Knife Crime and punishment: 2024

It is fair to say, I believe, that the current knife crime debate is on the whole referring to street crime committed by juvenile males and it's direct effects on our society as a whole. Young teenagers to mid twenties is where most criticism, for good reason, is aimed. For that reason I will try to keep my arguments in that age group, although I may have to defer to other information for context at times.

There are an abundance of research papers published on the theme of modern crime waves. All are written by respected experts in their field and for the most part are ignored by politicians if not governments, media, the general public and of course police chiefs, in favour of populist scaremongering constantly available on social media for example. All these papers point to a downward trend in crime, juvenile delinquency (and knife crime in particular) over a 30 year period from the 1990’s to the 2020’s. Straight lines are few and far between in research figures but the trend is obvious and consistently downward.

Declining trends are also evident in youth delinquency in a number of Western countries, such as Sweden, Spain, Denmark, England and Wales, and the U.S. (e.g., Andersen et al., 2016; Baumer et al., 2021; Fernández-Molina & Bartolomé Gutiérrez, 2020; Griffiths & Norris, 2020; McCarthy, 2021; Puzzanchera, 2022; Svensson & Oberwittler, 2021), along with youth risk behaviour in general (Ball et al., 2023). For example. 

I will try to give my point of view without referencing too much academic work on the subject although some may be inevitable and other quotes will be added towards the end of this article.

Some years contained spikes in relation to the immediately preceding years and we may well be living through one such spike currently, time will tell but the numbers especially in relation to knife crime are staggeringly clear. Our current ‘worst year' is only slightly more than 25% of our figures 20 years ago. And that my friends is not an increase, it is a decline, a considerably significant decline, of which we should all be pleased and grateful, and we probably would be if we were not constantly bombarded with scaremongering in the form of  erroneous figures, news reports and TikToks that suggest the contrary.

A sharp rise of 5-10% may be applicable to the lowest recorded year a couple of years ago and that is the rise most wish to draw attention to, but all professionally recognised research still shows an historic decline.

You, us and our youth are living in one of the safest periods ever known to humankind! Period.

I am not particularly interested in this debate from a political point of view. The facts remain regardless as to which position you take politically.

I teach violence and violence management and politics has very little influence in the outcome of either!

I should also state before we go too deep that a basic ‘Google’ search will bring up the more populist data, and subsequent regurgitation of that data, (the stuff I am trying to debunk) long before the truth is discovered, so please take the time to dig deep when studying such an important subject as once trusted fountains of news and knowledge tend to too often, cut and paste with little or no oversight. Indeed a recent government report went viral in the UK, however, not only was it a misrepresentation of a very small piece of a very large report, the majority of that report contradicted the viral quote. 

No social engineering going on there then!

The rise in knife crime is constantly in the news and in the posts of Police officers (serving and retired), legal advisors, politically motivated ‘influencers’/commentators and of course self-defence instructors and there is much to be gleaned from some of the input of many of these experts.

However there is also much erroneous and often completely false information being reported, copied and reposted without even taking more than the most basic of superficial looks at the very complex subject that is Crime and Punishment.

I will try to shine a light on the various aspects that I believe contribute to this complex argument, many of which are constantly overlooked or indeed ignored, replaced with knee jerk reactions and mob mentality. 

Law and order is something most have opinions on.  Many however have little or no first hand knowledge of the subject and do little more than repost and regurgitate the clickbait headlines posted for that purpose alone. 

Short, often edited, video clips can portray almost any agenda, and are too often used in an attempt to discern credibility, the professionalism of the protagonists, or the account owner, and to destroy the reputations of unknowns caught on camera, and at the mercy of the opinions of ill-informed, often self-proclaimed experts.

I will try to outline what are the major contributing factors relating to our modern violence crime wave; age specific, knife specific street violence.

The weapon of choice for fear management and for the commissioning of a UK crime. 

Racial profiling, Immigration (1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation): As race and immigration figure high on the list of reasons pouted, especially on social media, for the rise in knife crime in particular, I shall start here.

The claim that knife crime in the UK is driven by immigration from specific countries where violent crime may be more common is not supported by any of the credible data available. Studies show that factors driving knife crime are overwhelmingly related to local socioeconomic conditions rather than the cultural backgrounds of immigrants. Studies on crime in the UK generally find no strong correlation between immigration levels and violent crime, including knife crime. Immigrant crime rates in general tend to be lower than those of native-born individuals.

Cities like London have diverse populations, including both long-standing and recent immigrants, and knife crime hotspots align with areas of high deprivation rather than particular immigrant demographics.

Some racially motivated Self defence Influences have based their whole sales pitch around combatting immigrant attacks (especially on women) for example. An argument that has been completely debunked by professionals in the field of policing and crime management. 

Research across Europe, including a 2013 study in the journal Crime and Justice and a 2021 report by the UK’s Migration Advisory Committee, has found that immigrants tend to have lower crime rates, especially violent crime rates, than the native-born population.

Media reporting: The Centre for Media Monitoring in the UK has documented racial bias in media reporting, noting that “crimes involving immigrants or ethnic minorities often receive disproportionate attention. This reinforces stereotypes without a statistical basis”. While media reports sometimes suggest that immigrants increase knife crime, statistical and academic evidence does not support this claim. Socioeconomic deprivation, youth gang involvement, and drug trade connections are the strongest predictors of knife crime. 

There is no credible data that links specific immigrant groups or countries of origin to higher knife crime rates in the UK.

Inaccuracies, bias, erroneous or deliberately misleading reporting is also easily available through almost all media and social media outlets. Strict vetting policy should be applied personally by you, and it is extremely important to fact check everything and everyone, myself included, before reposting. Many outlets prey on our gullibility and our own personal biases. 

Whole industries exist with the sole intention of manipulating, social engineering the general public's opinion with specific outcomes in mind, be they political or economical. 

Coercive Persuasion: An advertising phenomenon. The more you hear the same news the more likely we are to believe it, and that is dangerous when dealing with media outlets with millions of  pounds/dollars of investment or influencers with millions of viewers /followers.

As a youngster my Dad taught me to be suspicious as to where the information came from and how me knowing that information might benefit those that told me! A little paranoid maybe but it has served me well over the years!

Political Influence and Election Interference: Economic Manipulation: Public Health and Safety Influence: Brand and Reputation Management (or Sabotage): Cybersecurity Breaches and Phishing: Polarisation and division, erosion of trust. All consequences of social engineering, as is:

Deepfakes and Fake News: Advanced technologies allow for the creation of fake videos or images, adding a visual layer of credibility to misinformation. Similarly, fake news sites or articles can create a facade of legitimacy for fabricated stories.

Psychology of the perpetrator:  We have to learn to see things from the other side of the fence if we wish to further  reduce crime in general and knife crime in particular. 

Understanding teens and young adults is something most adults do very poorly. On top of that there is the fact that adolescent males are biologically wired to prioritise social connections and peer approval, partly due to the evolutionary importance of social bonding in adolescence.                                              

Juvenile males are also more likely to take risks when observed by peers. Whilst group dynamics can diffuse individual accountability. 

A powerful motivation for young men in particular to gravitate towards fringe groups, criminal activity,  gang lifestyle and the use of ‘Social aggression’ which if left unchecked can easily morph into violence. 

Violence is physical and performed with intent. Everything else is aggression, something that is never debated by those who have encountered it!

What is easily deduced from the extensive research is that social and environmental influences play an enormous part in whether a youth has a “passing phase” or becomes a career criminal.

It is no secret that juveniles of both sexes experiment with the prohibited, I think we all did it at some period during our adolescence, most learned that nothing good comes from it. We learned and moved on. 

Temptation was always there, outside the realms of what is believed to be correct, or the “right way” of doing things, we were rebels if only for a day! Whether that be punk rock clothing, Skin/head Ska Reggae, Football Trendies, New Romantics, Goths, Punks, whatever it is all part of the same psychology and can also lead to gang membership and religious radicalisation. 

Some of that rebellion was criminal behaviour, some of it wasn’t but it is now, which as we will see later can also affect the rising crime perceptions. 

Rebellious behaviour is not necessarily criminal and definitely should not include violence and knife crime, but it is recognised that “from small acorns great oak trees grow” and all serious crime started somewhere else. Catching these signs early and applying the right type of correction is what reduces serious crime spikes and the evidence clearly shows this. Of course we are not so quick to blame our bad parenting as to blame every other possible influence on our youths behaviour, and that is an introspection that is well in need of serious effort on the behalf of all who have gone before.

Rehabilitation and sentencing as a deterrent:  Research by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) shows that individuals who receive tailored rehabilitation programs are less likely to reoffend compared to those who receive punitive sentences alone. 

Important when taken into consideration that knife crime is seldom the first crime a youth commits, it is too often part of their criminal evolution!

Studies in the United States and Europe suggest that prisons often fail to rehabilitate offenders and may even increase re-offending rates for certain groups. This is often attributed to the negative effects of incarceration, such as the stigma associated with prison time, limited post-release support, and exposure to criminal networks and often extreme violence while incarcerated. Rehabilitation tends to be especially effective for first-time and low-risk offenders. Programs focusing on education, employment skills, and social integration help these individuals reintegrate into society, lowering the likelihood of re-offending. For example, Scandinavian countries, which focus on rehabilitation, have some of the lowest recidivism rates globally, and these systems prioritise community-based programs over incarceration, especially for low-risk and first/time offenders.

I am in no doubt that sentencing and longer prison terms may be necessary for high-risk, violent, or repeat offenders to protect society and act as a strong deterrent, there is no argument there, I believe. For such offenders, strict sentencing can reduce the immediate threat they pose to society. But if anything other than a life sentence is applied, rehabilitation is a necessity.

Education both from the family and the community creates the framework for the reeducation of violent criminals and this can be seen when individualised rehabilitation programs are offered to offenders.

Lack of financing and political enthusiasm for such programs has meant that they are often general in nature and weak in application. Politicians from the left or the right secure more votes offering punishment than rehabilitation and it has long since been that way. There is no incentive for them to change.

I have personally interviewed hundreds of inmates convicted of violent crimes and not a single one ever told me that they thought about the sentence they may receive if convicted in terms that would have prevented them committing the crime. 

Regardless as to whether it was a two year sentence for assault or multiple life sentences for multiple murder or terrorism charges, they believed what they did at the time was the right choice. I believe that yes far too often it was a choice! Often a choice made on bad intelligence received or bad interpretation of the intelligence received.

There are convicted criminals who ‘broke’ in a moment of stress or committed a crime of passion fuelled by jealousy or rage, they however are much more likely to be a danger to their loved ones than to the general public at large.

The post that led to me ‘finally’ writing this one, specifically related to knife crime, was accompanied by a video of a man who had killed, in his home, a relative, with a kitchen knife. 

Not really relevant to the fearmongering bogeyman crimewave that has ‘allegedly’ been visited upon our fair isle!

Others, career criminals and gang members, either never consider the consequences or accept them wholeheartedly as part of their lifestyle. 

“In this life you get rich or die trying, incarceration is a by product of what we do”.

For those old enough to remember the opening scene from Ronnie Barker's Porridge TV series comes to mind here.

Porridge Theme

“Norman Stanley Fletcher…”

Be honest, who didn’t favour the criminal over the guard?

Studies show that the perceived certainty of punishment is a stronger deterrent than the severity of punishment. In other words, people are less deterred by long sentences and more deterred by the high likelihood of being caught and punished.

So with that said I believe from a point of view of lessening knife crime, harsher sentencing is not the answer. The maths alone don’t justify it. It is much cheaper to prevent violent crime in the playground than punish it in the prison, under current guidelines. Maybe putting more Bobbies back on the beat and fostering community engagement would be an answer but that ship may well have sailed now. 

Rehabilitation programs, though costly, tend to be more cost-effective in the long term than lengthy prison sentences. Programs that provide education, vocational training, mental health support, and addiction treatment are expensive to run, but they reduce future criminal justice costs by lowering recidivism rates, and as was mentioned previously although knife crime can be a first offence it is more often not! 

In the USA the RAND Corporation found that inmates who participate in correctional education programs have a 43% lower chance of recidivating than those who do not, leading to significant cost savings for society. Lengthy prison sentences are costly due to housing, feeding, and securing prisoners over long periods.

Maybe if corporal punishment or forced labour were reintroduced to the justice systems things might be different. A harsher prison system, (no tv, no hot water, only minimal food allowance, harsher living conditions) on the back of shorter sentences may create a less ‘boys club’ atmosphere.

There is an assumption both within and without the justice system that if criminals fear going to prison  less people would reoffend, but there is actually no reliable data to support that.

Retraining for the labour market and prison work that paid reasonable wages so the prisoner could help support family members could create in many the work ethic that could be carried on once freed. Something no prison regime cares to implement when slave labour boosts their coffers! Understandable from one point of view, but then everything is understandable from one point of view, but what happened to empathy for the greater good. Remember I am talking here of those that haven’t yet committed murderous crimes.

The three strikes system, to me, seems counterproductive too. If a third, but still minor crime will get you a harsh or even life sentence solely because it was your third strike, why wouldn’t you commit a serious crime. “You might as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb” as the old saying goes.

If crucifixion doesn’t prevent theft what exactly will prevent knife crime?

All types of punishment have been tried at some time or place in history, and none have seen especially high benefits from a reduction in serious violent crime point of view. A balanced approach that combines elements of both rehabilitation and sentencing is likely to yield the best results, providing an opportunity for reform while maintaining accountability and protection for society, could be argued.

Perception of knife crime vs reality! There are many misconceptions in relation to knife crime. The biggest is probably how it affects your life. For the grand part it doesn’t.

By far and away the largest group affected by knife crime are juvenile boys. Sixteen to twenty four. Generally speaking they commit crimes of violence against each other and have no care of the consequences. The motives of the crime are generally related to their version of a lack of respect, loss of economic benefits or as part of a coming of age initiation to join a gang. None of which will have any effect on the majority of readers of this article!

The reasons these crimes relate to this particular demographic, as mentioned earlier are both social, economic and biological.

Knife crime has not risen to the heights some would like us to believe. By creating a fear and then presenting themselves as the saviours governments get more control over us as a whole. 

Knife crime may have risen over the last couple of years but it is nowhere near the levels it was when I was a teen. 

That is just a historical fact and no amount of rewriting history and hoping no one will notice will work for me. The ministry of truth did just that. It created lies and made them the new truth. Those who don’t remember the past will believe what they are told!

The year 2003/4 had almost 1000 deaths by knife. I believe the latest available figure shows 254 deaths by knife or other edged weapon, again I say that is not a rise. In 2003/4 as in 2023 the vast majority are due to assault, not robbery, and affect young men in urban areas, particularly London, the North East and the North West. They account for 0.08% of all deaths. The lowest numbers were recorded in 2019/20 at around 51-53 deaths and yes they have risen since then but in scientific terms that would be a glitch.

According to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime's 2019 Global Study on Homicide, knives were the weapon of choice in 97,183 homicides in 2017, a full 22% of the world's total. Knife attacks and stabbing deaths occur all over the globe. That said, the frequency of knife-related violence (which includes not only knives but also other "sharp objects" such as scissors or axes) varies greatly from one region to the next.

Has crime changed, evolved into something more complicated? In a way I might argue that it has. As have our policing requirements and requisites. Some believe they have new rights and the law in many places supports these beliefs but policing has not yet found a comfortable way of dealing with these changes. Gender Identification, human rights and personal offence are thrown into a mix with increased, sometimes illegal, multicultural  immigration, religious terrorism and political resistance on a scale seldom seen in a modern democracy.

Immigration legal and illegal has brought its own challenges through the ages. In my lifetime working in security I first came across Greek and Turkish criminal groups. Competing against them were home grown British gangs often containing second and third generation immigrant descendants. Then came Eastern Europeans. Serbian and Albanian gangs imported after Balkan war and the collapse of the soviet satellite states. Each of these Gangs, cliques or illegal enterprises led by high achieving criminals, wanted to expand their enterprises and this of course has a filtering effect on societal crime. Lower down the food chain expansion is also required, and crime rates fluctuate accordingly. However, I stress yet again that this is a very small percentage of a very small percentage, and not a new trend you should automatically fear.

There is an obvious connection between high unemployment, poverty and crime and this has always been the case, all research points to this but it cannot be the only link. Not all unemployed persons or council estate kids become criminals for life. It is however recognised that many do participate in low level criminal activity during their transition into adult life and later ‘grow out of it’ in the natural process.

Youth and Gang Culture: Knife crime in the UK, when studied by experts, has been strongly linked to youth gang involvement, a culture of violence, and as a by-product in some cases, the drug trade. Many youths involved in knife crime have grown up in difficult circumstances that lead to gang involvement as a source of identity, protection, and income. These issues affect British nationals in numbers far exceeding anything related to Immigration.

Youth Crime Prevention Efforts: Community organisations, policing efforts, and youth programs focus on the root causes of knife crime by engaging at-risk youth, improving educational opportunities, and providing alternatives to gang involvement. These initiatives often show success and indicate that addressing socioeconomic factors can be more effective than focusing on castigation in reducing knife crime.

Public Perceptions and Political Narratives: As we have seen, concerns about knife crime are often heightened by media coverage and political narratives that may associate crime with immigration. Studies suggest that public perceptions can be influenced by selective reporting and sensationalised stories that focus on individual cases, even though broader data does not support the narrative often portrayed, of a rise in crime in general and specifically knife crime.

A recent in depth report into youth violence in particularly but youth crime in general produce the following insights 

Alcohol abuse is the Nº1 contributing factor to violence in the demographic we are addressing.

Risk Routines, gang involvement for example is Nº2.

School Truancy Nº3.

Subsequently Parental control is the Nº1 contributing factor in reduction of violence in this group.

In conclusion I would like to say this is not an in-depth technical paper I am merely trying to shine light into some of the less viewed corners of this debate for those who wish to know more. You; if you are still here!!

I restate, with conviction, that Knife crime, although unwanted, is not at the levels some would like you to believe and occasional high profile cases get far too much media attention in relation to the odds of them affecting any of you. 

The demographic for such crimes are well documented and defined, and although tragic when it does, it seldom overflows the boundaries of the criminal fraternity, with the exception of crimes committed within the family nucleus which is a whole other subject. 

Yes, crime can affect the general population and it does. You must be aware of your surroundings at all times. But with the limited exceptions of some specific crimes, of which knife crimes is not one, they are no more a threat to you today than they ever have been and in many cases considerably less!

I teach self defence to those who need it, I have done so for over 40 years, and never use scare tactics to increase my revenue or to inflate my online image and never condone those who very unprofessionally do.

I share my opinions based on more than 50 years travelling through a world of anti-social behaviour, aggression and violence including 30 years+ studying asocial predatory violence on 5 continents and within the penal systems of three of those. I have conducted well over 6000 hours of interviews with convicted violent criminals. Murderers, terrorists, rapists, and home invaders who killed the occupants. As well as cartel hitmen, street robbers who prefer violence to stealth and gang members convicted of multiple murders.  I have used much of the information gained to improve teaching techniques and strategies to help avoid or in some specific cases confront violence.

I have observed, studied and taught behavioural analysis and its application to violence and violence prevention, Conflict management, and the psychology of criminal mindset from the schoolyard to the boardroom and the highest echelons of government across five continents and 45 years.                                                                                                                                       I was nine years old the first time I saw someone stabbed, some 51 years ago, in the UK, the first but not the last. I myself have been stabbed and cut, during numerous contacts with violence and violent intent in both my personal and professional lives. I have suffered home invasion (and attempted home invasion) on three separate occasions, perpetrated by armed assailants with long criminal records and pertaining to internationally recognised criminal organisations. 

It would be fair to say I know a little about violent crime with intent, its actors, causes, cures and prevention.

Should you wish to know more:

We provide Governmental, Corporate, and civilian security services and training in Spain and Latin America.

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Options are available to those who wish to increase their personal safety, the safety of their loved ones or clients, or who wish to advance their careers in Close Protection with professional no-nonsense skillsets.

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The subject matter I cover includes but is not limited to: My D.A.D.A. program. Detect, Avoid, Distract, Attack (CQC). Situational awareness and avoiding problematic situations; Behavioural (people) profiling for your safety; Situational control and tactical conversation; Physical solutions for violent situations; Security at home and protection solutions.

In-person classes can include in-depth physical combative training. The use of physical violence for your safety and security.

If you would like information on any of the above subjects feel free to DM me and we can have an informal "chat" old school style!

Alternatively contact me at: www.insafehands.net

mike@insafehands.net

British Crime Survey (BCS) / Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)

BCS/CSEW data often shows that young men (particularly between ages 16-24) from lower-income backgrounds are more likely to both carry knives and become victims of knife crime, again underscoring socioeconomic and demographic factors over immigration.

• Social interference with the application of law and the grey areas that allow.
• Changing laws that inflate statistics which is often not taken into consideration.
• integration of foreign nationals with different perceptions of violence and its use. Many cultures pose with weapons whilst doing little or no fighting, then mixing with cultures that embrace violence but are unaccustomed to the use of weapons.

Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) Reports

The MAC, an independent body that advises the government on migration issues, has published reports assessing the economic and social impacts of immigration on crime. These reports generally find that immigrants are less likely to engage in criminal activity compared to native-born individuals.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ)

The Centre for Social Justice report provides a deep dive into gang culture, which has been associated with knife crime. It identifies economic deprivation and fractured family structures as the primary factors in youth gang involvement. The report suggests that both British-born individuals and immigrants in deprived areas are susceptible to gang involvement, again highlighting social issues as the driving factor.

Research by University of Oxford and University of Liverpool :                    Research from universities, including a 2019 study by the University of Oxford and University of Liverpool, has examined factors influencing youth violence in the UK. Their studies find that deprivation, social exclusion, and lack of opportunities are key drivers.

London Assembly Police and Crime Committee Reports

Several London Assembly reports examine the rise in knife crime and its contributing factors in the city, which accounts for a significant proportion of knife-related incidents in the UK.

These reports often discuss factors like poverty, family breakdown, and lack of social mobility

Home Office – Serious Violence Strategy

The UK government’s Serious Violence Strategy was introduced to tackle the rise in knife crime, particularly among young people. This report identifies risk factors such as socioeconomic deprivation, lack of youth services, and school exclusion, without suggesting a direct link to immigration. The strategy found that youth violence was often associated with drug trafficking, particularly the "county lines" phenomenon, where gangs exploit young people for drug distribution. This gang activity has a more direct correlation with knife crime than immigration status, although it is not unreasonable to presume that immigrants may form their own gangs.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Crime in England and Wales Reports

The ONS regularly publishes comprehensive reports on crime trends, including statistics on violent crime and knife-related offences. These reports break down crime rates by age, location, socioeconomic factors, and sometimes ethnicity, though they do not usually specify immigration. ONS data consistently shows that knife crime is more prevalent in urban areas with high socioeconomic deprivation, such as London and other major cities, with no correlation directly linking knife crime to immigration.