The Ladybug Curve

Generally speaking, it is a good day today, every day is a good day, some are better than others and I would count waking up to a Tweet by Chuck Schumer about this as qualifying for better...

...except...it is really late in the game!

This newsletter is about climate optimism, as promised, no, I am not reneging. But, as I have outlined in my recent articles it is time to accept that we as a species messed up and that windows of opportunities, that were available to us 40 f$%*^ years ago have closed...that's how old the ideas and strategies are that now finally passed and barely so. Fine, best we could do under the given circumstances...hm...

You might ask, are the measures we thought we needed that long ago still applicable? Well, maybe, but circumstances have changed significantly, so that the strategies needed now are quite a bit different from when we became aware of the problem in the 70s. We need to develop concrete (and pass) ideas quickly that not only work on mitigation but also prepare us for adaptation.

And that takes me to the ladybug curve.

I believe in Germany (and I could be wrong) they sprung the ladybug population curve on us in biology class in grade school. I loved ladybugs. They were not the biting kind, they were cute and generally considered good luck if you had them in your garden because they 'milked' aphids and kept their population in check and kept our fruit trees healthy. I spent hours in the garden observing them doing just that.

Then I learned about the curve and it crushed my world. How could this be? Such useful, beautiful creatures would go through dramatic population cycles as in they'd become so successful in multiplying that there were too many of them that there were not enough aphids for all of them so that they all would die off and the next year there were hardly any ladybugs.

I vividly remember my empathy for the ladybugs skyrocketing when I was sitting in class and learned that this was a natural cycle, that they all had to die off just to then rebuild their population to another all time high a few years later to then die off again...I was terrified for them. It really shook me.

The other day, I am sitting at home in Germany musing about life and where we are headed (back in the USA now). Like an earthquake, I feel my understanding shift at moments notice...in the news that the human population just hit a new high...and a sudden sense of awe overcomes me... I am really not even sure what exactly it is...but it strikes me that what I was thinking somehow, that humans are exempt from such natural cycle is silly...amazed about my conviction until that exact moment that somehow humanity was going to be able able to solve this problem because...what makes us so special? And there it was, in my mind the ladybug population curve and the human species curve converged...just the time scale was different...we have devoured our life sustaining resource with an appetite that is impressive, increased, sped up, enhanced enabled through technology...but the end of the story is going to be the same...

And suddenly I feel an immense sense of relief...I can let myself off the hook some...I can allow myself to let go, accept...a probable ride down on the other side of that curve...and the solutions that it requires...