If Trump Wins, the Philippines Better Have a Good Back-Up Plan

In February, I wrote a column that wondered, “If Trump Wins, What Happens to the Philippines?” Back then, it was an open-ended question. Today, the answer is becoming increasingly apparent.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the former president reiterated his ambivalence to support Taiwan unconditionally should China one day invade the island: 

I think, Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China’s a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it.

This rhetoric should raise alarm bells for Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., who has been facing down Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and would look to the U.S. for support if the situation were to escalate.

If Trump wants to pull American forces back from South Korea and Japan, as he’s stated repeatedly, withdraw from NATO, and barter Taiwan for a trade deal with China, then it’s somewhat delusional to think that he and his isolationist VP are going to get into a shooting war with China over shoals in the South China Sea.

Some may argue that the Philippines isn’t Taiwan and the U.S. has a different set of obligations to Manila as a formal treaty partner. That may be true under the current administration, but Trump has made it clear he doesn’t value those alliances anywhere near as much as his predecessors.

To be fair, Trump hasn’t won yet, and the election is still many months away. A lot can happen between now and November 5th.

But given Trump’s current momentum in the race and today’s news that 81-year-old U.S. president Joe Biden has COVID, Manila would be wise to prepare for a new era where it can no longer rely on the U.S. as a reliable security partner.