Insights from the CEO Breakfast by BPCC - economic outlook

The British Polish Chamber of Commerce (BPCC) organized a meeting focused on the economic outlook for Poland in 2024, this time in the sky-high offices of CMS in Varso Tower. According to the panelists, there is a lot of uncertainty but the overall outlook is positive. Read my summary below.

Witold Orłowski – Chief Economic Advisor in PwC

In his introduction, the professor mentioned a lot of geopolitical uncertainty but predicted a good year overall. Inflation could raise from the current 6,1% to 8-9% in the 2nd part of 2024. Unemployment would be close to zero so finding talent will be one of the biggest challenges. We can expect 2-3% GDP growth vs 0-1% in the EU and US.

Adam Uszpolewicz – former CEO of Aviva in Poland and Board Advisor in BPCC

Expertly moderated the discussion to let us get the most valuable insights form the panelist.

Andrzej Pośniak – Managing Partner at CMS

Spoke about the political situation in Poland comparing it to that of 2 fighters with no referee: the winner takes it all. One of the fighters has been fighting for the lsat years on the verge or outside of legality. The other has now a choice of fighting fair and bringing back best standard – risking losing the fight. Or adapting and winning - but sacrificing values and integrity along the way. The new government should provide stable, reliable, predictable, transparent regulations - even if they will not be optimal at first. We should strive for strong state institutions.

Agnieszka Gajewska – Partner, Global Government & Public Services Leader at PWC

Focused her part on the Poland’s recovery & resilience plan (Krajowy Plan Odbudowy – KPO) worth EUR 60 bln – she believes we will get this money in the end. Poland proposed 3 supermilestones in the plan and they remain unchanged in the revised version. They are linked to strengthening important aspects of the independence of the Polish judiciary and the use of Arachne, an IT tool that supports Member States in their anti-fraud activities. The challenge will be to spend it wisely in the remaining period of time.

Michal Slawski, FCCA – Administration & Finance Director at Castorama

Spoke about the new ESG reporting requirements as well as the new invoicing system that will need to be implemented by companies. He divided the latter into 3 stages to achieve success: preparation including assessments, good execution based on project management, continuous improvement. 2023 was a difficult year for retail, 2024 will be good. Lowering interest rates are already impacting the consumer confidence index.

Joanna Romanczuk – CEE Market Head, Regional Director Poland & Ukraine at TMF

The struggle to find the best talent continues. The new generation has a different mindset and approach and we have to adapt to them, embrace them, find ways to engage with them. They may decide to work in a corporation for some time and then move to Costa Rica to become bartenders, it is a fact of life. The labour market is complex. The wage arbitrage between Poland and EU shrinking but Poland is still attractive to investors.

Elżbieta Pełka, FRSA, FCIM – CEO of Pełka & Partnerzy and Board Member at BPCC

She spoke on behalf of the Board of the British Polish Chamber of Commerce, which represents and 267 companies in Poland and 25% of foreign direct investment in the country. The largest members employ more than 200,000 people. Our BPCC public affairs groups are focused on building more relations with the government and facilitating more discussion on legislation, ensuring we have transparency and impact.

From my side I can add that securing the right talent to fuel Poland's further growth should be a top item on both commercial organizations' and the new government's agendas. Building a professional leadership structure based on merit needs to be a focus. Meritocracy and hiring based on skills was mentioned multiple times during the elections. The executive search sector is therefore looking forward to supporting the government in recruiting for key roles in the 421 stated owned companies to boost economic growth and further build our role in the region.

I am proud to serve on the Board of the British Polish Chamber of Commerce (BPCC) with Aneta Jozwicka , Michał Obiegała , Pawel Swietochowski , Dariusz Kucharski, Elżbieta Pełka, FRSA, FCIM, my role being that of Board Advisor, alongside Adam Uszpolewicz.