Situation Report 3/12/2024 Syria Front

Rebel forces have captured at least ten areas previously under the control of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in northwestern Aleppo province.

Advancing nearly 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Aleppo city, they have approached the vicinity of Nubl and Zahra, two Shi'ite towns known for the strong presence of Hezbollah militias, backed by Iran, according to an army source.

The Syrian terrain offers limited room for maneuvering due to its sparse physical cover. Armies often focus on fortifying specific locations—whether villages, towns, or cities—to maintain their positions.

Conducting a successful offensive in such conditions requires identifying vulnerabilities in enemy defenses.

The rebels appear to have exploited a strategic gap, likely informed by recent intelligence, particularly following Israeli strikes on Iranian forces and Hezbollah positions, which weakened their foothold. This prompted the rebels to launch their attack in Aleppo province.

Amid these developments, Turkish social media platforms have engaged in psychological operations aimed at influencing perceptions of the conflict. These efforts have included:

• Ethnic maps highlighting Turkish populations in key areas such as Aleppo, Homs, and even extending to Mosul and Kirkuk within Kurdish territories.

• Messaging targeting Iranian militias, emphasizing that the Quds Force’s primary objective is Jerusalem, not Aleppo.

In this context, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the unfolding situation in Syria underscores the need for the Syrian government to reconcile with its opposition. Turkey, he added, is ready to facilitate dialogue between the two sides.

Meanwhile, open-source reports indicate the movement of Shia militias from Iraq to Syria to bolster Assad’s forces. However, sources suggest that Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, does not currently plan to send additional fighters to northern Syria.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed confidence in Syria's military capabilities against the rebels but noted that "resistance groups will assist, and Iran will provide any necessary support," signaling Tehran’s ongoing backing of regional militias.

Iran seeks to secure key corridors in northern Syria, vital for maintaining weapon supply lines to the Quds Force in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Losing control of these routes would compel Iran to retreat to Iraqi territory, significantly diminishing its ability to project power in Syria and support Assad's regime.

These corridors hold immense strategic value for Iran, serving as a linchpin for its influence in the region. Notably, the majority of Iran's military bases in Syria are concentrated in Aleppo province, underscoring the area's importance. The Turkish-backed forces’ offensive appears aimed at disrupting this balance of power, pressuring Assad’s regime into negotiations by challenging Iran's foothold in the region.

Meanwhile, Saudi reports have alleged that Assad has reached out to Israel for support against the rebels. In exchange, Israel reportedly demanded the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria and outreach efforts to the Kurds.

Concurrently, the United States and the UAE have reportedly discussed lifting sanctions on Syria, contingent on Assad distancing himself from Iran and halting weapons transfers to Hezbollah.

Israeli sources warn that the potential collapse of the Assad regime could lead to chaos, with significant security implications.

Strategic weapon systems, including remnants of Syria’s chemical arsenal, could fall into the hands of extremist rebel groups. Despite being adversaries of Assad and Iran, these groups remain hostile toward Israel.

An Israeli official stressed the country’s vigilance, stating, “We are closely monitoring developments in Syria and are prepared for any scenario.”