Intelligence Report: Middle East Developments 25/12/2024.

Date: December 24, 2024

I. Political Reorganization in Syria

1. Formation of New Government Structures:

-Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's de facto leader, has consolidated former rebel factions under the defense ministry.

- Former rebel leaders and officers who defected from Bashar al-Assad's army are included in this restructuring.

- Murhaf Abu Qasra, a key figure in the insurgency, has been appointed as the defense minister in the interim government.

2. Commitments to Stability:

- Sharaa has assured Western officials that the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which he leads, will avoid revenge acts against the former regime and will not oppress any religious minorities.

II. International Relations and Cooperation

1. Syria-Turkey Relations:

- Discussions on a maritime demarcation agreement are planned once a permanent government is established in Syria.

- Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has expressed intentions to enhance bilateral relations in trade, energy, and defense sectors.

- Turkey's foreign minister emphasized the exclusion of Kurdish militants from Syria's future and has discussed security issues regarding U.S.-allied Kurdish groups with Syrian leaders.

2. Energy Cooperation Initiatives:

- Turkey and Syria are discussing potential energy collaborations, particularly in addressing Syria's electricity shortages.

- A Turkish delegation is set to visit Syria to explore energy cooperation further.

3. Engagement with Other Regional Players:

- Russia maintains direct contact with HTS and expresses intentions to sustain its military bases in Syria to support ongoing international counterterrorism efforts.

- Qatar shows readiness to invest in Syria’s energy sector and ports, indicating wider Arab world engagement with Syria’s new administration.

- The IMF is prepared to assist in Syria’s reconstruction, though it notes that the situation remains fluid and contacts with Syrian authorities have been minimal since 2009.

III. Geopolitical Dynamics and Military Involvement

1. Military Commitments by Russia:

- Russia aims to preserve its naval and air bases in Syria, reinforcing its strategic foothold in the region.

2. Support from Ukraine:

- Syrian rebels received significant support from Ukrainian intelligence, including drones and operators, which played a role in the recent changes in Syria’s political landscape.

IV. Developments in Nuclear Monitoring

1. Iran’s Nuclear Program:

- Iran agrees to heightened inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site, following an increase in uranium enrichment activities.

Conclusion:

Turkey's actions in Syria, particularly in establishing energy cooperation and maritime agreements, can be viewed as part of a broader strategy to extend its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This aligns with Turkey's previous actions in Libya, where it has also sought to establish a favorable geopolitical stance through military and economic engagements.

By capitalizing on the new Syrian administration's energy needs and the country's overall vulnerability post-conflict, Turkey could strengthen its geopolitical leverage not only in Syria but across the Eastern Mediterranean.

Such movements are strategic in securing energy resources and expanding Turkey's influence, which might also serve to buffer against regional rivals and secure maritime routes and energy corridors.

Egypt’s concerns about the delineation of exclusive economic zones (EEZ) are particularly pertinent given the tensions around maritime boundaries and natural resources in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Egypt has historically been proactive in forming regional alliances to counterbalance Turkey's influence, as seen in its cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, among others.

This aligns with Egypt's broader strategy to not only secure its maritime and energy interests but also to position itself as a pivotal maritime and military power in the region.

Egyptian navy could exert pressure on Syrian shores, especially on ports such as Lattakia or Tartus, in order to prevent an illegal delimitation of EEZ between Turkey and Syria, which could violate the international law of the Sea, harming the interests of Egypt.