that the usage of such advanced technologies as artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, or machine learning (ML) in this field will also contribute to its development. For instance, medium-range weather forecasting accuracy has been significantly enhanced via employment with 3D neural networks. Also, another factor propelling upmarket revenue is the rapid growth in precision agriculture adoption rate. Wherein, timely information on weather necessities helps optimize crop yields. By the end of 2023, the precision agriculture market generated a revenue of more than US$ 11 billion, which indicates a rising dependence on exact prediction methods based on dedicated meteorological data.

A brief about the market: -

Apart from this, the aviation sector is another substantial driver of the weather forecasting services market. Smooth flight operations require to have precise forecasts. In 2023, the global aviation industry noticed air traffic rise to 38 million flights, which additionally augmented the demand for dependable information about climate conditions. Likewise, maritime sectors rely heavily on accurate weather forecasting as they shipped more than 11.5 billion tons of cargo in 2023 alone since safety at sea mainly relies on understanding weather circumstances.

Besides these two sectors, there are also others like renewable energy which heavily depend on weather forecasts; For instance, 3,372 gigawatts of electricity were produced in 2023 globally via green sources which mostly come from wind farms and solar panels — both need good predictions too. These certain demands, therefore, suggest that there will still be growth in demand for weather forecast services.

Growing Demand for Accurate Weather Predictions to Mitigate Climate Risks

With the growing severity and occurrence of violent weather circumstances, accurate weather prediction services are becoming significant in the global weather forecasting services market. In 2023 alone, the US suffered losses of US$ 22 billion mostly linked to unfavorable weather calamities and conditions, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Also, over the last 50 years, the number of natural disasters worldwide has grown five-fold, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

This dramatic uptick in extreme weather events underscores an urgent requirement for exact forecasts that can help people get ready for them as well as decrease their impact—between 2000 and 2019 losses from climate-related catastrophes amounted to US$ 2.56 trillion which was revealed by the Global Climate Risk Index study. Therefore, businesses like aviation, agriculture, maritime industries, etc., must invest heavily in this technology so they do not suffer too many setbacks or lose too much money due to bad weather interrupting their functions. For instance, enhanced predictions could save the agricultural sector alone up to US$ 30 billion per year in America says the American Meteorological Society.

Moreover, the demand for the weather forecasting services market has been rising every day due to the heightened accuracy and dependability brought by technology. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into predictive models has made forecasting 20% more precise within the past decade alone.

Furthermore, it is estimated that the global weather forecasting services market will grow during the forecast period between 2024 and 2032, eventually hitting US$ 11.68 billion in size by the end of 2032. This growth can be attributed to the wider availability of real-time data streaming from more than 10,000 different weather stations scattered across the globe as well as augmented deployment numbers for 3,000 plus satellites used in meteorology around the world today.

Integration of AI and Big Data in Weather Forecasting Services

A disruptive trend that is turning around the weather forecasting services market is the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics. The AI segment of this industry was worth US$ 200 million in 2023 and is estimated to keep growing at a significant growth rate of 25.1% in the years to come. Weather forecasts can be made more timelier and more accurate when AI algorithms process huge amounts of meteorological data. IBM’s GRAF system, for instance, delivers hourly updates on a kilometer-scale resolution as opposed to the conventional 12-kilometer resolution.

Also, big data analytics make it possible for other types of information sources like satellite images radar data IoT sensors, etc., to be integrated thus refining the accuracy and granularity levels in weather forecasting even further than before. It was found by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) that their studies utilizing AI models reduced forecast errors by 25% when compared to conventional methods.

Moreover, the usage of AI and big data is advancing rapidly in the weather forecasting services market thanks to the growing amount of meteorological information produced each day. About 463 exabytes of data will be generated daily by 2025, according to the World Economic Forum, a great deal of which will pertain to weather. This means being able to analyze and understand this data as it comes in becomes more significant than ever if people want accurate and timely forecasts.

For instance, Copernicus – the European Union’s Earth observation program – runs over 8 petabytes worth of environmental records yearly which are then utilized for everything from disaster prevention to agricultural planning. Also, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) found that AI-powered weather predictions can augment renewable energy efficiency by 15%. These are only some possibilities brought about by progressions made thus far in AI as well as Big Data.

Recent Launches: -

In 2024, India's space program launched INSAT-3DS, a next-generation weather satellite, and revolutionized the country's meteorological capabilities. The powerful GSLV-F14 rocket, INSAT-3DS pledges to be a game-changer for weather forecasting and disaster management. Like a refined eye in the sky for the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), INSAT-3DS monitored India's weather patterns and land-ocean surfaces. This is anticipated to generate and deliver vital data for different services like telecommunications, broadcasting, and most importantly, meteorology and disaster preparedness.

INSAT-3DS will be the seventh flight of the Indian National Satellite System (INSAT) series of satellites, building on the triumph of existing satellites like INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3D. Being the largest domestic communication system in the Indo-Pacific region, these satellites are fitted with payloads for meteorological imaging and for picking up distress signals over a substantial portion of the planet. The INSAT-3DS promises to deliver uninterrupted services and significantly improved abilities over its predecessors.

In 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) established panchayat-level weather forecasts on January 15 to deliver weather information directly to the farmers in every gram panchayat. The panchayat-level weather forecasts will be available in 12 Indian languages, including Odia. The IMD marks its 150th year of service to the nation, commencing from January 15, 2024, to January 15, 2025.

The IMD will complete 150 years on January 15, 2025, as the principal government agency in all matters connecting to meteorology and allied subjects. Meanwhile, celebrating the IMD for issuing timely forecasts of weather events such as cyclones that enabled save lives, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar said that the IMD’s impact extends beyond the borders as neighboring countries also depend on its expertise, as “evidenced” during cyclone ‘Mocha’. Mr Dhankhar said. He also added that the MeT department is touching every life, be it farmers farming the land or jawans guarding the borders.

In 2022, The Centre on the 147th foundation day of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) launched operations of four new Doppler weather radars, one each in Chennai, Leh, Mumbai, and Delhi, to further enhance the weather forecast system in these cities/regions. It also announced to utilization of "drone-based observation technology" in a big way in the future for strengthening localized forecasting across the country.

Besides, the Met department on the occasion also established multiple other initiatives including a dedicated website for aviation weather services, geospatial services for extreme weather monitoring & forecasting to allow users for better decisions, a climate hazards, and vulnerability atlas, and a “crowdsourcing mobile app” - Public Observation - for different weather services.

Closing Note: -

The evolution of weather forecasting services reflects a dynamic landscape propelled by technological advancements and growing global challenges. As natural disasters become severe and more frequent, the demand for accurate predictions has escalated, spurring significant growth in the market. Forecasting precision has been revolutionized by creations like artificial intelligence and big data analytics, improving capabilities across sectors from aviation to agriculture.