Math Don’t Lie: Breaking Down the MVP Debate Between LeBron James and Stephen Curry

The basketball world was set ablaze following the decision to award LeBron James the MVP over Stephen Curry after a thrilling series that saw both players deliver legendary performances. Fans on both sides were quick to voice their opinions, with many questioning the fairness of the decision, especially after the intense final two games.

Amidst the heated debates and countless social media arguments, and after getting impatient waiting for JxmyHighroller to settle the score, I decided to take matters into my own hands and settle the Olympic MVP debate once and all.

Using the Game Score formula—a statistical measure that provides a single number to summarize a player’s performance. I calculated each player’s contributions over the six-game series. But, I added a twist: I weighted Game 5 at 1.5 times its normal value and Game 6 at double its value. Essentially, it's as if we are multiplying every player's stats for game 5 by 1.5 and doubling their stats for game 6.

The Formula: How Game Score Works

Game Score = Points Scored + (0.4 × Field Goals) − (0.7 × Field Goal Attempts) − (0.4 × (Free Throw Attempts − Free Throws)) + (0.7 × Offensive Rebounds) + (0.3 × Defensive Rebounds) + Steals + (0.7 × Assists) + (0.7 × Blocks) − (0.4 × Personal Fouls) − Turnovers

Game Score, developed by basketball statistician John Hollinger, is designed to provide a single number that summarizes a player’s performance in a given game. The components of the formula reflect various aspects of a player’s contribution on the court:

• Points Scored: The most straightforward metric, reflecting how many points the player contributed.
• Field Goals (Made and Attempted): These are weighted to reflect the efficiency and effectiveness of scoring.
• Free Throws (Made and Attempted): Similarly, these are factored in to account for a player’s ability to capitalize on free points.
• Rebounds (Offensive and Defensive): Rebounds are essential for maintaining possession and are split into offensive (more valuable) and defensive categories.
• Steals, Assists, and Blocks: These are defensive and playmaking statistics that contribute positively to the Game Score.
• Personal Fouls and Turnovers: These detract from the score, penalizing players for mistakes and rule violations.

In essence, the Game Score formula aggregates all these aspects into one comprehensive figure, allowing for a more nuanced comparison of player performances across different games.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

After meticulously calculating the weighted averages, the results were shocking. 

LeBron James:

• Game 1: 25.6
• Game 2: 7.9
• Game 3: 13.7
• Game 4: 12.4
• Game 5: 34.8 (weighted 1.5x)
• Game 6: 33.4 (weighted 2x)
• Total Score: 127.8
• Total Weighted Average: 17.04

Stephen Curry:

• Game 1: 10.6
• Game 2: -0.2
• Game 3: 4.4
• Game 4: 6.3
• Game 5: 56.85 (weighted 1.5x)
• Game 6: 48.2 (weighted 2x)
• Total Score: 126.15
• Total Weighted Average: 16.82

Even with the weighted scores, I was in awe of the mathematical significance of Wardell Stephen Curry Jr.'s last two games. Curry's Game Scores of 56.85 and 48.2 in the final two games of the tournament combined for a staggering 105.05, which is more than his combined total of 21.1 in the first four games. 

In fact, Steph’s game score for his final two games is higher than the game scores of every other American player across all six games–with the exception of LeBron James. 

This chart puts into perspective how just two games could have swayed the MVP decision in Curry's favor. The numbers paint a picture of a decision that could have gone either way. While LeBron’s consistency across all six games slightly edges out Curry's weighted average, the sheer dominance of Curry in the final stretch raises the question: Should the MVP be awarded based on consistent performance throughout the tournament, or should it be determined by who steps up when it matters most?

Conclusion: A Debate Worth Having

In the case of LeBron James and Stephen Curry, the debate centers around what we value more: sustained excellence or peak performance—the age-old narrative of LeBron's career. If we weigh the last game by 2.5x, Steph is now slightly ahead with 138.2 to LeBron’s 136.15, with weighted averages of 18.43 to 18.15, respectively. 

It's one of the many reasons I have such a hard time debating between All-Time Greats—a small shift in the degree to which we weigh values can change the entire result. Both approaches have merit, and either player could have justifiably claimed the MVP. 

In the final vote, LeBron’s overall contribution was deemed slightly superior, a decision for which I cannot fault the voters. 

My Final Verdict

I set out to end the Olympic MVP debate, but I could not have imagined how close the numbers were going to be. After much deliberation, looking into the numbers, watching the games, and diving into the intricate details, ultimately, I came to a conclusion. 

Reveal MVP