“There are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen”

Over recent weeks, decades of change seem to have happened. We have gone from:

-         Lots of problems to a focus on one big problem

-         Productivity growth and certain sectors at risk, to the whole economy at risk

-         Globalisation to uncoupling supply chains

-         Purchasing just-in-time to stockpiling and stashing

-         Working in physical spaces to working digitally 

-         Commuting to work every day to being at home with the family

-         Caring about our appearance at work to caring about the appearance of our home office

-         Thinking there was too much technology to experiencing technology limitations

-         Resenting the distraction of technology in our personal lives to relying on it for social contact

One could argue that we have substantially accelerated the systemic transition from the 20th to the 21st century in just a matter of weeks. We have also seen that suddenly long argued for changes such as access to free child care or a realistic level of welfare payments have been possible within a matter of days. Discussions about how to prevent worsening inequality, the need for solidarity and kindness, and the importance of equal access to the internet and technology have never received more airplay and bi-partisan engagement than now.

Whichever way we look at it, 2020 is shaping up to be one of the most disruptive years in centuries, with far reaching social, economic and political implications. At this point we are in the dark about many things: we do not know how badly countries will ultimately be affected, how many people will die and whether the experience of this pandemic will strengthen or weaken the fabric of our societies. Nonetheless, this is a great moment to contemplate what this new global reality might mean for the future of Australia, a topic that I had discussed with many CEOs, non-executive board members and government leaders before the pandemic as part of EY’s Conversation with the Nation.When we looked in the mirror comparing ourselves to other countries we found that our perception of ourselves was somewhat distorted with declining comparative performance in education, technology infrastructure, ease of doing business, R&D investment, gender equality, trust in institutions and an economy that is lacking diversification.

Last week I shared EYQ’s framework of NOW, NEXT and BEYOND in COVID-19 – A Time Machine to the Future as a way of structuring thoughts and plans past the current crisis management. I was asking:

In the NOW – Are we managing through this crisis with purpose and humanity?

In the NEXT – Are we setting strategy just to get through or to transform?

In the Beyond – What will change forever and what will WE change forever as a result of this crisis?

COVID-19 is not just a threat, it is also an opportunity to revive Australia’s position in a world that was already changing rapidly as a result of technology, climate change and geo-political turmoil. Given this context, what if one applied the NOW/ NEXT/ BEYOND model to the whole country?

The NOW

This crisis asks for Government coordination and informed public action – all of which we are seeing, keeping Australians relatively safe under challenging circumstances. We have changed our way of living, grounded planes, closed borders and adjusted the way large parts of the population work. Whether one agrees with the details of the social support initiatives from the federal government or not – they are an effort to minimise the social and economic fall-out of this pandemic and support business continuity as much as possible. We are also seeing an unprecedented level of collaboration between government, opposition, business, unions and citizens. Does this have to be confined to a crisis or should we aim to make it the new normal?

The NEXT

This is where it gets tricky. At what point can we roll back social distancing measures and how will we restart the economy? We have quite abruptly moved into the digital age which is essential to staying globally competitive but has unearthed new challenges for the way work will be constructed in future. Are we making sure the benefits of this continue or will we just return to previous modes of operating? Importantly, could this move to using technology lead to faster adoption of automation at a time when we are potentially facing high unemployment anyway? Further, Australia has seen the short-comings of our supply chain dependencies. Should we therefore return to some form of onshoring of manufacturing or supply chain redundancy, for example in relation to pharmaceuticals? Are we asking: what is possible now that might not have been palatable before and how are we using this moment to position as global leaders, for example in health research and renewable energy?

The Beyond

None of us know what will change forever as a result of COVID-19 – but we have some choices to make. We might finally act on the longstanding rhetoric that Australia is part of Asia and play a different role in a world that is slowly de-Westernising. We might rearrange our supply and production lines while actively participating in the global economy. We might see a flurry of innovation that receives greater investment to scale and commercialise in Australia instead of moving overseas. We might see a move away from cities if proximity to jobs is no longer required. We might recognise the need to improve our fixed-line internet access and other infrastructure to stay competitive internationally. We might see more effort to reduce inequality, even once the pandemic is over. We might even see less ageism and ongoing support and respect for older generations. And we might learn that drastic action can be taken when necessary and apply this to our response to climate change.

One thing is sure – this is not just about immediate crisis management. This crisis is a huge test of our effectiveness in managing economic and social transformations. It could accelerate or slow our global competitiveness and quality of life.

The way we manage through this situation, however long it may take, will determine our ability to ensure prosperity and a functioning society in future. It will take all spheres of society – government, business and citizens – to write the narrative for a post-Covid-19 Australia. What we are seeing NOW gives reason for optimism.