A messy American democracy seeks new leadership

[Updated on October 7th, 2023 with details of the House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz]

Some of my friends have asked me to help them understand what is happening in the US Government, following the dismissal of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, as leader of the lower chamber of the US Congress.  Although I no longer reside in America, I follow developments there closely and feel I owe them a response, based on what I know and have learned over five decades of experience with American politics.

Anyone who follows major American and British media knows that the Speaker of the House lost his post on Tuesday this week in a motion to vacate the Speakership, in essence a vote of no-confidence in the leader of the House of Representatives, the second chamber of the US Congress.  The motion was introduced in the House of Representatives by a single member of the chamber, a Congressman from the State of Florida under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged unethical conduct. 

(On April 9, 2021, the House Ethics Committee announced that "it would review allegations that Representative Matt Gaetz may have engaged in sexual misconduct and/or illicit drug use, shared inappropriate images or videos on the House floor, misused state identification records, converted campaign funds to personal use, and/or accepted a bribe, improper gratuity, or impermissible gift." This investigation is ongoing.)

Rep. Gaetz submitted his motion using a rule the Speaker had agreed to allowing a single member of the House to initiate consideration of expulsion of the leader in exchange for the support of a faction of the Republican’s House representatives to accept Mr. McCarthy as the Speaker. It was a Devil’s bargain.

The Speaker of the House is 2nd in line for accession to the Presidency of the United States in case the President and Vice-President are incapacitated, killed in an act of war, or assassinated. The Speaker controls the introduction of legislative proposals to the House, as well as various appointments to House Committees that prepare legislation.  He or she is arguably the 3rd most powerful individual in the United States Government, after the President and the Senate Majority Leader.

All members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years, making their composition the part of the American democracy considered closest to the people. (American Presidents are elected for four-year terms; Senators, representing their individual States, every six years in a staggered rotation with approximately 1/3 up for election every two years.) 

The lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, initiates spending bills, the appropriations that fund most Federal (National) Government activities.  Once passed by a majority of the House, these bills go to the upper chamber, the US Senate, where 100 Senators vote – two from each of the 50 American States – on their approval.  When the two chambers disagree, a reconciliation process is begun to iron out the differences between the two chambers, and the final agreement is then voted on by each, before going the President for signature signifying the Executive’s approval, or a veto, i.e., disapproval, as the case may be.

By design, the system is intended to be representative of the will of the People, the authority of the Presidency and the stability of the States, balancing each through this laborious process of passing legislation.

Fundamental to the workings of the Federal Government are the annual appropriations that fund its operations.  About 30% of Federal spending must be appropriated in this way, including such vital services as National Defense and funds for the Military, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, also commonly known as food stamps) and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) assistance to low-income families, along with many others.

Twelve appropriation bills were pending before the House of Representatives, when last Saturday Speaker McCarthy reached an impasse with his own Republicans on advancing the bills needed to prevent the Federal Government from partially shutting down due to disagreements on funding levels.  Earlier he had reached a compromise with the Senate and President on funding but, facing a rebellion from within his own ranks, broke this agreement.  With no path forward to keep the Government open, he advanced legislation to avert the shutdown for 47 days, a so-called continuing resolution allowing more time for negotiation of the budget.  A majority of the Democrats in the House backed his bill and it passed and was soon endorsed by the Senate and signed into law by President Biden.

This infuriated the radical wing of the Republican Party in the House. On Monday, one member initiated a motion to vacate the Speaker and on Tuesday 216 members of the House assented to that motion, against 210 – 96% of the Republicans in the House – who voted against vacating the Speaker.  Speaker McCarthy was thereby removed from his office.

It is notable that all Democratic members of the House present voted for the motion to vacate.  They did so at the bequest of their leadership, which saw no advantage in helping the Republican leader retain his post as Speaker.  Eight Republicans (out of 221) voted in favor of vacating Speaker McCarthy, enough to tip the balance and remove him from the post.

Tellingly, one member considered to be a moderate Republican representative, joined seven hard right members to eject the Speaker.  Of the others, their motives appear to be diverse.  Some were opposed to the compromise the Speaker had made with Democrats to keep the Government open for 47 more days.  Others were personally offended by the Speaker, with one complaining that the Speaker had belittled his religious faith. Some of former President Trump's allies were angered the Speaker had not moved to expunge the President's two impeachments by the House.

From the Democratic side, none believed they could trust Speaker McCarthy, who broke his agreement with the White House and Senate on the budget just days after making it and also backflipped on the question of whether to hold a vote to initiate an impeachment inquiry into President Biden for alleged corruption related to the business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden, before capitulating to the radicals demanding a formal investigation of the President.  There was no love lost between the Speaker and Democrats.

So what happens next?  Two hard right conservatives have thrown their hat in the ring to serve as the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, the House Majority Leader, Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Representative Jim Jordon of Ohio, the chair of the House Judiciary Committee.  Jordan is former founder of the House Freedom Caucus, a hard right group within the Republican Party. He is leading the inquiry into the impeachment of President Biden.

Scalise has the inside track, being quite popular among House Republicans, an able fundraiser (he is said to have raised $170 million for Republican congressional campaigns) and a seasoned leader. 

Jordan is the ‘dark horse’ for the leadership yet has both the support of the ousted Speaker McCarthy’s faction and the admiration and (as of October 5th) the endorsement of the former President Donald Trump.

There may yet be other candidates for the leadership.  No one knows how this contest will end. I have consulted my crystal ball, however, and can make some loose predictions. 

The next leader will not accept the ‘poison chalice’ of the Speakership until the rules are changed to no longer allow a single member of the House to initiate a motion to vacate the Speaker.  That is a procedural change so-called centrists among Republicans are demanding to ensure the House of Representatives can conduct its business without the chaos we’ve seen this year.

Bothe Scalise and Jordan will take that deal.  The next Speaker will be in a stronger position than the last.

The radicals will insist the next Speaker pledge to hold out for deep spending cuts in the Federal budget before agreeing to any appropriations of future spending.  Both candidates will acquiesce to this demand.  That will lead to a partial shutdown of the Federal Government on November 17th. It could last a day or two, or for weeks.  The last Government shutdown lasted 35 days.

Among the casualties of the suspension of discretionary Federal funding will be military aid to Ukraine.  Rep. Jordan is already on record supporting cutting off aid to Ukraine, consistent with former Pres. Trump’s own position (Trump who thinks Putin is a “genius”).  Scalise may capitulate on his support for Ukraine in exchange for support to become the Speaker.

Sorry, that’s politics for you.

Both Reps. Jordan and Scalise opposed the motion to vacate, as did the majority of the members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus.  (The Freedom Caucus's membership is secret. By some counts, it had at least 46 members as of 2022.)

There are other possible outcomes to the leadership contest.  The acting Speaker pro tempore Rep. Patrick McHenry, who temporarily presides over the House with limited powers, may continue indefinitely if the Republicans in the House cannot reach an agreement on whom to anoint as their next leader. McHenry is a strong ally of former Speaker McCarthy and is a conservative who has himself approached the leadership in the past.  His powers are limited yet somewhat undefined, so in the event of a stalemate, he may emerge as a powerful figure in the House.

We are in unchartered territory.

Much has been made of the imagined delight America’s adversaries may be taking seeing the discord at the height of the US Congress.  The chaos, some analysts say, makes American look weak.  Support for Ukraine is a particularly difficult exemplar of such weakness.

I believe these concerns are overblown.  To a foreign dictator’s perspective, all of American democracy looks messy, chaotic, and dysfunctional. This dramatic example of its weaknesses fits their priors about USA’s system of government. 

Against this is the fluidity America shows in dealing with its recurring political crises.  Circumstances dictate change and then change happens, with a certain painful regularity.  The system adapts.

Yes, it is messy.  Dictators could hardly stand for the rapid changes Americans endure from their political system, which nonetheless holds to its constitutional representative system.

Thomas Jefferson, the author of the first 10 amendments to the US Constitution and its 3rd President, once advocated for a revolution to occur every generation in America.  He may yet get his wish.

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The views contained in this article are my own and do not reflect those of Circular Research Foundation.