ITK Daily | March 24
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
EU seals deal to send Ukraine 1M ammo rounds: Politico reports the deal represents a landmark moment for the EU, which will be empowered to help negotiate arms contracts for the first time.
Reuters: Ukraine says Russia's Bakhmut assault loses steam, counterstrike coming soon
WP: Russia is shipping very old tanks west, signaling shortage in Ukraine
Xi just bought himself a headache in Moscow: As the Chinese leader will soon discover, having sway over Vladimir Putin doesn’t necessarily mean having leverage over him. Minxin Pei
+ How long can the bromance last?
+ Xi Jinping’s powwow with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin this week was no summit of equals.
+ Despite today’s vastly different circumstances, the geopolitical interests of China and Russia are nearly identical to those of China and the Soviet Union in the 1950s. Then, as now, both powers were bound by their shared fear and resentment of American dominance.
+ The first area where differences are likely to spill into the open is in deciding how confrontational they should be toward the West.
+ A final challenge may be the feeding and care of national egos. Both China and Russia are great powers that jealously guard their sovereignty and self-image.
World Bank says Ukraine needs $411 billion to rebuild: NYT reports the bank released the figure while Volodymyr Zelensky visited Kherson. Meanwhile, European Union leaders vowed to send Kyiv one million artillery shells.
Germany and France steal the show — again: There’s the official agenda for EU leaders on Thursday. Then there’s the German and French drama agenda. Politico
+ Germany’s coalition government can’t stop bickering. France is a country in revolt. And the EU’s two biggest countries are bringing their baggage to Brussels.
Emmanuel Macron faces 200 protests across France over pension changes: Guardian reports police gear up for march of hundreds of thousands in Paris as anger grows over president’s ‘arrogance.’
Macron denounces violent protests, warning against ‘excesses’: NYT reports President Emmanuel Macron of France, in his first remarks since pushing through a rise in the retirement age, was firm and unapologetic.
France strikes intensify as anger mounts against raising retirement age: WP reports protesters in Paris blocked access to a terminal at France’s busiest airport as workers around the country went on strike over President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to raise the retirement age.
Pension reform protests: 'The problem, is Macron does not hear. So if he wants things to blow up, they will blow up': The ninth day of national action brought out demonstrators in cities across France. The protests were marked by a greater presence of young people and more violence than previously. The president was the focus of widespread discontent. Le Monde
+ Word on the street:
"Louis XVI, Louis XVI, we decapitated him. Macron, Macron, we can do it again"
"The government, you're going to blow up"
"Macron resign"
"Macron, if you think you're a king, the guillotine will be waiting for you"
Pension reform: A political crisis revealing France's democratic divide: Emmanuel Macron's decision to bypass Parliament to pass a contested pension reform has rekindled government mistrust and a feeling of disconnection between voters and a vertical form of power. Matthieu Goar
+ For the past few days, effigies and portraits of French President Emmanuel Macron have been burned across the country.
+ "We are at the peak of a phenomenon of disconnection between political elites and voters and there is a growing opposition between institutional legitimacy and popular sovereignty"
+ "The Fifth Republic will soon be 65 years old but it is not out of breath, there are windows to open so that citizens can express themselves. I would love to see a few changes in the Constitution solve this problem," Levade added. "But the Constitution is not a straitjacket. It's like a score: Sometimes it depends on the quality of the musicians who play it."
The end of Boris Johnson: At the Commons privileges committee, the former PM’s murderers came armed with smiles. Tanya Gold
Is it really over for BoJo?
+ Boris Johnson’s political career ended on Wednesday, with stuttering and fake politesse.
+ If Johnson once coasted on the times, now he is cursed by them. Britain has a new seriousness and a new PM: In politics, a bookie is followed by a bishop, to borrow the journalist Malcolm Muggeridge’s famous phrase. (I’m not including Liz Truss, who is owed a special category of her own.)
Why No. 10 fears Boris’s banishment Katy Balls
+ "If he was six feet under in a coffin, he’d still have ambitions of a comeback"
+ The stakes are high. If Johnson is found guilty of knowingly misleading parliament, he could be the first former prime minister in history to be forced out in a ‘recall’ petition.
+ No. 10’s strategy is to pitch Sunak as a fresh face – so the next election would be about the first Sunak term, not a fifth Tory term.
Bloomberg: Israel passes first bit of judicial plan as thousands in streets protest
+ Supreme Court has less power to declare the premier incapacitated.
+ Opposition leader: Netanyahu again takes care of himself.
Netanyahu vows to push through judicial overhaul amid nationwide protests: WP reports in the face of unprecedented backlash, Israel’s ruling coalition has pressed forward with the legislation, which would give the government more power to override Supreme Court decisions and select judges.
How a fake Hindu nation scammed its way across America Matt Stieb
Amazing.
+ At this point, close to 30 U.S. cities have signed some sort of acknowledgement of Kailasa.
North Koreans are at growing risk of starvation: Reports of terrible hunger are emerging from the closed-off state. Economist
It’s not just TikTok: French also warn against WhatsApp, Instagram: Politico reports this week top members of France's National Assembly strongly encouraged fellow MPs to "limit" their use of social media apps and messaging services.
UK parliament bans TikTok from its network: Politico reports the move comes after the social media app was banned on all UK government devices last week.
What the hell is wrong with TikTok? The Chinese app famous for dancing teenagers has got Western officials in a spin over allegations of espionage and addiction. Politico
TikTok fight rocks US-China relations: WSJ reports lawmakers press app’s CEO over Chinese ties at a tumultuous hearing; Beijing says it will fight forced sale.
TikTok faces uncertain future after 5-hour congressional thrashing: WP reports Biden administration officials acknowledge they do not have the legal authority to ban the popular app without congressional action, according to one person with knowledge of discussions.
The TikTok CEO has an awful day in front of Congress Matt Stieb
+ Chew spent all morning handling lawmakers’ pointed questions about TikTok’s data-collection practices and potential national-security concerns regarding the app’s alleged connection to the Chinese government.
TikTok CEO grilled by US lawmakers over China ties: Shou Zi Chew is told the app doesn't embrace American values, should be banned. Nikkei
China says it opposes forced sale of TikTok: WSJ reports Biden administration demands that video app divest itself from its Chinese parent or face a US ban.
A TikTok ban might be a win for China. There’s a better way. WP - Editorial
+ A congressional hearing with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew on Thursday at times seemed more like performance art than serious legislative oversight.
+ If TikTok can’t operate here, can any social media service originating in China? The implications of a “no” here are vast.
+ Cutting off a service that 150 million people in this country use, whether to watch lip-syncing videos, hype their small businesses or share news, might look like a blow to China in the short run.
+ Yet it would be a victory for that country’s philosophy of techno-nationalism and a defeat for an open world and open web.
+ If the White House does try to ban TikTok, it will owe citizens — users of the platform and non-users alike — a good explanation.
Insight | My hot take on the TikTok hearing
Geopolitics is disrupting every business.
Just ask TikTok and Shou Zi Chew.
Even so, my first impression is that TikTok will keep operating in America for some time mainly because there is no one reason to ban, limit, or halt its operation - Congress has 20 reasons.
In the hearing, Congress came across as seeing all problems in American society as problems TikTok can solve, reduce, or protect.
It won't be easy, and there will be loads of friction and regulation, but I am long TikTok operating amongst the US civilian population for the foreseeable future.
A complete lack of focus on Capitol Hill to prioritize at max three policy issues on China helps TikTok survive.
Congressman Tim Walberg's (R-MI-05) questioning gave up the game.
TikTok is a proxy to show how much Capitol Hill is overwhelmingly frustrated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and concerned with the CCP's global intentions was the foundation of this hearing.
TikTok CEO Shou Chew did well, all things considered - calm, confident, cooperative, and concise. His preparation was world-class, and his manner is a template others in a hearing hot seat should emulate.
Equally, the committee members asked legitimate questions with limited grandstanding, which is amazing, frankly. Plus, the staff did a bang-up job researching and prepping their members.
This was a "welcome to the bigs" hearing for all participants.
The main geopolitical business communications takeaway, from now on, commerce without geopolitics is nearly impossible.
If you need help sorting out how your business will operate in this hothouse, interconnected geopolitical business environment, Caracal is here to help.
Problem-solving communications for business here.
Liberal MP Han Dong secretly advised Chinese diplomat in 2021 to delay freeing Two Michaels: sources Global News
MP Han Dong leaving Liberal caucus, denies allegations of working against release of 2 Michaels: CBC reports will sit as an Independent, vows to refute 'absolutely untrue claims.'
Recommended by LinkedIn
+ @coreyhogan: So either a government MP sold out their countrymen for political gain, our national security apparatus is totally out of control, or a major broadcaster is fabricating things. Cool. Cool.
Biden and Trudeau to mix thorny issues with niceties: Immigration, Haiti, and defense spending are among the touchy issues the two leaders are expected to tackle. Politico
US, Canada reach deal to turn back migrants crossing northern border illegally: WSJ reports an agreement expected to be announced during President Biden’s meetings with Canadian prime minister.
AP: Biden approval dips near lowest point: AP-NORC poll
+ The president notched an approval rating of 38% in the new poll, after 45% said they approved in February and 41% in January.
+ @jcroe: No way this cat (Joe Biden) runs for reelection. It’s why they are trying rehab Harris and why Whitmer is ramming through a left wing agenda - after accomplishing nothing in her first term she’s trying to build a record to run on.
Jeff Zients discovers the thanklessness of the White House chief of staff gig: It’s early, but Biden’s new chief of staff and his leadership style have drawn some detractors. Politico
+ The grumbling has already begun over Joe Biden’s new chief of staff.
+ Less than two months into his role as top White House aide, Jeff Zients faces frustration among progressives who see his influence behind Biden’s recent tack toward the center.
+ Inside and outside the administration, there is concern over whether Zients has the political instincts and Capitol Hill relationships to deftly navigate a crucial period ahead of Biden’s anticipated reelection run.
Never Don and never Ron: The rest of the GOP field looks for a third lane: They want to change the notion that it’s a two-person race. And they think there is a formula to do so. Politico
DeSantis calls Putin a ‘war criminal,’ clarifying earlier comment on Ukraine: The Florida governor and presumed GOP presidential candidate previously described the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a “territorial dispute” and did not mention the Russian president. NYT
The DeSantis foreign policy: Hard power, but with a high bar: The Florida governor has never been the internationalist that some old-guard Republicans wanted or imagined him to be. A close reading of his record reveals how he might lead the US abroad. NYT
DeSantis-aligned PAC staffs up, brings on Ted Cruz’s campaign manager: The move is the latest indication of a run to come, and a bruising one at that. Politico
The wrong indictment against Trump: Stormy Daniels wasn’t an offense against America. Focus on Georgia and the Jan. 6 riots instead. Peggy Noonan
Indicting Donald Trump is a gift from his enemies: Whether or not the former president is convicted for paying a porn star, he can claim he is a victim of the establishment. Gerard Baker
Sinema trashes Dems: ‘Old dudes eating Jell-O’: The Arizona senator courts GOP donors by ridiculing her former Democratic colleagues. Politico
+ “Old dudes are eating Jell-O, everyone is talking about how great they are. I don’t really need to be there for that. That’s an hour and a half twice a week that I can get back.”
+ “The Northerners and the Westerners put cool whip on their Jell-O, and the Southerners put cottage cheese.”
Major alcohol trade group announces support for weed legalization: Politico reports the Wine and Spirits Wholesalers of America is formally changing its stance on cannabis decriminalization and regulation.
Utah to require parental consent for children to use social media: WSJ reports new laws will also require companies to block minors’ access to accounts from 10:30 pm to 6:30 am.
WP: Utah governor signs bill to curb use of social media by children and teens
Web 3.0 is going swimmingly...
Artificial intelligence already has the same problems as social media: ChatGPT and its rivals are accused of being 'woke' but also of creating dangerous content. Alexandre Piquard
Risk of ‘industrial capture’ looms over AI revolution: A handful of individuals and corporations now control much of the resources and knowledge in the sector. Madhumita Murgia
Our space junk problem just got a cheap solution: We’re getting better at spotting and dodging debris in orbit — a much more cost-effective option than spending billions on cosmic robot cleaners. Adam Minter
+ Space junk is a well-documented, growing problem for companies that have invested tens of billions of dollars building, launching and operating satellites that circle the planet collecting and transmitting data, including broadband internet, military communications and weather observation.
+ Today, in addition to roughly 7,200 working satellites occupying orbit, there are about 36,500 objects greater than 4 inches in size (including 2,500 dead satellites), 1 million pieces of debris between .4 and 4 inches, and 130 million pieces of debris less than .4 inches.
FT: Ford forecasts electric vehicle division will lose $3bn this year
Why Ford can afford to lose billions on EVs: Federal subsidies and gasoline-powered trucks make the business too big to fail. WSJ - Editorial
+ The entire point of last year’s Inflation Reduction Act is to make EV production too big to fail.
+ If consumers don’t want to buy EVs, for whatever reason, the government will keep subsidizing or mandating EVs until they do.
To be clean, you need a whole lot of green...
The Times: Accenture cuts 19,000 jobs on slowdown fears
In Scotland, making whisky with energy from wind, wood chips, and tides WP
+ The owners of the 140 distilleries in Scotland have pledged, voluntarily, to transform the industry and make their operations “net-zero” in carbon emissions by 2040, a decade earlier than Britain as a whole and five years earlier than Scotland has promised.
+ The Scotch Whisky Association wants consumers to imagine a future when the old-time distilleries turn away from fossil fuels and toward energy generated by wind and wood chips, by ocean tides and 21st-century green hydrogen.
+ ScottishPower has begun to build the Cromarty Hydrogen Project, north of Inverness, which will use offshore wind to make green hydrogen on shore, which will be available to a hub of businesses, including the whisky maker Glenmorangie, in an industrial area.
+ “The next generation of distillery will likely be hydrogen. That is one version of the future. But when we looked at it, it’s still 10 years out. It wasn’t there yet. So it made most sense for us to use biomass, with our trees. But in the future, who knows?”
+ In its defense, the whisky industry says it uses less than 1 percent of the total peat that is extracted annually in Britain.
+ The challenge is acute enough that even Whisky Magazine — a booster — concluded, “any way you cut it, one of the most important ingredients in whisky making is a fossil fuel — and that’s not even the worst part.”
HBO and Netflix are deciding where you’ll take your next vacation: A new study shows travelers are being inspired by TV and movies in greater numbers when planning travel. Bloomberg
+ Call it the White Lotus effect.
White Lotus is getting pitched by cities like Amazon HQ2 sweepstakes.
+ In a new report from American Express, 70% of Gen-Z and Millennials travelers say they have been inspired to travel to a destination after seeing it on screen.
+ It’s almost as high as the impact of social media: 75% of all respondents say they’d traveled to places after seeing friends or others post about their trips.
+ Web traffic to the Four Seasons Maui site increased 425% year-over-year during season one alone, according to Four Seasons. And all those binge-watchers tuning into HBO on Sunday nights has had a big effect on bookings in Sicily.
+ “It’s not just Four Seasons that has benefitted. Rocco Forte and Belmond have hotels in Sicily and they’ve all picked up demand on the back of the series, even though it wasn’t shot there.”
+ Want to get ahead of the next set-jet crowds? Keep an eye out for the announcement of the next White Lotus filming location.
+ After drawing crowds to Hawaii and Sicily, season three will reportedly be set in Asia.
World Track and Field bans transgender athletes from women’s events: WSJ reports the sport’s international governing body, World Athletics, will exclude athletes who’ve undergone male puberty from female categories.
FT: World Athletics upholds ban on Russian athletes ahead of Paris Olympics
The surfer, the scientist, and the big-wave beach at a breaking point Sally Jenkins
+ “Surfers I think are unique in that they're tying the science back to the physical experience of humans”
+ Rising sea levels can also have a flattening, wave-killing effect on the surf break. Mavericks forms so far out that coastal erosion doesn’t directly affect it — the 5 million-year-old paleo seabed “won’t break apart within our species lifetime, let alone my lifetime,” Washburn says. But when atmospheric rivers coincide with King tides and higher sea levels, it makes Mavericks’ reef deeper. “And, basically, you’ll have a different dynamic,” Janssen says.
+ The water wins, as it always does.
NBA ‘Bad Boy’ wants players to do as he says, not as his teams did: Joe Dumars was on the 1980s Detroit Pistons teams known for their hard fouls. But players and coaches who step out of line today can expect fines and suspensions — from him. NYT
+ Joe Dumars is in his first season as the NBA’s vice president, head of basketball operations in charge of discipline and rule-making.
+ “You’re just a steward of the game,” Dumars said. “You have to be there to protect the game and make sure that it’s clean. There’s always something. There will be something.”
Pickleball will soon swallow Central Park whole Clio Chang
+ Central Park’s Wollman Rink will soon be home to 14 pickleball courts.
+ Last summer, the ice-skating rink was transformed into a roller disco. But now roller disco is dead and pickleball, with its weird little paddles, will rule the park — at least for this summer.
Apple is said to be weighing a bid for streaming rights for English Premier League soccer matches.
When does Apple take over US Soccer and start picking the national teams?
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry.
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