Insights from the Trail - 10/2/23
In markets this week –
Powell said the disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun in the US…but it has a long way to go. Lowe provided more hawkish than expected commentary in Australia following a 25bp interest rate rise.
And the US retail investor is back. They have turned bullish for the first time since last April. According to Barrenjoey, the percentage of retail investors with a bearish view over the next six months fell to 25%, the lowest since November 2021.
All eyes are now focused on the US CPI print coming out next Tuesday night Aussie time.
Uber is showing that unprofitable tech could in fact become profitable, after reporting its strongest quarter on record. They expect to become profitable this year.
But the party may be over for balloons. Experts are labelling it ‘helium shortage 4.0’ as helium prices skyrocket. The increased prices of the gas have pushed Party City into bankruptcy!
Three other things that got the team talking this week –
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The BP result caught our attention this week. As well as upgrading their long-term energy prices following the impacts of the Ukraine war, they also signaled a more balanced focus on investment between transition energy, and oil and gas. The company said, “we are growing our investment into our transition and, at the same time, growing investment into today’s energy system....It’s what governments and customers are asking of companies like us.”
2. Job juice…
Jobs have been a hot topic throughout reporting season. It’s interesting to consider that, according to Goldmans, roughly 15% of companies in the S&P 500 have seen headcount increases of 40% or more since the start of the pandemic, and only one-fifth of them have announced layoffs so far. Closer to home, Boral announced in their result that voluntary turnover remains high, at 19%. Up from 17% at 30 June 2022, reflecting the continuation of the tight job market.
3. Super bowled…
The global economy may be slowing, but no one has told Super Bowl advertisers. Fox Corp.’s average ad price for the event on Monday is over $6.5 million, in line with NBC from last year. But with multiple 30-second spots going for a record $7 million, the average may settle closer to $6.8 million, according to Bloomberg. Sold-out ad inventory, surging sports bets, and expectations for strong ratings are all helping support the ad prices. Over 58 million Americans are projected to bet on the game. Lets go Eagles!