It’s time to double down on being human

It’s been a strange summer on the East Coast of Australia. The fires have of course dominated all our thinking. Who hasn’t spent the summer checking the Fires Near Me App obsessively, fearing for friends, family, animals and property? There has been an endless stream of horrible news about vast parts of the Australian bush burning, towns being destroyed and people and animals losing their lives.

There have also been many inspiring stories: The woman who saved the koala from burning, the neighbours who look after each other when houses burnt down, the firefighters who work tirelessly to get these mega-blazes under control and the donations of money and goods that keep pouring in from all over Australia. The fact that to-date far less people died than in the Black Saturday fires 10 years ago is also a relief. Nonetheless, as we start the new decade, all of this has created a subdued summer mood, so different from what this period of endless beach and party time usually holds.

There has been a lot of reflection, personally and in the media, about how the last decade shaped us, how we got here and where we might be going – as a human species and as a nation. What stands out for me is that technology became ubiquitous during the last ten years, with smart phones and the internet of things transforming our personal relationships, transport, entertainment, work, political engagement and construct of identity in all-encompassing ways. Half way through the decade, we recognised that the fourth industrial revolution was well underway and had already changed us. We still remembered that not too long ago the people we were with and the places we were in seemed engaging enough. Then, limitless digital connectivity transformed our lives with people everywhere now focussed more on their smart phones than the people and places around them.

It’s also important to remember that many great things happened over the last ten years. As Nicolas Kristoff writes in the NY Times, more people than ever received access to electricity, water or the internet. Child mortality dropped to 4% globally and there has been a consistent reduction in global poverty. That does not mean, we have no problems on this planet, but progress has been made.

In Australia, political commentators described the last ten years as a “wasted decade” with too much of an internal political focus, too many prime ministers and not enough real leadership. And there is truth in this. Maybe there was too much distraction from the main game. Despite numerous warnings, Australia today is not ready to deal with the climate emergency we are facing, in fact some are still denying that our situation has anything to do with climate change. Our economy has not been modernised enough to replace outdated industries and stay competitive. Not much has been done to re-build the trust in institutions of government and business that is so badly needed at a time when we transition into a new world order, dominated by changing geopolitical and trade relationships, climate change and technology. 

It’s always easy to critique the past (because we were there and know what happened) and it’s impossible to predict the future, especially as things seem to get more and more complex. Our expectation of ongoing “progress” towards a better world might continue to be challenged in the next decade – or we might be positively surprised. What might the next decade hold? Here are my top five themes:

1.      The reality of climate change will become apparent in numerous ways with us hitting peak energy related greenhouse gas emissions and a 2% temperature rise by 2030. This will have major human, environmental and economic costs unless we take urgent action. The trend to renewables and net zero targets enshrined in law will get stronger.

2.      Geopolitics will be volatile and dangerous with India and China accounting for 35% of global GDP growth by the end of the decade, usurping the US from its global economic leadership position. Indonesia will be the world’s fourth largest economy by the end of the decade. Our old concepts of the West and the East will be challenged requiring a repositioning of relationships and alliances for many countries, including Australia, and the reinvention of geo-strategic institutions.

3.      The internet and technology development will further fracture into two or more parts, with different services and products but also laws and regulations depending on where you live. This will also impact the big tech companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, WeChat, Alibaba etc. as they aim to expand the scope and scale of their operations.

4.      AI, the intelligence of things and other emerging technologies will be all around us driving optimisation processes, efficiencies, new services and products. This will have a fundamental impact on how we create value and organise our world of work but also how we regulate AI in an ethical and legal framework.

5.      Well-being related industries – from exercise and mindfulness to eating less meat and breathing cleaner air - will gain more strength. Technology will put customers in control of their own data as the health and wellness sector moves towards being more inclusive, accessible and connected anywhere anytime.

Audette Exel from Adara group recently pointed out the last ten years might have created a context where people moved from being observers to being participants. With this amount of change underway, we will have to make active choices, as individuals and citizens, as business and government leaders and as humans on this planet. In the next decade, smart leadership and a strong civil society will really matter, locally and globally, as we transition to a new world. 

It can be hard to be optimistic in the face of environmental destruction through bushfires or the threat of war between the US and Iran. But I am reminded that almost every generation before us had to go through significant change and trauma. Think of the horrors of the first and second world wars, the hunger and despair of the Great Depression or the pain and destruction people endured over the last decade in Syria. The challenges we are facing remain huge but it’s important to remember that even in the face of adversity many peoples’ lives got better.

Now we need to do what the technology writer Jaron Lanier describes as “doubling down on being human”. And that means working together to make the world a better place for us and future generations. That is the challenge and the opportunity for the next 10 years.