My Economic, Business, and Tech Predictions for 2024

Around this time every year, I start sharing my predictions for the economic, business, and tech trends that will proliferate in the year ahead. My thoughts over the past few years have turned out to be remarkably accurate. Consider that in 2020, I predicted that COVID-19 would have a larger economic impact than expected; in 2021, I stopped investing in China and cautioned others to do the same; in 2022, I said inflation would displace the pandemic as the biggest issue; and in 2023, I said startup funding would tighten, risk-taking would slow down, and agility would be vital.

Even since I first outlined my thoughts on 2024 earlier this month in @The Innovator, some things have already shifted. The world is changing at an incredible rate, largely driven by the mainstream adoption of AI in 2023. While I usually think about the year ahead with a “top 10 predictions” approach, I think there are four main topics – and many subthemes – that economic, government, and business leaders need to be focused on as we head into 2024. Read on for my take:

1.  First, the “Decade of AI” truly begins. AI will be the most fundamental tech change ever, greater than the internet and cloud combined.

1). AI will go totally mainstream. I first said this was coming back in 2022, and we’ve definitely seen this start in 2023, but 2024 will take it even further – which will cement the shift from the Digital Age to the AI Age.

2.)     2024 will see demand for AI-driven results for every company, which will impact everything from valuations to earnings. Startups that don’t use AI will fail quickly, and larger companies will fail too, albeit more slowly.

3.)     Innovators (early adopters) and CEOs will make AI one of their top 3 business priorities to ensure efficiency and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

4.)     AI will capture even more market and mind share than we think, as new developments roll out throughout the year.

5.)     Companies will struggle with sustainable AI differentiation.

6.)     AI will accelerate overall tech regulation and compliance needs – especially for Big Tech. I anticipate legislation to be in place by next year’s end.

7.)     Regarding social issues with AI, we will continue to see concerns about privacy, as well as increased demand for AI-powered personalization, for Gen Z in particular.

2.     The proliferation of the good and bad AI will be evident from increased cybersecurity challenges.

1.)     After a surprising downturn in 2023 in terms of the overall cybersecurity market, I expect a rebound and acceleration in 2023, due to an uptick in more complex and debilitating cyber attacks and the related financial fallout. The 2023 Clorox breach is case in point, translating to almost $600 million in lost revenue.

2.)     CEOs are already becoming overwhelmed with too many cybersecurity options. In 2024, we will see a shift from standalone cybersecurity products to a simple, architectural approach, which will lead to consolidation in the industry.

3.)     Among the many cyber threats, deep fakes will be the number one issue for individuals, companies, and governments, particularly as we think about the upcoming U.S. Presidential election.

3.     2023 has been a big year for the U.S.-India partnership. India is at a pivotal moment in its history and they will capture it, driving growth and opportunity for years to come.

1.)     India will keep tracking towards ultimately becoming the number one economy in the world (as I predicted back in June, with the Prime Minister by my side).

2.)     The U.S. and India will become the most strategic partnership in the world, driving global innovation and job creation at an accelerating pace.

3.)     These opportunities and growth will be driven by initiatives like Digital and AI India, as well as India’s eagerness for and openness to building collaborative, strategic partnerships with the U.S. and other key global players.

4.     The economy and IPO landscape will see a shift in the tides, reflecting evolving market dynamics and a changing investor sentiment. As a result, cash will be king for both public and private companies.

1.)     While some economists are starting to talk more optimistically, especially in the short-term, there’s still looming uncertainties. I don’t think we’re out of the woods of a potential recession yet.

2.)     After a long dry period, IPOs rebound. That said, we likely will not see this until after the first half of the year, and even then, startups and investors alike should proceed with caution due to market volatility.

3.)     M&A will heat up again, too, after an uncertain 2023.

4.)     2024 will see the fall of the startup decacorn (i.e., startups with a $10B+ valuation). 50% of decacorns and unicorns will drop in valuation and lose their status, but won’t achieve it again.

5.)     However, new unicorns and decacorns are indicators of a country’s innovation, and I’m interested to see what states and countries will lead in developing these leaders.

One of my best skills as a leader is that I have a track record for calling market transitions right, and I look forward to seeing if that continues with my predictions for 2024. We are about to witness a huge ramp up of AI, powering tech and business market transitions at a speed not seen before. There will be many winners and losers, from countries and economies to corporations and startups. I am optimistic that we are going to bypass a recession, inflation will come back under control, and companies will start to invest in growth again – despite interest rates remaining higher for longer than desired.

Overall, 2024 will be a better year than most expect. However, I strongly caveat this with concern for the current geopolitical climate, which is the real wildcard, maybe more than any other time in recent history.

I hope I made you a little uncomfortable with my thinking – if you agree with everything I said, I have failed. As a CEO, what are you focused on as we enter a new year? Let me know in the comments.