This week the good and the great descended on Davos for the World Economic Forum for a week of hobnobbing, pontificating and virtue signalling.
Geopolitics, unsurprisingly, appeared top of the agenda. The WEF’s annual report listed interstate armed conflict, geoeconomic confrontation and intrastate violence as top “global risks”. Much was made of the Chinese turning up in force. And attendees reported a general consternation about the geopolitical outlook.
But as Financial Times columnist Janan Ganesh put so well this week (paywall), “A landlocked town in a landlocked nation is a damn fool place to host the World Economic Forum. As the Houthis are giving us occasion to remember, the forum of world economics is the sea.” In his view, one could learn more from visiting Dubai than Davos.
We agree. As we put it in our own piece on Davos this week, “The reality is the WEF is suffering an identity crisis. Its glitz is out of touch with everyday concerns and ongoing conflicts. And its globalisation agenda is failing to resonate, particularly as nationalism rises and schisms widen in the slowing global economy.” Although getting people together always does have a function, especially when that’s getting rarer in other forums.
We especially agree with Ganesh’s point about the importance of maritime trade. Just before Christmas we wrote about the geopolitical threats to global shipping. Our first deep-dive for the year suggested that 2024 could be the year when maritime trade routes are re-drawn (see item 6).
And this week our lead essay tried to give context on precisely who the Houthis are, what is driving their attacks on ships (and Israel), and what is their end-game.
Without wishing to spoil it too much, in short the Houthis are much more than a band of pirates, a ragtag militia or or a mere puppet of Iran. And it will not be easy to persuade them to de-escalate any times soon.
All the more reason to pay close attention to the world that every Davos Man and Davos Woman would describe as increasingly “in flux”, “uncertain” and “contested”.
If you missed this week’s articles in Geopolitical Dispatch’s daily briefs, you can find them below for your convenience - but be sure to click through for our full analysis.
And if you would like to delve deeper with any of our experts at Geopolitical Strategy, do not hesitate to reach out.
- Israel-Iran: Israel is believed to have been behind a missile strike that killed at least five Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Damascus on Saturday. Two Hezbollah militants were killed by an Israeli drone in southern Lebanon on Sunday. Analysis.
- Israel-Palestine: Last week, the US said there was "no way" to secure Israel without a Palestinian state. Benjamin Netanyahu said he opposed this in any scenario. Ex-military chief Gadi Eisenkot said Netanyahu's pledge to defeat Hamas was unrealistic. Analysis.
- Yemen: A US-owned container ship was hit by a Houthi missile, the first confirmed attack after retaliatory US and UK strikes on Yemeni soil last week. Iran sent missiles into Iraq, targeting what it said was a Mossad base. Analysis.
- Iran: Pakistan warned of "serious consequences" after Iran launched airstrikes killing two children. Iran sent missiles into northern Iraq and Syria – attacks it said were against Mossad and Islamic State respectively. Analysis.
- Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia could recognise Israel if a deal could be found to recognise a Palestinian state, the Kingdom's foreign minister said. Riyadh had not yet joined the BRICS group of countries, Saudi Arabia's commerce minister said. Analysis.
- US-Middle East: The US placed Yemen's Houthis back on its list of terrorist groups as the militia hit a second US vessel in almost as many days. Lebanon's Hezbollah rejected a US diplomatic proposal but said it was open to ideas. Analysis.
- Iran-Pakistan: At least nine were killed after Pakistan launched strikes against separatist militants in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province. Iran made similar attacks on Pakistan's side of the border earlier in the week, killing two children. Analysis.
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- Ukraine-Russia: Russia paused operations at its Ust-Lugaoil and gas export terminal near St Petersburg on Sunday after reports of a drone strike. Shelling killed 27 in the Russian-held city of Donetsk on Sunday. Russia captured a village near Kharkiv. Analysis.
- Russia: Hundreds of protesters clashed with police in Bashkortostan after a local anti-war activist was sentenced to four years in a penal colony. The demonstrations, amid -20c weather, were attended by up to an estimated 10,000. Analysis.
- The Balkans: Kosovo Serbs began a petition to oust ethnic Albanian mayors. Thousands marched in Belgrade against the government’s re-election. The president of Bosnia's Serb Republic had his criminal trial adjourned for a third time. Analysis.
- Germany: Hundreds of thousands protested across Germany against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The Bundestag earlier voted to ease naturalisation rules and end restrictions on dual citizenship. Analysis.
- France-Germany: Emmanuel Macron said the opposition National Rally was the party of "easy anger" during a lengthy press conference. Last week, Olaf Scholz praised protests held in various cities against the Alternative for Germany party. Analysis.
- Britain: Rishi Sunak declared victory after defeating a Tory rebellion on his Rwanda asylum bill, saying he would not let international law change his approach. Polls showed the government losing support to the left and right. Analysis.
- Nigeria: The Dangote petroleum refinery, Africa’s largest, began production. The $19 billion project, located on the outskirts of Lagos, will have the capacity to load up to 2,900 trucks per day with fuel for delivery. Analysis.
- Rwanda: Rwanda said it killed a Congolese soldier and captured two others. President Paul Kagame met Antony Blinken in Davos. Two senior Conservatives resigned ahead of a crucial Westminster vote on deportations to Rwanda. Analysis.
- Russia-The Sahel: Russia and Niger had agreed to increase defence ties, Moscow said, two weeks after France closed its embassy. The Central African Republic had made available land for a Russian base near the capital, an official said. Analysis.
- Ethiopia-Somalia: Somalia turned back an Ethiopian flight to Somaliland. Ethiopia said it had acquired ten Su-30 combat jets, plus Turkish UAVs. The son of Somalia's president was fined $910 for killing a Turkish courier in November. Analysis.
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- India: Narendra Modi joined celebrities and business figures on Monday to inaugurate a temple in the city of Ayodhya, built on the site of a 16th-century mosque. Critics described the move as a political launch event disguised as religious ritual. Analysis.
- North Korea: Pyongyang said in a statement it would abandon its policy of reconciliation with the South. Kim Jong Un called for a redraft of the constitution to remove any prospect of a shared Korea, upending decades of official policy. Analysis.
- Taiwan: Nauru officially stopped recognising Taiwan, shifting its diplomatic recognition to the People’s Republic of China. The decision came after Taipei’s election the day before, which returned the Democratic Progressive Party. Analysis.
- China: A one million-tonne lithium deposit has been discovered in Sichuan, Chinese media said Thursday. A separate 14.8 million-tonne deposit was announced in Thailand the same day, but officials on Saturday walked back the claim. Analysis.
- China: China's population fell 0.15% in 2023, the second annual decline, statistics showed. Annualised GDP grew 5.25% in the fourth quarter, versus 4.9% in Q3. December home prices fell at their quickest pace in over eight years. Analysis.
- China-Philippines: The Philippines and China said they agreed to resolve disputes through diplomacy, following talks in Shanghai. Manila denied rumours that soldiers loyal to ex-President Rodrigo Duterte were plotting a coup. Analysis.
- US: Congress agreed to a stopgap bill, extending funding to early March. The House Freedom Caucus sought to inject a border amendment, buoyed by presumptive nominee Donald Trump, who has demanded no compromises. Analysis.
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